ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY- IS THERE A RELATION? CASE - STUDY G7

Öz

Ekonomik belirsizlik, ülkelerin makroekonomik performanslarını ve birçok sektörü önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Bu kapsamda ekonomik belirsizliğin etkilediği sektörlerden birisi de yenilenebilir enerji sektörüdür. Söz konusu sektör nispeten yeni bir sektör olduğu için yüksek maliyetlere sahip ve aynı zamanda sermaye ve teknoloji yoğun bir sektördür. Bu nedenle özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde çoğu yatırım kaleminde olduğu gibi yenilenebi-lir enerji yatırımlarında da yurt içi tasarrufların yanı sıra yurt dışından yabancı sermaye akımlarına ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Yurt dışından sermaye akışı, ülkenin ekonomik istikrarı-na ve uygulanan ekonomi politikasına bağlıdır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada ekonomi politikası belirsizliği ve yenilenebilir enerji yatırımları arasındaki ilişki G7 ülke örneği özelinde Han ve Phillips (2010) metodu yardımı ile, 1997-2021 dönemi için ampirik olarak incelenmiş-tir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, örneklem grubu olarak seçilen ülkelerde ve çalışma periyodu boyunca ekonomi politikası belirsizliğindeki artışların yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarını azalt-tığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği
• Yenilenebilir Enerji Yatırımları
• Panel Veri
• Ekonomik İstikrar

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY- IS THERE A RELATİON? CASE - STUDY G7

Öz

Economic uncertainty significantly affects the macroeconomic performances of countries and many sectors. In this context, one of the sectors affected by economic uncertainty is the renewable energy sector. Since the sector in question is a relatively new sector, it is a capi-tal and technology intensive sector with high costs. For this reason, in addition to domes-tic savings, foreign capital flows from abroad are needed in renewable energy investments, as in most investment items, especially in developing countries. Capital flow from abroad depends on the economic stability of the country and the applied economic policy. In this context, in this study, the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy investments has been empirically examined for the 1997-2021 period, with the help of Han and Phillips (2010) method in the case of G7 countries. The results show that increases in economic policy uncertainty reduce renewable energy investments in the countries selected as the sample group and throughout the study period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic policy uncertainty
• Renewable energy investments
• Panel data
• Economic stability

Kaynakça

1. Ahmed, K. & Raza, S. (2020). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 126, 110708.
2. Arbatlı, E. C., Davis, S. J., Ito, A. ve Miake, N. (2017), "Policy uncertainty in Japan," National Bureau of Economic Research.
3. Arellano M. and Bover O., (1995), "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models", Journal of Econometrics 68; 29-51.
4. Arellano, M. and Bonds S. (1991), "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations", The Review of Economic Studies 58; 277-297.
5. Arellano, M. and Bonds S., (1998), "Dynamic Panel Data Estimation Using DPD98 for Gauss", A Guide for Users.
6. Arelleno M. and Bover O., (1995), "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models", Journal of Econometrics 68; 29-51.
7. Armelius, H., Hull, I. ve Köhler, H. S. (2017), "The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy", Economics Letters, 155, 31–34.
8. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.

9. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
10. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. J. (2016), "Measuring economic policy uncertainty", The quarterly journal of economics, 131(4), 1593–1636.
11. Bakirtaş, İ., & Çetin, M. (2016). Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasın-daki ilişki: G-20 ülkeleri. Sosyoekonomi, 24(28), 131-146.
12. Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA7703
13. Bloom, N. & Baker, S. R. (2017). Policy uncertainty and investment dynamics. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(2), 1-33.
14. Bloom, N., & van Reenen, J. (2013). Uncertainty and economic policy. In Handbook of macroeconomics (pp. 1-49). Elsevier.
15. Bloom, N., Baker, S. R. & Davis, S. J. (2015). Does policy uncertainty rise during reces-sions? National Bureau of Economic Research.
16. Blundell R. and Bond S., (1998), "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models", Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143.
17. Böhringer, C. & Moslener, U. (2013). Energy policy uncertainty, technological innovation and investment. Energy Policy, 62, 687-696.
18. Böhringer, C. & Rohner, D. (2015). Renewable energy, economic growth and the environ-ment: A panel data analysis. Energy Policy, 82, 541-548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.018
19. Cerda, R., Silva, A. ve Valente, J. T. (2016), "Economic policy uncertainty indices for Chile", Economic Policy Uncertainty working paper.
20. Creti, A. & Gallegati, M. (2017). Policy uncertainty and investment in renewable energy. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 83, 11-30.
21. Davis, S. J. (2016), An index of global economic policy uncertainty. National Bureau of Economic Research.
22. Demirci S, N. (2018). İç ve Dış Finansman Kaynaklarının Ar-Ge Harcamalarına Etkisi: BIST’e Kote Ar-Ge Yoğun Şirketler Üzerine Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi (2006-2015). Verimlilik Dergisi, (3), 7-30.
23. Eichner, T. & Kroeger, A. (2018). Renewable energy and tax incentives: Evidence from the US. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 89, 365-385.
24. Foster, V. & Ramírez, M. (2017). Renewable energy and policy uncertainty: Evidence from Latin America. Energy Economics, 63, 185-195.
25. G7. (n.d.). G7 countries. Retrieved from https://g7.gc.ca/g7-countries/
26. Ghirelli, C., Pérez, J. J. ve Urtasun, A. (2019), "A new economic policy uncertainty index for Spain", Economics Letters, 182, 64–67.
27. Gil, M. ve Silva, D. (2018), "Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices for Colombia", Working Paper.
28. Gillingham, K., Kotchen, M. J. & Vandenbergh, M. P. (2016). Energy policy uncertainty: Why it matters and what we know. Annual Review of Environment and Re-sources, 41, 479-499.
29. Gillingham, K., Palmer, K. & Peters, G. P. (2009). Renewable energy and policy uncertainty: Evidence from Germany. Energy Policy, 37(8), 2845-2853.
30. Görg, H. & Strobl, E. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy invest-ment: Evidence from the European Union. Energy Policy, 105, 201-209.
31. Greene W., (2007), "Econometric Analysis," 6th ed., Macmillan Publishing Company Inc., New York, USA Growth", American Economic Review, 85, 1138-1151
32. Hardouvelis, G. A., Karalas, G., Karanastasis, D. ve Samartzis, P. (2018), "Economic policy uncertainty, political uncertainty and the greek economic crisis", Political Uncer-tainty and the Greek Economic Crisis (April 3, 2018).
33. International Energy Agency. (2020). Renewables 2020. Analysis and forecast to 2025. IEA.
34. International Energy Agency. (2021). Renewable Energy. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/topics/renewables
35. International Renewable Energy Agency. (2021). Renewables 2021. Global status report. IRENA.
36. Jacobs, M. & Zoi, C. (2016). Energy transitions and the G7. Energy Policy, 97, 132-139.
37. Kammen, D. M., & Baer, W. (2012). Energy policy uncertainty: An evolving landscape. Energy Policy, 46, 7-12.
38. Kantarmacı, S., & Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2020). Yenilenebilir enerji birincil üretiminin ekonomik büyüme ve işgücü üzerine etkisi: AB-28 Panel Veri Analizi. İzmir Yönetim Dergisi, 1(1), 10-28.
39. Kholodilin, K. A. & Marx, P. (2021). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renew-able energy investment: Evidence from Europe. Energy Policy, 149, 112374.
40. Kim, J. & Lee, J. (2019). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment: Evidence from South Korea. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Re-views, 110, 509-517.
41. Kroese, L., Kok, S. ve Parlevliet, J. (2015), "Beleidsonzekerheid in Nederland", Economisch Statistiche Berichten, 4715, 464–467.
42. Lee, J. & Kim, Y. (2019). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment in South Korea. Energy Policy, 126, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.05.007
43. Li, K., Guo, Z., & Chen, Q. (2021). The effect of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise total factor productivity based on financial mismatch: Evidence from Chi-na. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 68, 101613.
44. Liu, J. & Zhang, J. (2019). Government policies and renewable energy investment: Evi-dence from China. Energy Policy, 126, 309-318.
45. Lozano, J. A., Cuadrado-Ballesteros, B. & Jimenez-Jimenez, D. (2020). The effect of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment. Energy Policy, 138, 111293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111293
46. Malik, I. A., Abdullah, A. B., Alam, A., Zaman, K., Kyophilavong, P., Shahbaz, M., ... & Shams, T. (2014). Turn on the lights: Macroeconomic factors affecting renewable energy in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 38, 277- 284.
47. Pinto, J. & Alves, P. (2019). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on the renewable energy sector: Evidence from Portugal. Energy Policy, 126, 54-61.
48. Rana, P., & Lahiri, S. (2018). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment: A panel analysis of G7 countries. Renewable Energy, 115, 936-946.
49. Sathaye, J. A., Phadke, A. P., & Ravindranath, N. H. (2007). Policy uncertainty and private investment in renewable energy. Energy Policy, 35(6), 3109-3116.
50. Schmitz, A. & Holz, F. (2017). The impact of renewable energy on economic growth: Evi-dence from a panel of countries. Energy Policy, 102, 354-365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.053
51. Schumacher, K. & Smit, B. (2019). Investment in renewable energy under policy uncertainty: A real options approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 102, 402-411.
52. Shafiullah, M., Miah, M. D., Alam, M. S., & Atif, M. (2021). Does economic policy uncertainty affect renewable energy consumption?. Renewable Energy, 179, 1500-1521.
53. Tabachnick, B., Fidell, L. (2001). Using multivariate statistics, Boston: Allyn and Bacon
54. Tatoğlu, F. (2013). Panel veri ekonometrisi, İkinci Baskı, Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.
55. Ulucak, R. (2016). Doğal kaynak laneti: Avrasya Bölgesi için bir uygulama. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 85-94.
56. United Nations Environment Programme. (2021). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. UNEP.
57. Wang, Y., Jia, L. & Ma, Q. (2020). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewa-ble energy investment in China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 125, 110089.
58. Wooldridge, J. M. (2003). Econometric analysis of cross-section and panel data. MIT press, 58(2), 752.
59. Wu, J., Li, X. & Liu, X. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy investment: Evidence from panel data. Energy Policy, 147, 112365.
60. Yıldırım, U., & Muhammed, Kaya (2021). Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketiminin Makro Ekonomik Belirleyicileri. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İk-tisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(1), 267-289.
61. Zalla, R. (2017), "Economic policy uncertainty in Ireland", Atlantic Economic Journal, 45(2), 269–271.
62. Zhang, H., Zhang, Y., & Xiong, W. (2016). Economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy investment: Evidence from China. Energy Economics, 58, 48-56.
63. Zhang, Y. & Liu, Y. (2020). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment in China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 130, 110066.
64. Zhao, J. Geng, Y., Fang, D. & Cheng, J. (2020). Impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment: Evidence from China. Renewable Energy, 153, 1783-1790.
65. Zhou, Q. & Fan, Y. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy investment: Evidence from developing countries. Energy Policy, 136, 111075.
66. Zhou, Q. & Qiu, Y. (2016). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment: Evidence from Australia. Energy Policy, 94, 165-173.