Seasonality in the Airline Industry: An Empirical Analysis Based on Stock Prices

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 67, 443 - 464, 31.01.2026

Samet Evci , Mustafa Can Samırkaş , Meryem Samırkaş Komşu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2026.01.19

https://izlik.org/JA84EX77SW

Öz

This study aims to examine the impact of seasonality in the airline industry by analysing the daily stock prices of airline companies listed on the stock exchanges of France, Spain, Greece, and Türkiye, which have similar climate characteristics, as well as the global airline index over the period January 2012 to May 2024. The findings of the regression analysis using dummy variables indicate that seasonality is significant for the global airline index and for airlines in all countries except Türkiye. Notably, average returns during the winter months are higher than those in the summer months. Furthermore, even after accounting for outliers identified within the sample period, the seasonal effect persists.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seasonality , Airline Industry , Calendar Anomaly , Efficient Markets

Havayolu Sektöründe Mevsimsellik: Pay Fiyatlarına Dayalı Ampirik Bir Analiz

https://izlik.org/JA84EX77SW

Öz

Bu çalışmada, benzer iklim özelliklerine sahip Fransa, İspanya, Yunanistan ve Türkiye menkul kıymet borsalarında işlem gören havayolu firmalarının ve global havayolu endeksinin Ocak 2012-Mayıs 2024 dönemleri arasındaki günlük pay fiyatları üzerinden, sektörde sezonsallığın etkisinin ortaya konulması amaçlanmaktadır. Kukla değişkenlerin kullanıldığı regresyon analiz bulguları, Türkiye dışındaki diğer ülkelerin havayolu firmalarında ve global havayolu endeksinde sezonsallığın anlamlı olduğunu ve kış aylarındaki ortalama getirinin yaz aylarına göre daha yüksek olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bunun yanı sıra ilgili dönemlerde ortaya çıkan aykırı değerler dikkate alındığında sezonsallık devam etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mevsimsellik , Havayolu Sektörü , Takvim Anomalisi , Etkin Piyasalar

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