Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi ve Finansal Gelişme: Kurumların Rolü

Yıl 2023, , 195 - 209, 31.01.2023

Abdulkadir Bulut

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.10

Öz

Bu çalışma 67 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 2002-2017 verilerini kullanarak finansal gelişme ve kurumsal kalitenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki interaktif etkisini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada değişen varyans ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan Driscoll ve Kraay Standart Hatalar ile Sabit Etkiler tahmin yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Bulgular, finansal gelişme ve kurumların, kayıt dışı ekonomiyi azaltmada ikame işlevi gördüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Kurumsal kalitenin en düşük olduğu ülkelerde finansal gelişmenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde en fazla etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan, finansal sektörün daha az gelişmiş olduğu ülkelerde güçlü kurumlar kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde daha etkili olmaktadır. Son olarak, çalışma kayıt dışı ekonomiyle mücadele konusunda birkaç temel politika önerisi sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi, Finansal Gelişme, Kurumlar

Informal Economy and Financial Development: The Role of Institutions

Öz

This paper assesses the interactive impact of financial development and institutional quality indicators on the informal economy using data from 67 developing countries from 2002-2017. We employ the fixed-effect model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors that are heteroscedasticity consistent and robust to the general form of cross-sectional and temporal dependence. Findings reveal that financial development and institutions are substitutes for reducing the informal economy. Financial development decreases the size of the informal economy only in the absence of efficient institutions and vice versa. Finally, the study provides several essential policy suggestions for combatting the informal economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Informal Economy, Financial Development, Institutions

Kaynakça

• Abdih, M.Y. & L. Medina (2013), Measuring the informal economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia, International Monetary Fund.
• Antunes, A.R. & T.V.D.V. Cavalcanti (2007), “Start-up costs, limited enforcement, and the hidden economy”, European Economic Review, 51(1), 203-224.
• Bayar, Y. & L. Aytemiz (2017), “Financial development and shadow economy in Turkey”, in: S. Koç et al. (eds.), Unregistered Employment (170-175), IJOPEC Publication.
• Beck, T. & M. Hoseini (2014), Informality and access to finance: evidence from India.
• Becker, G.S. (1968), “Crime and punishment: An economic approach”, in: N.G. Fielding et al. (eds.), The Economic Dimensions of Crime (13-68), Palgrave Macmillan, London.
• Berdiev, A.N. & J.W. Saunoris (2016), “Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis”, Economic Modelling, 57, 197-207.
• Blackburn, K. et al. (2012), “Tax evasion, the underground economy and financial development”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 83(2), 243-253.
• Blanco, L. & N. Dutta (2021), “Do financial development and political institutions act as substitutes or complements?”, Oxford Development Studies, 49(2), 184-199.
• Bose, N. et al. (2012), “The impact of banking development on the size of shadow economies”, Journal of Economic Studies, 39(6), 620-638.
• Bovi, M. & R. Dell’Anno (2010), “The changing nature of the OECD shadow economy”, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 20(1), 19-48.
• Canh, P.N. et al. (2021), “What are the drivers of shadow economy? A further evidence of economic integration and institutional quality”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(1), 47-67.
• Capasso, S. & T. Jappelli (2013), “Financial development and the underground economy”, Journal of Development Economics, 101, 167-178.
• Cepparulo, A. et al. (2017), “Financial development, institutions, and poverty alleviation: an empirical analysis”, Applied Economics, 49(36), 3611-3622.
• Compton, R.A. & D.C. Giedeman (2011), “Panel evidence on finance, institutions and economic growth”, Applied Economics, 43(25), 3523-3547.
• Dabla-Norris, E. et al. (2008), “What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality”, Journal of Development Economics, 85(1-2), 1-27.
• Dell’Anno, R. & A.A. Davidescu (2018), “Estimating Shadow Economy in Tanzania: An Analysis with the MIMIC Approach”, Journal of Economic Studies, 45(1), 100-113.
• Dell’Anno, R. (2010), “Institutions and human development in the Latin American informal economy”, Constitutional Political Economy, 21(3), 207-230.
• Dreher, A. & F. Schneider (2010), “Corruption and the shadow economy: an empirical analysis”, Public Choice, 144(1), 215-238.
• Dreher, A. et al. (2009), “How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?”, International Tax and Public Finance, 16(6), 773-796.
• Elgin, C. & O. Oztunali (2014), “Institutions, informal economy, and economic development”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(4), 145-162.
• Esaku, S. (2021), “The long-and short-run relationship between the shadow economy and trade openness in Uganda”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1930886.
• Friedman, E. et al. (2000), “Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 76(3), 459-493.
• Goel, R.K. & M.A. Nelson (2016), “Shining a light on the shadows: Identifying robust determinants of the shadow economy”, Economic Modelling, 58, 351-364.
• Guha-Khasnobis, B. et al. (2006), “Beyond formality and informality”, Linking the Formal and Informal Economy: Concepts and Policies, 4, 75-92.
• Hassan, M. & F. Schneider (2016), “Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC Model and A Currency Demand Approach”, Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 3(2), 309-339.
• Hoechle, D. (2007), “Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence”, The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281-312.
• Johnson, S. et al. (1998), “Regulatory discretion and the unofficial economy”, The American Economic Review, 88(2), 387-392.
• Medina, L. & F. Schneider (2019), “Shedding light on the shadow economy: A global database and the interaction with the official one”, Working Paper, CESifo, 7981.
• North, D.C. (1991), “Institutions”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 97-112.
• Schneider, F. (2005), “Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?”, European Journal of Political Economy, 21(3), 598-642.
• Schneider, F. (2011), “The shadow economy and shadow economy labor force: What do we (not) know?”, IZA Discussion Paper, No. 5769.
• Schneider, F. & D.H. Enste (2000), “Shadow economies: Size, causes, and consequences”, Journal of Economic Literature, 38(1), 77-114.
• Straub, S. (2005), “Informal sector: the credit market channel”, Journal of Development Economics, 78(2), 299-321.
• Teobaldelli, D. (2011), “Federalism and the shadow economy”, Public Choice, 146(3-4), 269-289.
• Torgler, B. & F. Schneider (2009), “The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 30(2), 228-245.
• Torgler, B. et al. (2011), “Shadow economy, voice and accountability, and corruption”, in: F. Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Wu, D.F. & F. Schneider (2019), “Nonlinearity between the shadow economy and level of development”, IMF Working Paper, WP/19/48.
• Zaman, G. & Z. Goschin (2015), “Shadow economy and economic growth in Romania, Cons and pros.”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 22, 80-87.