Bölgesel Kalkınmada Tarımın Katkısı: Türkiye İllerinden Mekansal Bulgular

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2008–2020 döneminde Türkiye’de tarımsal faaliyetlerin bölgesel ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Türkiye’nin 81 ilinden oluşan dengeli panel veri seti kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen analiz, Mankiw, Romer ve Weil (1992) tarafından geliştirilen Genişletilmiş Solow–Swan Büyüme Modeli temelinde yürütülmüştür. Mekânsal bağımlılık ve iller arası etkileşimleri test etmek amacıyla mekânsal ekonometrik yöntemler uygulanmış, Hausman testi sonuçları en uygun modelin Mekânsal Durbin Modeli (SDM) olduğunu göstermiştir. Bulgular, tarımsal üretimin bölgesel ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu (katsayı = 0.037) ortaya koymaktadır. Doğrudan etkinin anlamlı (0.046) olduğu, ancak dolaylı (0.108) ve toplam (0.155) etkilerin pozitif fakat istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı görülmektedir. Bu so-nuçlar, tarımın yerel ekonomik performansı desteklediğini ancak bölgeler arası yayılma etkilerinin sınırlı kaldığını göstermektedir. Çalışmanın 2008–2020 dönemi ve il düzeyiyle sınırlı olması, farklı mekânsal ağırlık matrislerinin alternatif sonuçlar üretebilmesi gibi kısıtları bulunmaktadır. Politika çıkarımları, tarımsal desteğin beşerî sermaye, altyapı ve teknoloji yatırımlarıyla tamamlanması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Çalışma, mekânsal ekonometriyi Solow–Swan çerçevesiyle birleştirerek tarım–büyüme ilişkisine dair özgün kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarım
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Bölgesel İktisat
• Mekansal Panel Veri Analizi

Agriculture and Regional Development Spatial Insight from Turkish Provinces

Öz

This study investigates the impact of agricultural activities on regional economic growth in Turkey over the period 2008–2020. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset for 81 NUTS-3 provinces, the analysis is grounded in the Augmented Solow–Swan Growth Model pro-posed by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992). Spatial econometric techniques are employed to assess spatial dependence and interregional linkages. Hausman test outcomes identify the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) as the most appropriate specification. The empirical find-ings reveal that agricultural production exerts a positive and statistically significant influ-ence on regional economic growth (coefficient = 0.037). While the direct effect is signifi-cant (0.046), both the indirect (0.108) and total (0.155) effects are positive yet statistically insignificant, indicating limited spatial spillovers across provinces. These results suggest that agriculture supports local economic performance but does not induce strong cross-regional diffusion effects. The study is limited to provincial-level data for 2008–2020, and results may vary with alternative spatial weight matrices or structural changes beyond this period. Policy implications highlight the need to complement agricultural support with improve-ments in human capital, infrastructure, and technology to enhance regional convergence. The study contributes to the literature by integrating spatial econometrics with the Solow–Swan framework and offering novel evidence on agriculture–growth dynamics in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agriculture
• Economic Growth
• Bölgesel İktisat
• Mekansal Panel Veri Analizi

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