Kamu Harcamaları, Hükümet İstikrarı ve Yozlaşmanın Kişi Başı Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Ampirik Bir Değerlendirme
Yıl 2018,
, 11 - 32, 30.04.2018
Selçuk Çağrı Esener
,
Evren İpek
Öz
Bu çalışmada kamu harcamaları, hükümet istikrarı ve yozlaşmanın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin dışa açıklık ve nüfus artışı gibi kontrol değişkenleriyle incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Ampirik analizler Dünya Bankasınca üst ve alt orta gelirli olarak sınıflandırılmış 33 ülkenin 1999-2014 dönemine ilişkin yıllık panel verileri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Statik ve dinamik panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen ampirik analiz sonuçları ilgili ülkelerde kamu istikrarı ve dışa açıklık değişkenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki istatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif etkilerine işaret etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, yozlaşma, nüfus artışı ve kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönlü etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Kaynakça
- Abu-Bader S., A.S. Abu-Qarn (2003), “Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, 567-583.
- Aisen, A., F. J. Veiga (2013), “How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?” IMF Working Paper, WP/11/12, 1-29.
- Alesina, A., S. Ozler, N. Roubini, P. Swagel (1996), “Political Instability and Economic Growth”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 4173,1-49.
- Altunc, O. F., C.Aydın (2013), “The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 92, 66 – 75.
- Arellano, M. (2003), Panel Data Econometrics, Oxford University Press, New York.
- Arellano, M., Bond, S., (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
- Arellano, M., Bover, O. (1995), “Another Look at The Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68: 29-51.
- Asteriou, D., Hall, S. G. (2007), Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using Eviews and Microfit, Revised Ed., Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
- Baliamoune-Lutz, M., L. Ndikumana (2008), “Corruption and Growth: Exploring the Investment Channel”, University of Massachusetts Economics Department Working Paper Series,1-21.
- Baltagi, B.H. (2013), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Fifth Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester.
- Barro, R. J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), 407-443.
- Blackburn, K., G. F. Forgues-Puccio (2010), “Financial Liberalization, Bureaucratic Corruption and Economic Development”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 1321–1339.
- Bleaney, M., N. Gemmell, R. Kneller (2001), “Testing the Endogenous Growth Model: Public Expenditure, Taxation and Growth Over the Long Run”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 34(1), 36-57.
- Blundell, R., Bond S. (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 87, 115-143.
- Brooks, C. (2008), Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
- Campos, N. F., J. B. Nugent (2002), “Who is Afraid of Political Instability?”, Journal of Development Economics, 67, 157–172.
- Chen B., Y. Feng (1996), “Some Political Determinants of Economic Growth: Theory and Empirical Implications”, European Journal of Political Economy, 12, 609-627.
- Chude, N. P. and D. I. Chude (2013), “Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Nigeria”, International Journal of Business and Management Review, 1(4), 64-71.
- Dar, A. A., S. AmirKhalkhali (2002), “Government Size, Factor Accumulation and Economic Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, 679-692.
- Darby, J., C. Li, V. A. Muscatelli (2004), “Political Uncertainty, Public Expenditure and Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 20, 153–179.
- Devarajan, S., V. Swaroop, H. Zou (1996), “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 313-344.
- Dunne, J. P., Perlo- Freeman, S., Soydan, A. (2004a), “Military Expenditure and Debt in South America”, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 173-187.
- Dunne, J. P., Perlo- Freeman, S., Soydan, A. (2004b), “Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialised Economies: A Panel Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 125-132.
- Eberhardt, M. (2011), Panel Time-Series Modeling: New Tools for Analyzing XT Data, http://www.stata.com/meeting/uk11/abstracts/UK11_eberhardt.pdf
- Esener, S.Ç. (2013), Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde ve Türkiye'de Dış Borçlanmanın Belirleyicilerinin İncelenmesi: 1980-2010, T.C. Maliye Bakanlığı, Strateji Geliştirme Başkanlığı Yayınları, Hermes Matbaacılık, Ankara Yayın No: 2013/424.
- Esener, S.Ç. (2016), “Türkiye de Aileden Biri Olsaydı: Maliye Politikasının Seçilmiş Avrupa Birliği Üyesi Ülkelerde ve Türkiye'de Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri”. Journal of Life Economics, 3(3), 119-138., Doi: 10.15637 (Yayın No: 2869422).
- Esener, S.Ç., İpek, E. (2015), “Expanding Effects of Military Expenditures on External Debt in Developing Countries, Journal of Business, Economics & Finance, Vol (4), 2015, 617-632.
- Fölster, S., M. Henrekson (2001), “Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries”, European Economic Review, 45, 1501-1520.
- Freckleton, M., A. Wright, R. Craigwell (2012), “Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and Corruption in Developed and Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Studies, 39 (6), 639-652, doi: 10.1108/01443581211274593.
- Gurgul, H., Q. Lach (2013), “Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Decades of Transition in CEE”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 46, 189–202.
- Guetat, I. (2006), “The Effects of Corruption on Growth Performance on The Mena Countries”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 30(2), 208-221.
- Gyimah-Brempong, K. (2002), “Corruption, Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Africa”, Economics of Governance, 3, 183-209.
- Greene, W.H. (2003), Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, Prentice Hall, London.
- Hayashi, F. (2000), Econometrics, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
- Ighodaro, C. A. U., D. E. Oriakhi (2010), “Does The Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Follow Wagner’s Law in Nigeria?” Annals of The University of Petroşani, Economics, 10(2), 185-198.
- International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), The PRS Group Database, [Online] at http://epub.prsgroup.com/the-countrydata-gateway
Jain, A. K. (2001), “Corruption: A Review”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 15(1), 71-121.
- Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009), “On The Measurement of Political Instability and Its Impact on Economic Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 25, 15–29.
- Kar, M., S. Taban (2003), “The Impacts of the Disaggregated Public Expenditure on Economic Growth”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 58, 3, 145-169.
- Loizides, J., G. Vamvoukas (2005), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing”, Journal of Applied Economics, 8,1, 125-152.
- Magazzino, C. (2012), “Wagner Versus Keynes: Public Spending and National Income in Italy”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 890–905.
- Mahmoodi, M., E. Mahmoodi (2014), “Government Expenditure-GDP Nexus: Panel Causality Evidence”, International Journal of Economy, Management and Social Sciences, 3(1), 37-42.
- Mauro, P. (1995), “Corruption and Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (3), 681-712.
- Me´ndez, F., F. Sepu´ lveda (2006), “Corruption, Growth and Political Regimes: Cross Country Evidence”, European Journal of Political Economy, 22, 82– 98.
- Mileva, E., (2007), Using Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM Estimators in Stata: Tutorial with Examples Using Stata 9.0, Economics Dept., Fordham University.
- Mo, P. H. (2001), “Corruption and Economic Growth”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 29, 66–79. doi:10.1006/jcec.2000.1703
Monte, A.D., E. Papagni (2001), “Public Expenditure, Corruption, and Economic Growth: The Case of Italy”, European Journal of Political Economy, 17,1–16.
- Nurudeen, A., A. Usman (2010), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2008: A Disaggregated Analysis”, Business and Economics Journal, Volume 2010: BEJ-4, 1-11.
- Oktayer, A., N. Oktayer (2013), “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey: Evidence from A Trivariate Causality Analysis”, Prague Economıc Papers, 2, 284-301. DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.452
- Ono, H. (2014), “The Government Expenditure-Economic Growth Relation in Japan: An Analysis by Using the ADL Test for Threshold Cointegration”, Applied Economics, 46:28, 3523-3531, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.932046
- Samudram, M., M. Nair, S. Vaithilingam (2009), “Keynes and Wagner on Government Expenditures and Economic Development: The Case of a Developing Economy”, Empirical Economics., 36, 697–712. DOI 10.1007/s00181-008-0214-1.
- Treisman, D. (2000), “The Causes of Corruption: A Cross-National Study”, Journal of Public Economics, 76, 399–457.
Windmeijer, F. (2005), “A Finite Sample Correction for The Variance of Linear Efficient Two-Step GMM Estimators”, Journal of Econometrics, 126: 25-51.
- Wooldridge, J. M. (2002), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, The MIT Press, Massachusetts.
- World Bank, World Bank Database, [Online] at http://data.worldbank.org
- Wu, S., J.Tang, E. S. Lin. (2010), “The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: How Sensitive to The Level of Development?” Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 804–817.
The Impacts of Public Expenditure, Government Stability and Corruption on Per Capita Growth: An Empirical Investigation on Developing Countries
Yıl 2018,
, 11 - 32, 30.04.2018
Selçuk Çağrı Esener
,
Evren İpek
Öz
This study aims to evaluate the effects of public expenditure, government stability and corruption on economic growth with other control variables namely openness and population growth. The empirical analyses are utilized by using annual panel data for 33 countries which are classified as Upper and Lower Middle-Income Countries by World Bank. The sample period covers the years between 1999 and 2014. The empirical analyses are performed by both the static panel data approach and dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques. The estimation results point out statistically significant positive impacts of government stability and openness variables on per capita growth in these developing countries. Moreover, corruption, population growth and public expenditure variables are found to cause some significant decreasing effects on economic growth.
Kaynakça
- Abu-Bader S., A.S. Abu-Qarn (2003), “Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, 567-583.
- Aisen, A., F. J. Veiga (2013), “How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?” IMF Working Paper, WP/11/12, 1-29.
- Alesina, A., S. Ozler, N. Roubini, P. Swagel (1996), “Political Instability and Economic Growth”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 4173,1-49.
- Altunc, O. F., C.Aydın (2013), “The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 92, 66 – 75.
- Arellano, M. (2003), Panel Data Econometrics, Oxford University Press, New York.
- Arellano, M., Bond, S., (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
- Arellano, M., Bover, O. (1995), “Another Look at The Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68: 29-51.
- Asteriou, D., Hall, S. G. (2007), Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using Eviews and Microfit, Revised Ed., Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
- Baliamoune-Lutz, M., L. Ndikumana (2008), “Corruption and Growth: Exploring the Investment Channel”, University of Massachusetts Economics Department Working Paper Series,1-21.
- Baltagi, B.H. (2013), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Fifth Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester.
- Barro, R. J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), 407-443.
- Blackburn, K., G. F. Forgues-Puccio (2010), “Financial Liberalization, Bureaucratic Corruption and Economic Development”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 1321–1339.
- Bleaney, M., N. Gemmell, R. Kneller (2001), “Testing the Endogenous Growth Model: Public Expenditure, Taxation and Growth Over the Long Run”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 34(1), 36-57.
- Blundell, R., Bond S. (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 87, 115-143.
- Brooks, C. (2008), Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
- Campos, N. F., J. B. Nugent (2002), “Who is Afraid of Political Instability?”, Journal of Development Economics, 67, 157–172.
- Chen B., Y. Feng (1996), “Some Political Determinants of Economic Growth: Theory and Empirical Implications”, European Journal of Political Economy, 12, 609-627.
- Chude, N. P. and D. I. Chude (2013), “Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Nigeria”, International Journal of Business and Management Review, 1(4), 64-71.
- Dar, A. A., S. AmirKhalkhali (2002), “Government Size, Factor Accumulation and Economic Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, 679-692.
- Darby, J., C. Li, V. A. Muscatelli (2004), “Political Uncertainty, Public Expenditure and Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 20, 153–179.
- Devarajan, S., V. Swaroop, H. Zou (1996), “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 313-344.
- Dunne, J. P., Perlo- Freeman, S., Soydan, A. (2004a), “Military Expenditure and Debt in South America”, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 173-187.
- Dunne, J. P., Perlo- Freeman, S., Soydan, A. (2004b), “Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialised Economies: A Panel Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 125-132.
- Eberhardt, M. (2011), Panel Time-Series Modeling: New Tools for Analyzing XT Data, http://www.stata.com/meeting/uk11/abstracts/UK11_eberhardt.pdf
- Esener, S.Ç. (2013), Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde ve Türkiye'de Dış Borçlanmanın Belirleyicilerinin İncelenmesi: 1980-2010, T.C. Maliye Bakanlığı, Strateji Geliştirme Başkanlığı Yayınları, Hermes Matbaacılık, Ankara Yayın No: 2013/424.
- Esener, S.Ç. (2016), “Türkiye de Aileden Biri Olsaydı: Maliye Politikasının Seçilmiş Avrupa Birliği Üyesi Ülkelerde ve Türkiye'de Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri”. Journal of Life Economics, 3(3), 119-138., Doi: 10.15637 (Yayın No: 2869422).
- Esener, S.Ç., İpek, E. (2015), “Expanding Effects of Military Expenditures on External Debt in Developing Countries, Journal of Business, Economics & Finance, Vol (4), 2015, 617-632.
- Fölster, S., M. Henrekson (2001), “Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries”, European Economic Review, 45, 1501-1520.
- Freckleton, M., A. Wright, R. Craigwell (2012), “Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and Corruption in Developed and Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Studies, 39 (6), 639-652, doi: 10.1108/01443581211274593.
- Gurgul, H., Q. Lach (2013), “Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Decades of Transition in CEE”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 46, 189–202.
- Guetat, I. (2006), “The Effects of Corruption on Growth Performance on The Mena Countries”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 30(2), 208-221.
- Gyimah-Brempong, K. (2002), “Corruption, Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Africa”, Economics of Governance, 3, 183-209.
- Greene, W.H. (2003), Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, Prentice Hall, London.
- Hayashi, F. (2000), Econometrics, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
- Ighodaro, C. A. U., D. E. Oriakhi (2010), “Does The Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Follow Wagner’s Law in Nigeria?” Annals of The University of Petroşani, Economics, 10(2), 185-198.
- International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), The PRS Group Database, [Online] at http://epub.prsgroup.com/the-countrydata-gateway
Jain, A. K. (2001), “Corruption: A Review”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 15(1), 71-121.
- Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009), “On The Measurement of Political Instability and Its Impact on Economic Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 25, 15–29.
- Kar, M., S. Taban (2003), “The Impacts of the Disaggregated Public Expenditure on Economic Growth”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 58, 3, 145-169.
- Loizides, J., G. Vamvoukas (2005), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing”, Journal of Applied Economics, 8,1, 125-152.
- Magazzino, C. (2012), “Wagner Versus Keynes: Public Spending and National Income in Italy”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 890–905.
- Mahmoodi, M., E. Mahmoodi (2014), “Government Expenditure-GDP Nexus: Panel Causality Evidence”, International Journal of Economy, Management and Social Sciences, 3(1), 37-42.
- Mauro, P. (1995), “Corruption and Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (3), 681-712.
- Me´ndez, F., F. Sepu´ lveda (2006), “Corruption, Growth and Political Regimes: Cross Country Evidence”, European Journal of Political Economy, 22, 82– 98.
- Mileva, E., (2007), Using Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM Estimators in Stata: Tutorial with Examples Using Stata 9.0, Economics Dept., Fordham University.
- Mo, P. H. (2001), “Corruption and Economic Growth”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 29, 66–79. doi:10.1006/jcec.2000.1703
Monte, A.D., E. Papagni (2001), “Public Expenditure, Corruption, and Economic Growth: The Case of Italy”, European Journal of Political Economy, 17,1–16.
- Nurudeen, A., A. Usman (2010), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2008: A Disaggregated Analysis”, Business and Economics Journal, Volume 2010: BEJ-4, 1-11.
- Oktayer, A., N. Oktayer (2013), “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey: Evidence from A Trivariate Causality Analysis”, Prague Economıc Papers, 2, 284-301. DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.452
- Ono, H. (2014), “The Government Expenditure-Economic Growth Relation in Japan: An Analysis by Using the ADL Test for Threshold Cointegration”, Applied Economics, 46:28, 3523-3531, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.932046
- Samudram, M., M. Nair, S. Vaithilingam (2009), “Keynes and Wagner on Government Expenditures and Economic Development: The Case of a Developing Economy”, Empirical Economics., 36, 697–712. DOI 10.1007/s00181-008-0214-1.
- Treisman, D. (2000), “The Causes of Corruption: A Cross-National Study”, Journal of Public Economics, 76, 399–457.
Windmeijer, F. (2005), “A Finite Sample Correction for The Variance of Linear Efficient Two-Step GMM Estimators”, Journal of Econometrics, 126: 25-51.
- Wooldridge, J. M. (2002), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, The MIT Press, Massachusetts.
- World Bank, World Bank Database, [Online] at http://data.worldbank.org
- Wu, S., J.Tang, E. S. Lin. (2010), “The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: How Sensitive to The Level of Development?” Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 804–817.