Türkiye’de Cinsiyete Göre Yaşam Süresinin Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi

Yıl 2021, , 85 - 111, 30.07.2021

İsmail Şentürk , Amjad Ali

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.05

Cited By: 11

Öz

Bu çalışmada 1971-2017 döneminde Türkiye’de toplam ve cinsiyete göre yaşam süresini etkileyen sosyoekonomik faktörleri incelemektedir. Değişkenlerin durağanlığının test edilmesi amacıyla ADF, PP ve DFGLS birim kök testleri, yapısal kırılmanın var olup olmadığının test edilebilmesi için ise Zivot and Andrews (2002) birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşmenin varlığını kontrol etmek için ise ARDL sınır testi kullanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre eğitim düzeyi, satın alma gücü ve ekonomik gelişme ortalama yaşam süresi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Ancak nüfus artışının ve çevresel bozulmanın ise anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Erkekleri içeren modelde çevresel bozulma, satın alma gücü ve eğitim düzeyi anlamlı etkiye sahipken, ekonomik gelişme ve erkek nüfus oranı anlamlı etkiye sahip değildir. Kadınları içeren model ise çevresel bozulma, kadın eğitim düzeyi, doğurganlık oranı ve kadın nüfus oranı anlamlı etkiye sahiptir. Ancak satın alma gücü anlamlı bir etkiye sahip bulunmamıştır. Sonuç olarak Türkiye’de yaşam süresinin artırılması için eğitim düzeyinin artırılması, istikrarlı bir satın alma gücünün oluşturulması ve doğurganlık oranının kontrol altında tutulduğu süründürülebilir bir gelişmenin sağlanması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yaşam Süresi, Eğitim, Çevresel Bozulma, Nüfus Artışı

Socioeconomic Determinants of Gender-Specific Life Expectancy in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis

Öz

This paper analyses the socioeconomic determinants of Turkey’s aggregate and gender-specific life expectancies from 1971 to 2017. The stationarity of data is checked with ADF, PP, and DFGLS unit root tests, while structural breaks are determined with the help of Zivot and Andrews (2002) unit root test. Also, ARDL bound test is conducted to identify co-integration. The estimated results show that the overall level of education, purchasing power, and economic development have a significant role in deciding the average life expectancy among the Turkish population at the aggregate, while population growth and environmental degradation are found to be insignificant. Gender-wise, estimation results show that environmental degradation, purchasing power, and level of male education contribute significantly to the life expectancy of males in Turkey, while economic development and the share of the male population are found to have insignificant effects. Moreover, environmental degradation, female education, fertility rates, and the female population significantly affect females' life expectancy, while purchasing power plays a statistically insignificant role. Overall, the results suggest that Turkey's government should implement policies to increase educational attainment, stabilize purchasing power, and maintain sustainable development with controlled fertility rates for higher-level life expectancy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Life Expectancy, Education, Environmental Degradation, Population Growth

Kaynakça

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