ABD İşgücü Piyasasında Histeresi Etkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Yeni Keynesyen Ücret Phillips Eğrisi (1990-2014)

Öz

Bu çalışmada ABD ekonomisinde doğal işsizlik oranına karşı histeresi hipotezinin geçerliliği (1990:Q1-2014Q4) dönemi için araştırılmaktadır. Anaakım iktisat uzun dönemde, yüksek ve yapışkan işsizlik histeresi hipotezini değil, doğal oranı benimsemektedir. Birim kök testleri işsizlik/istihdam serilerinde durağan dışılık tespit etmiştir. Sonra, teorik çerçeve çizilerek, “beşeri sermaye” ve “içeridekiler-dışarıdakiler” hipotezleri de açıklanmıştır. Yeni Keynesyen Ücret Phillips Eğrisi (NKWPC) çerçevesinde ücret enflasyonu işsizlik, istihdam ve daha sonra çıktı açığı ve çıktı büyüme oranı değişkenlerine karşı tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre histeresi etkisi bulunmamakta, sadece çıktı büyüme oranı ile 2001 resesyonu esnasında gözlenmektedir. İşsizlik/istihdam serilerindeki durağan dışılığa talep şokları veya işgücü piyasası değişkenleri neden olabileceğinden ekonomi politikası tercihleri buna uygun olarak gerçekleştirilmelidir: talep yönlü politikalar veya işgücü piyasası tedbirleri.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yeni Keynesyen Ekonomi,Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar,İşgücü Piyasaları,Histeresi Zaman Serisi Modelleri

Empirical Evidence on the US Labour Market Hysteresis: New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (1990-2014)

Öz

This study investigates the concept of hysteresis for the US economy vs natural rate hypothesis during (1990:Q1-2014:Q4). Mainstream economics accepts the natural rate in the long run vs high and persistent unemployment idea of hysteresis. Unit root tests detect the nonstationarity of (un)employment series which may indicate hysteresis. Next, macroeconomic background is presented, and human capital or insider-outsider approaches are explained. With the (NKWPC) model, wage inflation is estimated with (un)employment variables and further with the output gap and growth of excess demand. Results reveal no hysteresis patterns except with the rate of change (ROC) of output during 2001 recession. Demand shocks or labour market factors may be causing nonstationarity of (un)employment according to which economic policy choice should be made regarding: demand management policies vs. labour market measures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• New Keynesian Economics,Business Cycles,Labour Market Structure,Hysteresis,Time Series Models

Kaynakça

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