Ticaret Anlaşmaları ve Gümrük Birlikleri Uluslararası Ticarette Kümeleşmeye Neden Oluyor Mu?

Öz

Bu makale, ticaret kalıpları üzerindeki ex-post bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının ve gümrük birliklerinin rolünü değerlendirmek için bir çekim modeli kullanmaktadır. Bu makalenin geleneksel çekim modeline birincil katkısı, ticaret anlaşmalarının ikili ticaret hacimlerini önemli ölçüde etkileyip etkilemediğini belirlemektir. İkincil katkı, ticaret anlaşmaları ve ekonomik birlikler arasındaki içi ve dış ticaret gruplaşmalarını ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu amaçla geleneksel çekim modeline üç kukla değişken eklendi. Sonuçlar, ticaret ortakları açısından (a) mesafeye bağlı olarak ve (b) bir ticaret anlaşmasına ve/veya ekonomik birliğe üye olmaya bağlı olarak hafif bir kümelenme göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticaret
• Gümrük Birliği
• Çekim Modeli

Do Trade Agreements and Economic Unions Create Clusters in Global International Trade?

Öz

This paper employs a gravity model to assess the role of ex-post regional trade agreements and customs unions on trade patterns. The primary contribution of this paper to the conventional gravity modal is to embed trade agreements and determine whether they have significantly affected bilateral trade. The secondary contribution is to reveal intra and inter-union/agreement trade patterns among trade agreements and economic unions. Three dummy variables were also introduced to the conventional gravity model. Results showed a slight clustering in trade partners (a) depending on the distance and (b) depending on being a member of a trade agreement and/or economic union.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade
• Customs Union
• Gravity Model

Kaynakça

1. Anderson, J.E. & E. Van Wincoop (2003), “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle”, American Economic Review, 93(1), 170-192.
2. Anderson, J.E. (1979), “A theoretical foundation for gravity model”, American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.
3. Bergstrand, J.H. (1985), “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474-481.
4. Berthelon, M. & C. Freund (2008), “On the conservation of distance in international trade”, Journal of International Economics, 75(2), 310-320.
5. Bougheas, S. et al. (1999), “Infrastructure, transport costs and trade”, Journal of International Economics, 47(1), 169-189.
6. Brei, M. & V. Goetz (2018), “The distance effect in banking and trade”, Journal of International Money and Trade, 81, 116-137.
7. Breuss, F. & P. Egger (99), “How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?”, Empirica, 26(2), 81-94.
8. Brun, J.-F. et al. (2005), “Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model”, World Bank Economic Review, 19(1), 99-119.

9. Cheng, I.-H. & H.J. Wall (2005), “Controlling for Heterogeneity in Gravity Models of Trade and Integration”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 87(1), 49-63.
10. Disdier, A.C. & K. Head (2008), “The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(1), 37-48.
11. Egger, P. (2000), “A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation”, Economics Letters, 66(1), 25-31.
12. Eichengreen, B. & D. Irwin (1998), “The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows”, in: J. Frankel (ed.), The Regionalization of the World Economy (33-62), National Bureau of Economic Research.
13. Endoh, M. (1999), “The transition of postwar Asia-Pacific trade relations”, Journal of Asian Economics, 10(4), 571-589.
14. Felbelmayr, J.G. & W. Kohler (2006), “Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade”, Review of World Economics, 142(4), 642-674.
15. Helpman, E. & P.R. Krugman (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy, MIT Press.
16. Helpman, E. (1987), “Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1(1), 62-81.
17. Leamer, E.E. & C.J. Medberry (1993), “U.S. Manufacturing and an Emerging Mexico”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(1), 51-89.
18. Limao, N. & A.J. Venables (2001), “Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, transport costs, and trade”, The World Bank Economic Review, 15(3), 451-479.
19. Lin, F. & N.C. Sim (2012), “Death of distance and the distance puzzle”, Economics Letters, 116(2), 225-228.
20. Matyas, L. (1997), “Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model”, The World Economy, 20(3), 363-368.
21. McCallum, J. (1995), “National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns”, The American Economic Review, 85(3), 615-623.
22. Nitsch, V. (2000), “National Borders and International Trade: Evidence from the European Union”, The Canadian Journal of Economics, 33(4), 1091-1105.
23. Pöyhönen, P. (1963), “A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries”, World Economic Archive, 90, 93-100.
24. Soloaga, I. & A.L. Wintersb (2001), “Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(1), 1-29.
25. Tinbergen, J. (1962), “Shaping the World Economy: An Analysis of World Trade Flows”, New York Twentieth Century Fund, 5(1), 27-30.
26. Wei, S.J. (1996), “Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?”, NBER Working Paper No. 5531.