Customer Churn Determinants in International Turkish Banking Operations: Statistical Analysis and Strategic Implications from a Multi-Market Case Study

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3, 336 - 361, 11.10.2025

Yavuz Selim Balcıoğlu , Ejder Güven , Ümit Bayraktar

https://doi.org/10.54733/smar.1711135

Öz

Customer retention presents critical challenges for Turkish banking institutions operating in international markets, where cultural differences, regulatory variations, and competitive dynamics create complex customer relationship management requirements. This study examines customer churn determinants through statistical analysis of 10,000 customer records from a Turkish bank's European operations across Germany, France, and Spain. Using comprehensive segmentation analysis and correlation techniques, the research identifies four primary churn drivers: complaint resolution failures, age-related service gaps, geographic market disparities, and account inactivity patterns. The overall churn rate stands at 20.38%, with complaint status being the strongest predictor (r = 0.996). Notably, 99.51% of customers who file complaints eventually leave their bank. Age is the second most significant factor (r = 0.285), with churn increasing from 7.52% among customers aged 18-30 to 44.65% for those over 50. Geographic trends show German customers have a much higher churn rate (32.44%) than French (16.17%) and Spanish (16.67%) clients. Inactivity also signals risk, as inactive users are 88% more likely to leave. These findings challenge traditional retention strategies focused mainly on transactional benefits. Instead, they highlight urgent gaps in complaint resolution, age-specific services, and culturally tailored approaches. To reduce churn, Turkish banks must shift from reactive measures to proactive customer relationship management, including effective complaint handling, personalized services, and early warning systems. This approach offers a clear roadmap for improving loyalty and competitive edge in Turkey’s dynamic banking environment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

customer retention , banking sector , churn prediction , complaint management , digital transformation

Uluslararası Türk Bankacılık Faaliyetlerinde Müşteri Kaybının Belirleyicileri: Çoklu Pazar Vaka Çalışmasından İstatistiksel Analiz ve Stratejik Sonuçlar

Öz

Müşteri sadakati, kültürel farklılıklar, düzenleyici farklılıklar ve rekabet dinamiklerinin karmaşık müşteri ilişkileri yönetimi gereklilikleri yarattığı uluslararası pazarlarda faaliyet gösteren Türk bankacılık kurumları için kritik zorluklar oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışma, bir Türk bankasının Almanya, Fransa ve İspanya'daki Avrupa operasyonlarından elde edilen 10.000 müşteri kaydının istatistiksel analizi yoluyla müşteri kayıp belirleyicilerini incelemektedir. Kapsamlı segmentasyon analizi ve korelasyon teknikleri kullanılarak yapılan araştırma, dört ana müşteri kaybı faktörü belirlemektedir: şikayetlerin çözülememesi, yaşa bağlı hizmet eksiklikleri, coğrafi pazar farklılıkları ve hesap hareketliliğinin azalması. Genel müşteri kaybı oranı %20,38 olup, şikâyet durumu en güçlü belirleyici faktördür (r = 0,996). Özellikle, şikâyet eden müşterilerin %99,51'i sonunda bankalarını terk etmektedir. Yaş, ikinci en önemli faktördür (r = 0,285) ve müşteri kaybı oranı 18-30 yaş arası müşterilerde %7,52 iken, 50 yaş üstü müşterilerde %44,65'e çıkmaktadır. Coğrafi eğilimler, Alman müşterilerin müşteri kaybı oranının (32,44%) Fransız (16,17%) ve İspanyol (16,67%) müşterilere göre çok daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Etkin olmayan kullanıcılar da ayrılma olasılığı %88 daha yüksek olduğundan, etkin olmama durumu da risk işareti oluşturmaktadır. Bu bulgular, esas olarak işlem avantajlarına odaklanan geleneksel müşteri tutma stratejilerini sorgulamaktadır. Bunun yerine, şikayetlerin çözülmesi, yaşa özel hizmetler ve kültürel açıdan uyarlanmış yaklaşımlar konusunda acil eksiklikleri vurgulamaktadır. Müşteri kaybını azaltmak için Türk bankaları, etkili şikâyet yönetimi, kişiselleştirilmiş hizmetler ve erken uyarı sistemleri dahil olmak üzere, reaktif önlemlerden proaktif müşteri ilişkileri yönetimine geçmelidir. Bu yaklaşım, Türkiye'nin dinamik bankacılık ortamında sadakati ve rekabet gücünü artırmak için net bir yol haritası sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

müşteri tutundurma , bankacılık sektörü , müşteri kaybı tahmini , şikâyet yönetimi , dijital dönüşüm

Kaynakça

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