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The Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) in Input-Output Analysis: The Impact Assessment of Sectoral Lockdowns for the Western Mediterranean Region (TR61)

Yıl 2023, , 241 - 277, 28.04.2023

Zafer Barış Gül , Şebnem Arık , Mehmet Kula , Selim Çağatay , Şükrü Erdem

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12

Öz

This study analyses the economic effects of the sectoral lockdowns on the Western Mediterranean Region (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) in Türkiye by employing the Hypothetical Extraction Method-HEM. The analyses used the year-2017 regional input-output table established for TR61. In addition, the study interprets the output and household income multipliers with the forward and backward linkage coefficients estimated by both the conventional approach and the HEM to find the impacts of lock-down and measures to recover. The study’s findings point out that the sectoral lockdown created the most significant contraction in the region in tourism, transportation and logistics, agriculture, food industry and construction sectors. Moreover, the fishing sector is the sector most negatively affected by the lockdown of the tourism sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Input-Output Analysis Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) Lockdown Regional Effects

Kaynakça

  • Ali, Y. (2015), “Measuring CO2 Emission Linkages with the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM)”, Ecological Indicators, 54, 171-183.
  • Ali, Y. et al. (2019), “A Comparative Input-Output Analysis of the Construction Sector in Three Developing Economies of South Asia”, Construction Management and Economics, 37(11), 643-658.
  • Altan, Ş. & A. Ediz (2009), “Girdi Katsayılarının Güncellenmesi için RAS ve Hedef Programlama Modellerinin Kullanımı”, Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(3), 79-92.
  • Bacharach, M. (1970), Bioproportional Matrices and Input-Output Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • BAKKA Batı Karadeniz Kalkınma Ajansı (2014), “TR81 Düzey 2 Bölgesinin Sektörel Yapı ve Rekabet Gücünün Girdi-Çıktı Modeli ile Analizi”, Proje Raporu, Proje No: TR81, DFD/013/004, Zonguldak.
  • Chenery, H.B. & T. Watanabe (1958), “International Comparisons of the Structure of Production”, Econometrica, 26(4), 487-521.
  • Dietzenbacher, E. et al. (2019), “Hypothetical Extractions from a Global Perspective”, Economic Systems Research, 31(4), 505-519.
  • Giammetti, R. et al. (2020), “The Italian value chain in the pandemic: the input-output impact of Covid-19 lockdown”, Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 47(3), 483-497.
  • Guerra, A.I. & F. Sancho (2010), “Measuring Energy Linkages with the Hypothetical Extraction Method: An application to Spain”, Energy Economics, 32, 831-837.
  • Gül, Z.B. et al. (2021), “Covid-19 Pandemisinin Sektörel Kapanma Etkileri: Varsayımsal Çıkarma (Hypothetical Extraction) Yöntemiyle Analiz”, İktisat ve Toplum, 124, 29-36.
  • Haddad, E.A. et al. (2020), “The impact of COVID-19 in Morocco: Macroeconomic, Sectoral and Regional Effects”, Policy Center for he New South: Africa Portal Research Paper, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
  • Haddad, E.A. et al. (2021), “Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input-output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19”, Spatial Economic Analysis, 16(3), 252-270.
  • Heimler, A. (1991), “Linkages and Vertical Integration in the Chinese Economy”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 261-267.
  • Hirschman, A.O. (1958), The Strategy of Economic Development, New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • İZKA İzmir Kalkınma Ajansı (2012), “İzmir Bölgesi Girdi-Çıktı Analizi”, Proje Raporu, İzmir.
  • İZKA İzmir Kalkınma Ajansı (2021), “İzmir Bölgesel Girdi-Çıktı Analizi”, Proje Raporu, İzmir.
  • Karagiannis, G. & V. Tzouvelekas (2010), “Sectoral Linkages and Industrial Efficiency: A Dilemma or a Requisition in Identifying Development Priorities?”, Annals of Regional Science, 45, 207-233.
  • Kronenberg, T.(2009), “Construction of Regional Input-Output Tables Using Nonsurvey Methods: The Role of Cross-Hauling”, International Regional Science Review, 32(1), 40-64.
  • Lecomber, J. & C.R. Allen (1975), “A Critique of Methods of Adjusting, Updating and Projecting Matrices”, in: R.I.G. Allen & W.F. Gossling (eds), Estimating and Projecting Input-Output Coefficients (43-56), London: Input-Output Publishing Company.
  • Meller, P. & M. Marfán (1981), “Small and Large Industry: Employment Generation, Linkages, and Key Sectors”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 29, 263-274.
  • Milana, C. (1985), “Direct and Indirect Requirements for Gross Output in Input-Output Systems”, Metroeconomica, 37, 283-292.
  • Miller, R.E. & D.P. Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, Second Edition, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Miller, R.E. & M.L. Lahr (2001), “A Taxonomy of Extractions”, in: R.E. Miller & M.L. Lahr (eds.), Regional Science Perspectives in Economic Analysis (407-441), UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Paelinck, J. et al. (1965), “Analyse Quantitative de Certaines Phénomènes du Développment Régional Polarisé: Essai de Simulation Statique d’itéraires de Propogation”, in: Problémes de Conversion Èconomique: Analyses Théoretiques et Ètudes Appliquées (341-387), Bibliotèque de l’Institut de Science Économique, No. 7, Paris: M.-Th. Génin.
  • Pedauga, L. et al. (2022), “Macroeconomic Lockdown and SMEs: the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain”, Small Business Economics, 58(2), 665-688.
  • Perobelli, F.S. et al. (2010), “Structural Interdependence among Colombian Departments”, Economic Systems Research, 22, 279-300.
  • Rasmussen, P.N. (1957), Studies in Inter-Sectoral Relations, North-Holland: Amsterdam.
  • Reissi, S. et al. (2022), “Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 31(2), 358-409.
  • Ribeiro, L.C.S. et al. (2020), “Economic Impact of Covid-19 on Tourism in Brazil”, Dostupné, 22(4), 1-6.
  • Romero, C.H. & R.Ó. Marzábal (2020), “Sectoral Impacts of the Activity Standstill due to External Shocks such as Covid-19: An Approach based on the HypothetIcal ExtractIon Applied to the External Insertion of the Spanish Economy”, Revista De Economia Mundal, 56, 135-158.
  • Sajid, J.M. et al. (2019), “Demand and Supply Side Carbon Linkages of Turkish Economy Using Hypothetical Extraction Method”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 228, 264-275.
  • Sanguinet, E.R. et al. (2021), “The Subnational Supply Chain and the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Short‐term Impacts on the Brazilian Regional Economy”, Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13, 158-186.
  • Schultz, S. (1976), “Intersectoral Comparisons as an Approach to the Identification of Key Sectors”, in: K.R. Polenske & J.V. Skolka (eds.), Advances in Input-Output Analysis (137-159), Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger Publishing Company.
  • Schultz, S. (1977), “Approaches to Identifying Key Sectors Empirically by means of Input-Output Analysis”, Journal of Development Studies, 14, 77-96.
  • Song, Y. & C. Liu (2007), “An Input-Output Approach for Measuring Real Estate Sector Linkages”, Journal of Property Research, 24, 71-91.
  • Song, Y. et al. (2006) “Linkage Measures of the Construction Sector Using the Hypothetical Extraction Method”, Construction Management and Economics, 24, 579-589.
  • Stone, R. (1961), Input-Output Accounts and National Accounts, Organization for European Economic Corporation, Paris.
  • Strassert, G. (1968), “Zur Bestimmung strategischer Sektoren mit Hilfe von Input-Output-Modellen'', JahrbuÈcher fuÈr NationaloÈkonomie und Statistik, 182(3), 211-215.
  • Tsirimokos, C. (2022), “Estimating Energy Interindustry Linkages based on the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) in China and USA”, Journal of Environmental Studies, 79(4), 662-685.
  • TÜİK Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (N/A), Ulusal Hesaplar, Bölgesel Hesaplar Veri Seti, <https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ulusal-hesaplar-113&dil=1>, 14.05.2022.
  • Wang, Y. et al. (2013), “Industrial CO2 Emissions based on the Hypothetical Extraction Method: Linkage Analysis”, Energy Policy, 62, 1238-1244.
  • Yu, K.D.S. et al. (2020), “The Economic Impact of Lockdowns: A Persistent Inoperability Input-Output Approach”, Economies, 8(4), 109.

Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi

Yıl 2023, , 241 - 277, 28.04.2023

Zafer Barış Gül , Şebnem Arık , Mehmet Kula , Selim Çağatay , Şükrü Erdem

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12

Öz

Bu çalışmada sektörel kapanmaların Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) üzerindeki ekonomik etkileri varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, çıktı ve hanehalkı çarpanları ile hem geleneksel hem de varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi kullanılarak bulunan geri ve ileri bağlantı ölçüleri, kapanmanın etkilerini ve çıkış yollarını çözümleyebilmek için bir arada yorumlanmıştır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak 2017 yılı için kurulmuş bölgesel Girdi-Çıktı tablosu kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, kapanmasının bölge ekonomisi üzerinde en fazla küçülme yarattığı sektörlerin turizm, taşımacılık ve lojistik, tarım, gıda sanayii ve inşaat sektörleri olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, turizm sektörünün kapanmasının, en fazla olumsuz etkilediği sektör balıkçılık sektörü olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Girdi-Çıktı Analizi Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi Kapanma Bölgesel Etkiler

Teşekkür

Özenli okuması ve değerli eleştirileri için Akdeniz Üniversitesi İİBF İktisat Bölümü Araştırma Görevlisi Sn. İsmet Kabil Aksöz’e teşekkür ederiz.

Kaynakça

  • Ali, Y. (2015), “Measuring CO2 Emission Linkages with the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM)”, Ecological Indicators, 54, 171-183.
  • Ali, Y. et al. (2019), “A Comparative Input-Output Analysis of the Construction Sector in Three Developing Economies of South Asia”, Construction Management and Economics, 37(11), 643-658.
  • Altan, Ş. & A. Ediz (2009), “Girdi Katsayılarının Güncellenmesi için RAS ve Hedef Programlama Modellerinin Kullanımı”, Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(3), 79-92.
  • Bacharach, M. (1970), Bioproportional Matrices and Input-Output Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • BAKKA Batı Karadeniz Kalkınma Ajansı (2014), “TR81 Düzey 2 Bölgesinin Sektörel Yapı ve Rekabet Gücünün Girdi-Çıktı Modeli ile Analizi”, Proje Raporu, Proje No: TR81, DFD/013/004, Zonguldak.
  • Chenery, H.B. & T. Watanabe (1958), “International Comparisons of the Structure of Production”, Econometrica, 26(4), 487-521.
  • Dietzenbacher, E. et al. (2019), “Hypothetical Extractions from a Global Perspective”, Economic Systems Research, 31(4), 505-519.
  • Giammetti, R. et al. (2020), “The Italian value chain in the pandemic: the input-output impact of Covid-19 lockdown”, Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 47(3), 483-497.
  • Guerra, A.I. & F. Sancho (2010), “Measuring Energy Linkages with the Hypothetical Extraction Method: An application to Spain”, Energy Economics, 32, 831-837.
  • Gül, Z.B. et al. (2021), “Covid-19 Pandemisinin Sektörel Kapanma Etkileri: Varsayımsal Çıkarma (Hypothetical Extraction) Yöntemiyle Analiz”, İktisat ve Toplum, 124, 29-36.
  • Haddad, E.A. et al. (2020), “The impact of COVID-19 in Morocco: Macroeconomic, Sectoral and Regional Effects”, Policy Center for he New South: Africa Portal Research Paper, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
  • Haddad, E.A. et al. (2021), “Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input-output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19”, Spatial Economic Analysis, 16(3), 252-270.
  • Heimler, A. (1991), “Linkages and Vertical Integration in the Chinese Economy”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 261-267.
  • Hirschman, A.O. (1958), The Strategy of Economic Development, New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • İZKA İzmir Kalkınma Ajansı (2012), “İzmir Bölgesi Girdi-Çıktı Analizi”, Proje Raporu, İzmir.
  • İZKA İzmir Kalkınma Ajansı (2021), “İzmir Bölgesel Girdi-Çıktı Analizi”, Proje Raporu, İzmir.
  • Karagiannis, G. & V. Tzouvelekas (2010), “Sectoral Linkages and Industrial Efficiency: A Dilemma or a Requisition in Identifying Development Priorities?”, Annals of Regional Science, 45, 207-233.
  • Kronenberg, T.(2009), “Construction of Regional Input-Output Tables Using Nonsurvey Methods: The Role of Cross-Hauling”, International Regional Science Review, 32(1), 40-64.
  • Lecomber, J. & C.R. Allen (1975), “A Critique of Methods of Adjusting, Updating and Projecting Matrices”, in: R.I.G. Allen & W.F. Gossling (eds), Estimating and Projecting Input-Output Coefficients (43-56), London: Input-Output Publishing Company.
  • Meller, P. & M. Marfán (1981), “Small and Large Industry: Employment Generation, Linkages, and Key Sectors”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 29, 263-274.
  • Milana, C. (1985), “Direct and Indirect Requirements for Gross Output in Input-Output Systems”, Metroeconomica, 37, 283-292.
  • Miller, R.E. & D.P. Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, Second Edition, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Miller, R.E. & M.L. Lahr (2001), “A Taxonomy of Extractions”, in: R.E. Miller & M.L. Lahr (eds.), Regional Science Perspectives in Economic Analysis (407-441), UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Paelinck, J. et al. (1965), “Analyse Quantitative de Certaines Phénomènes du Développment Régional Polarisé: Essai de Simulation Statique d’itéraires de Propogation”, in: Problémes de Conversion Èconomique: Analyses Théoretiques et Ètudes Appliquées (341-387), Bibliotèque de l’Institut de Science Économique, No. 7, Paris: M.-Th. Génin.
  • Pedauga, L. et al. (2022), “Macroeconomic Lockdown and SMEs: the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain”, Small Business Economics, 58(2), 665-688.
  • Perobelli, F.S. et al. (2010), “Structural Interdependence among Colombian Departments”, Economic Systems Research, 22, 279-300.
  • Rasmussen, P.N. (1957), Studies in Inter-Sectoral Relations, North-Holland: Amsterdam.
  • Reissi, S. et al. (2022), “Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 31(2), 358-409.
  • Ribeiro, L.C.S. et al. (2020), “Economic Impact of Covid-19 on Tourism in Brazil”, Dostupné, 22(4), 1-6.
  • Romero, C.H. & R.Ó. Marzábal (2020), “Sectoral Impacts of the Activity Standstill due to External Shocks such as Covid-19: An Approach based on the HypothetIcal ExtractIon Applied to the External Insertion of the Spanish Economy”, Revista De Economia Mundal, 56, 135-158.
  • Sajid, J.M. et al. (2019), “Demand and Supply Side Carbon Linkages of Turkish Economy Using Hypothetical Extraction Method”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 228, 264-275.
  • Sanguinet, E.R. et al. (2021), “The Subnational Supply Chain and the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Short‐term Impacts on the Brazilian Regional Economy”, Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13, 158-186.
  • Schultz, S. (1976), “Intersectoral Comparisons as an Approach to the Identification of Key Sectors”, in: K.R. Polenske & J.V. Skolka (eds.), Advances in Input-Output Analysis (137-159), Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger Publishing Company.
  • Schultz, S. (1977), “Approaches to Identifying Key Sectors Empirically by means of Input-Output Analysis”, Journal of Development Studies, 14, 77-96.
  • Song, Y. & C. Liu (2007), “An Input-Output Approach for Measuring Real Estate Sector Linkages”, Journal of Property Research, 24, 71-91.
  • Song, Y. et al. (2006) “Linkage Measures of the Construction Sector Using the Hypothetical Extraction Method”, Construction Management and Economics, 24, 579-589.
  • Stone, R. (1961), Input-Output Accounts and National Accounts, Organization for European Economic Corporation, Paris.
  • Strassert, G. (1968), “Zur Bestimmung strategischer Sektoren mit Hilfe von Input-Output-Modellen'', JahrbuÈcher fuÈr NationaloÈkonomie und Statistik, 182(3), 211-215.
  • Tsirimokos, C. (2022), “Estimating Energy Interindustry Linkages based on the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) in China and USA”, Journal of Environmental Studies, 79(4), 662-685.
  • TÜİK Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (N/A), Ulusal Hesaplar, Bölgesel Hesaplar Veri Seti, <https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ulusal-hesaplar-113&dil=1>, 14.05.2022.
  • Wang, Y. et al. (2013), “Industrial CO2 Emissions based on the Hypothetical Extraction Method: Linkage Analysis”, Energy Policy, 62, 1238-1244.
  • Yu, K.D.S. et al. (2020), “The Economic Impact of Lockdowns: A Persistent Inoperability Input-Output Approach”, Economies, 8(4), 109.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Zafer Barış Gül 0000-0002-9991-7374

Şebnem Arık 0000-0002-1392-745X

Mehmet Kula 0000-0003-0538-2290

Selim Çağatay 0000-0002-5471-3474

Şükrü Erdem 0000-0001-6416-6657

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Nisan 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Temmuz 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023

Kaynak Göster

APA Gül, Z. B., Arık, Ş., Kula, M., Çağatay, S., vd. (2023). Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 31(56), 241-277. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12
AMA Gül ZB, Arık Ş, Kula M, Çağatay S, Erdem Ş. Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. Nisan 2023;31(56):241-277. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12
Chicago Gül, Zafer Barış, Şebnem Arık, Mehmet Kula, Selim Çağatay, ve Şükrü Erdem. “Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 31, sy. 56 (Nisan 2023): 241-77. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12.
EndNote Gül ZB, Arık Ş, Kula M, Çağatay S, Erdem Ş (01 Nisan 2023) Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi. Sosyoekonomi 31 56 241–277.
IEEE Z. B. Gül, Ş. Arık, M. Kula, S. Çağatay, ve Ş. Erdem, “Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 31, sy. 56, ss. 241–277, 2023, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12.
ISNAD Gül, Zafer Barış vd. “Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 31/56 (Nisan 2023), 241-277. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12.
JAMA Gül ZB, Arık Ş, Kula M, Çağatay S, Erdem Ş. Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2023;31:241–277.
MLA Gül, Zafer Barış vd. “Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 31, sy. 56, 2023, ss. 241-77, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12.
Vancouver Gül ZB, Arık Ş, Kula M, Çağatay S, Erdem Ş. Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2023;31(56):241-77.