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Analysis of the Validity of Financial Failure Predicting Models: The Case of Thomas Cook

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 3, 394 - 406, 30.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.24010/soid.719656

Öz

The purpose of this study is to analyze the validity of financial failure prediction models, which are the most widely accepted in finance theory, on the Thomas Cook company, who declared that it was bankrupt on September 23, 2019. For this purpose, the financial failure risk probabilities of the company between 2009-2018 years were calculated using Altman Z Score, Springate, Fulmer, Canada Score and Ohlson O-Score models by using statements of financial position, income statements and cash flow statements. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that Thomas Cook company carries the risk of financial failure in the analysis period. Therefore, it was determined that all financial failure prediction models used in the analysis predicted the company's bankruptcy as 100% in the years before 2019.

Kaynakça

  • Aksoy, A. ve Yalçıner, K. (2013), İşletme Sermayesi Yönetimi, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Aktaş, R. (1991), Endüstri İşletmeleri İçin Mali Başarısızlık Tahmini: Çok Boyutlu Model Uygulaması, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi, Ankara.
  • Altman, E. I. (1968), “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, Journal of Finance, 23 (4), ss. 589-609.
  • Anadolu Ajansı (2019), “İngiliz Tur Operatörü Thomas Cook İflas Etti”, https://www. aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/ingiliz-tur-operatoru-thomas-cook-iflas-etti/1591138 (02.04.2020).
  • Aydın, N., Başar, M. ve Coşkun, M. (2014), Finansal Yönetim, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Bankruptcy Canada, www.bankruptcycanada.com/insolart1.htm, (15.03.2017).
  • BBC (2019), “Thomas Cook”, www.bbc.com (25.03.2020).
  • Beaver, W. H. (1966), “Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research, 4, ss. 71-111.
  • Blum, M. (1974), “Failing Company Discriminant Analysis”, Journal of Accounting Research. 12 (1), ss. 1-25.
  • Borodin, A., Pyatanova, V. ve Yashin, A. (2019), “Bankruptcy Predictions for Air Carriers: Global Market”, HSE Economic Journal, 23 (3), ss. 418-443.
  • Ceylan, A. (2001), İşletmelerde Finansal Yönetim, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Cho, M. H. (1994). Predicting Business Failure in the Hospitality Industry: An Application of Logit Model, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Virginia Tech, United States.
  • Deakin, E. B. (1972), “A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research, 1(10), ss. 167-179.
  • Diakomihalis, M. (2012), “The Accuracy of Altmans’s Models in Predicting Hotel Bankruptcy”, International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 2 (2), ss. 96-113.
  • Economist (2019), “Thomas Cook”,www.economist.com (27.03.2020).
  • Edmister, R. O. (1972), “An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction”, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 7 (2), ss.1477-1493.
  • Elam, R. (1975), “The Effect of Lease Data on the Predictive Ability of Financial Ratios”, The Accounting Review, 50 (1), ss. 25-43.
  • Euler Hermes (2020), “Alacak Sigortası Şirketi Euler Hermes Küresel İflas Raporu”, www.eulerhermes.com/tr (25.03.2020).
  • Euronews, (2019), “Turizm Sektöründe Deprem. Seyahat Firması Thomas Cook İflas Etti”, https://tr.euronews.com/2019/09/23/turizm-sektorunde-deprem-seyahat-firmasi-thomas-cook-iflas-etti (03.04. 2020).
  • Fulmer, J. G. (1984), “A Bankruptcy Classification Model for Small Firms”, The Journal Of Commercial Bank Lending, 66 (11), ss. 25-37.
  • Gamez, M. A., Ruiz, A. J. ve Gil, A. (2016), “Applying a Probabilistic Neural Network to Hotel Bankruptcy Prediction”, Tourism & Management Studies, 12 (1), ss. 40-52.
  • Gu, Z. (2002), “Analyzing Bankruptcy in the Restaurant Industry: A Multiple Discriminant Model”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 21 (1), ss. 25-42.
  • Gu, Z. ve Goa, L. (2000), “A Multivariate Model for Predicting Business Failures of Hospitality Firms”, Tourism and Hospitality Research: The Surrey Quarterly Review, 2 (1), ss. 37-50.
  • Habertürk, (2019), “İlklerin Şirketi Thomas Cook Böyle İflas Etti”, https://www. haberturk.com/ilklerin-sirketi-thomas-cook-boyle-iflas-etti-2524716-ekonomi (01.04. 2020).
  • Hedija, V. (2017), “Financial Health of Travel Agencies and Tour Operators in the Czech Republic: Evidence From Bankruptcy Models”, In 4th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Conference on Social Sciences & Arts SGEM 2017: Modern Science (Conference proceedings Book 2, Vol. 4). Sofia: STEF92 Technology. 2017. ss. 325-330.
  • Hedija, V. (2019), “Are Bankruptcy Models A Good Predictor of Firm Financial Distress of Travel Agents in The Czech Republic?”, Economy & Business Journal, 13 (1), ss. 87-93.
  • Huo, Y. H. (2006), “Bankruptcy Situation Model in Small Business: The Case of Restaurant Firms”, Hospitality Review, 24 (2), ss. 49-58.
  • Jawabreh, O. A., Rawashdeh, F. ve Senjelawi, O. (2017), “Using Altman's Z-Score Model to Predict the Financial Failure of Hospitality Companies - Case of Jordan”, International Journal of Information, Business and Management, 9 (2), ss. 141-157.
  • Karaca, S. ve Özen, E. (2017), “Financial Failure Estimation of Companies in BIST Tourism Index by Altman Model and its Effect on Market Prices”, Broad Research in Accounting, Negotiation, and Distribution, 8 (2), ss. 11-23.
  • Karadeniz, E. ve Öcek, C. (2019), “Borsa İstanbul Konaklama İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Riskinin Beaver Modeli Kullanılarak Analizi”, Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 5 (2), ss. 99-111.
  • Karadeniz, E., ve Öcek, C. (2018), “Konaklama İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Riskinin Ölçümü: Türkiye ve Avrupa Karşılaştırması”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 55 (645), ss. 9-59.
  • Kim, H. ve Gu, Z. (2006), “Predicting Restaurant Bankruptcy: A Logit Model in Comparison with a Discriminant Model”, Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism, 30 (4), ss. 474-493.
  • Kim, S. Y. (2008), “Prediction of Hotel Bankruptcy Using Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, Logistic Regression, and Multivariate Discriminant Analysis”, The Service Industries Journal, 31 (3), ss. 441-468.
  • Kiyak, D. ve Labanauskaite, D. (2012), “Assessment of the Practical Application of Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Models”, Economics and Management, 17 (3), ss. 895-905.
  • Korol, T. ve Spyridou, A. (2020), “Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting”, Frontiers in Psychology, 10, ss. 3048.
  • Kumar, R. G. ve Kumar, K. (2012), “A Comparison of Bankruptcy Models”, International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services & Management Research, 1(4), ss. 76-86.
  • Legault, J.C.A. ve Score, A. (1987), “CA-Score, A Warning System For Small Business Failures”, Bilanas, ss. 29-31.
  • Mammadli, A. ve Helhel, Y. (2017), “Fortune 100 Listesinde Yer Alan Turizm Şirketleri İçin Altman Z Skor Modeli Kullanılarak İflas Tahmini”, 1. Uluslararası Turizmin Geleceği Kongresi: İnovasyon, Girişimcilik ve Sürdürebilirlik Kongresi (Futourism 2017), ME.Ü. Turizm Fakültesi Yayınları, 1, ss. 1219-1226.
  • Ohlson, J. A. (1980), “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research, 18 (1), ss. 109-131.
  • Özdemir, F. S. (2011), Finansal Raporlama Sistemlerinin Bilginin İhtiyaca Uygunluğu Açısından Değerlendirilmesi: İMKB Şirketlerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Tahminleri Yönüyle Bir Uygulama, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Özdemir, F. S. (2014), “Halka Açık ve Halka Açık Olmayan İşletmeler Yönüyle Tekdüzen Muhasebe Sistemi ve Altman Z Skor Modellerinin Uygulanabilirliği”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 14, ss. 147-161.
  • Park, S. S. ve Hancer, M. (2012), “A Comparative Study of Logit and Artificial Neural Networks in Predicting Bankruptcy in the Hospitality Industry”, Tourism Economics, 18 (2), ss. 311-338.
  • Sevil, G., Başar, M. ve Coşkun, M. (2013), Finansal Yönetim – II. Ankara: Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Sevim, Ü. U. ve Paslı, Ü. M. M. (2018), “Konaklama İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlığa Neden Olan Faktörlerin Dematel Yöntemiyle Analizi: Doğu Karadeniz Örneği”, Mali Çözüm Dergisi, 28, ss.79-94.
  • Springate, G. L. V. (1978), “Predicting The Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm”, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Simon Eraser University.
  • Taffler, R. J. (1983), ‘The Assessment of Company Solvency and Performance Using A Statistical Model”, Accounting and Business Research, 15 (52), ss.295–307.
  • Terzi, Y. (2019), “Anket, Güvenilirlik, Geçerlilik Analizi”, https://personel.omu.edu. tr/docs/ders_dokumanlari/1030_32625_1500.pdf (19.02.2020).
  • Vickers, F. (2006), Recession Proofing Your Business, Lulu.com. (02.03.2020).

Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modellerinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Thomas Cook Örneği

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 3, 394 - 406, 30.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.24010/soid.719656

Öz

Bu araştırmanın amacı, finans teorisinde en fazla kabul gören finansal başarısızlık tahmin modellerinin geçerliliğini, 23 Eylül 2019 tarihinde iflas ettiğini açıklayan Thomas Cook şirketi üzerinde analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla, şirketin 2009-2018 yılları arasındaki finansal durum tabloları, ayrıntılı gelir tabloları ve nakit akış tabloları kullanılarak finansal başarısızlık risk olasılıkları Altman Z Skor, Springate, Fulmer, Kanada Skor ve Ohlson O-Skor modellerine göre hesaplanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda Thomas Cook şirketinin bütün tahmin modellerine göre analiz döneminde finansal başarısızlık riski taşıdığı belirlenmiştir. Dolayısıyla analizde kullanılan bütün finansal başarısızlık tahmin modellerinin şirketin iflasını 2019 yılından önceki yıllarda %100 olarak doğru tahmin ettiği saptanmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Aksoy, A. ve Yalçıner, K. (2013), İşletme Sermayesi Yönetimi, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Aktaş, R. (1991), Endüstri İşletmeleri İçin Mali Başarısızlık Tahmini: Çok Boyutlu Model Uygulaması, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi, Ankara.
  • Altman, E. I. (1968), “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, Journal of Finance, 23 (4), ss. 589-609.
  • Anadolu Ajansı (2019), “İngiliz Tur Operatörü Thomas Cook İflas Etti”, https://www. aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/ingiliz-tur-operatoru-thomas-cook-iflas-etti/1591138 (02.04.2020).
  • Aydın, N., Başar, M. ve Coşkun, M. (2014), Finansal Yönetim, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Bankruptcy Canada, www.bankruptcycanada.com/insolart1.htm, (15.03.2017).
  • BBC (2019), “Thomas Cook”, www.bbc.com (25.03.2020).
  • Beaver, W. H. (1966), “Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research, 4, ss. 71-111.
  • Blum, M. (1974), “Failing Company Discriminant Analysis”, Journal of Accounting Research. 12 (1), ss. 1-25.
  • Borodin, A., Pyatanova, V. ve Yashin, A. (2019), “Bankruptcy Predictions for Air Carriers: Global Market”, HSE Economic Journal, 23 (3), ss. 418-443.
  • Ceylan, A. (2001), İşletmelerde Finansal Yönetim, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Cho, M. H. (1994). Predicting Business Failure in the Hospitality Industry: An Application of Logit Model, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Virginia Tech, United States.
  • Deakin, E. B. (1972), “A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research, 1(10), ss. 167-179.
  • Diakomihalis, M. (2012), “The Accuracy of Altmans’s Models in Predicting Hotel Bankruptcy”, International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 2 (2), ss. 96-113.
  • Economist (2019), “Thomas Cook”,www.economist.com (27.03.2020).
  • Edmister, R. O. (1972), “An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction”, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 7 (2), ss.1477-1493.
  • Elam, R. (1975), “The Effect of Lease Data on the Predictive Ability of Financial Ratios”, The Accounting Review, 50 (1), ss. 25-43.
  • Euler Hermes (2020), “Alacak Sigortası Şirketi Euler Hermes Küresel İflas Raporu”, www.eulerhermes.com/tr (25.03.2020).
  • Euronews, (2019), “Turizm Sektöründe Deprem. Seyahat Firması Thomas Cook İflas Etti”, https://tr.euronews.com/2019/09/23/turizm-sektorunde-deprem-seyahat-firmasi-thomas-cook-iflas-etti (03.04. 2020).
  • Fulmer, J. G. (1984), “A Bankruptcy Classification Model for Small Firms”, The Journal Of Commercial Bank Lending, 66 (11), ss. 25-37.
  • Gamez, M. A., Ruiz, A. J. ve Gil, A. (2016), “Applying a Probabilistic Neural Network to Hotel Bankruptcy Prediction”, Tourism & Management Studies, 12 (1), ss. 40-52.
  • Gu, Z. (2002), “Analyzing Bankruptcy in the Restaurant Industry: A Multiple Discriminant Model”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 21 (1), ss. 25-42.
  • Gu, Z. ve Goa, L. (2000), “A Multivariate Model for Predicting Business Failures of Hospitality Firms”, Tourism and Hospitality Research: The Surrey Quarterly Review, 2 (1), ss. 37-50.
  • Habertürk, (2019), “İlklerin Şirketi Thomas Cook Böyle İflas Etti”, https://www. haberturk.com/ilklerin-sirketi-thomas-cook-boyle-iflas-etti-2524716-ekonomi (01.04. 2020).
  • Hedija, V. (2017), “Financial Health of Travel Agencies and Tour Operators in the Czech Republic: Evidence From Bankruptcy Models”, In 4th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Conference on Social Sciences & Arts SGEM 2017: Modern Science (Conference proceedings Book 2, Vol. 4). Sofia: STEF92 Technology. 2017. ss. 325-330.
  • Hedija, V. (2019), “Are Bankruptcy Models A Good Predictor of Firm Financial Distress of Travel Agents in The Czech Republic?”, Economy & Business Journal, 13 (1), ss. 87-93.
  • Huo, Y. H. (2006), “Bankruptcy Situation Model in Small Business: The Case of Restaurant Firms”, Hospitality Review, 24 (2), ss. 49-58.
  • Jawabreh, O. A., Rawashdeh, F. ve Senjelawi, O. (2017), “Using Altman's Z-Score Model to Predict the Financial Failure of Hospitality Companies - Case of Jordan”, International Journal of Information, Business and Management, 9 (2), ss. 141-157.
  • Karaca, S. ve Özen, E. (2017), “Financial Failure Estimation of Companies in BIST Tourism Index by Altman Model and its Effect on Market Prices”, Broad Research in Accounting, Negotiation, and Distribution, 8 (2), ss. 11-23.
  • Karadeniz, E. ve Öcek, C. (2019), “Borsa İstanbul Konaklama İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Riskinin Beaver Modeli Kullanılarak Analizi”, Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 5 (2), ss. 99-111.
  • Karadeniz, E., ve Öcek, C. (2018), “Konaklama İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Riskinin Ölçümü: Türkiye ve Avrupa Karşılaştırması”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 55 (645), ss. 9-59.
  • Kim, H. ve Gu, Z. (2006), “Predicting Restaurant Bankruptcy: A Logit Model in Comparison with a Discriminant Model”, Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism, 30 (4), ss. 474-493.
  • Kim, S. Y. (2008), “Prediction of Hotel Bankruptcy Using Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, Logistic Regression, and Multivariate Discriminant Analysis”, The Service Industries Journal, 31 (3), ss. 441-468.
  • Kiyak, D. ve Labanauskaite, D. (2012), “Assessment of the Practical Application of Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Models”, Economics and Management, 17 (3), ss. 895-905.
  • Korol, T. ve Spyridou, A. (2020), “Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting”, Frontiers in Psychology, 10, ss. 3048.
  • Kumar, R. G. ve Kumar, K. (2012), “A Comparison of Bankruptcy Models”, International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services & Management Research, 1(4), ss. 76-86.
  • Legault, J.C.A. ve Score, A. (1987), “CA-Score, A Warning System For Small Business Failures”, Bilanas, ss. 29-31.
  • Mammadli, A. ve Helhel, Y. (2017), “Fortune 100 Listesinde Yer Alan Turizm Şirketleri İçin Altman Z Skor Modeli Kullanılarak İflas Tahmini”, 1. Uluslararası Turizmin Geleceği Kongresi: İnovasyon, Girişimcilik ve Sürdürebilirlik Kongresi (Futourism 2017), ME.Ü. Turizm Fakültesi Yayınları, 1, ss. 1219-1226.
  • Ohlson, J. A. (1980), “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research, 18 (1), ss. 109-131.
  • Özdemir, F. S. (2011), Finansal Raporlama Sistemlerinin Bilginin İhtiyaca Uygunluğu Açısından Değerlendirilmesi: İMKB Şirketlerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Tahminleri Yönüyle Bir Uygulama, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Özdemir, F. S. (2014), “Halka Açık ve Halka Açık Olmayan İşletmeler Yönüyle Tekdüzen Muhasebe Sistemi ve Altman Z Skor Modellerinin Uygulanabilirliği”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 14, ss. 147-161.
  • Park, S. S. ve Hancer, M. (2012), “A Comparative Study of Logit and Artificial Neural Networks in Predicting Bankruptcy in the Hospitality Industry”, Tourism Economics, 18 (2), ss. 311-338.
  • Sevil, G., Başar, M. ve Coşkun, M. (2013), Finansal Yönetim – II. Ankara: Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Sevim, Ü. U. ve Paslı, Ü. M. M. (2018), “Konaklama İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlığa Neden Olan Faktörlerin Dematel Yöntemiyle Analizi: Doğu Karadeniz Örneği”, Mali Çözüm Dergisi, 28, ss.79-94.
  • Springate, G. L. V. (1978), “Predicting The Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm”, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Simon Eraser University.
  • Taffler, R. J. (1983), ‘The Assessment of Company Solvency and Performance Using A Statistical Model”, Accounting and Business Research, 15 (52), ss.295–307.
  • Terzi, Y. (2019), “Anket, Güvenilirlik, Geçerlilik Analizi”, https://personel.omu.edu. tr/docs/ders_dokumanlari/1030_32625_1500.pdf (19.02.2020).
  • Vickers, F. (2006), Recession Proofing Your Business, Lulu.com. (02.03.2020).
Toplam 48 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Turizm (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Erdinç Karadeniz 0000-0003-2658-8490

Cemile Öcek 0000-0001-6376-3820

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Ekim 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Karadeniz, E., & Öcek, C. (2020). Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modellerinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Thomas Cook Örneği. Seyahat Ve Otel İşletmeciliği Dergisi, 17(3), 394-406. https://doi.org/10.24010/soid.719656

Seyahat ve Otel İşletmeciliği (Journal of Travel and Hotel Business) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0).
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