PMI Öncü Bir Gösterge mi? Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2020, , 37 - 47, 30.07.2020

Saffet Akdağ , Ali Deran Ömer İskenderoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.03

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmada Satınalma Yöneticileri Endeksi (PMI) ile çeşitli finansal faktörler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda BİST Sanayi Endeksindeki değişimin PMI’daki değişimin nedeni olduğu, PMI’daki değişimin ise Sanayi Üretim Endeksi (SÜE) ve Kapasite Kullanım Oranındaki (KKO) değişimin nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca BİST Sanayi Endeksinden PMI’ya doğru nedenselliğin orta ve uzun dönemli, benzer şekilde PMI’dan SÜE doğru nedenselliğinde yine orta ve uzun dönemli olduğu, ancak PMI’dan KKO’na doğru nedenselliğin ise tüm dönemlerde geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlara göre PMI’ın reel sektör için öncü bir gösterge olabileceği değerlendirilebilirken, finansal sektör için benzer bir durumun söz konusu olmadığı değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Satınalma Yöneticileri Endeksi, BİST Sanayi Endeksi, Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, Kapasite Kullanım Oranı, Granger Nedensellik, Frekans Nedensellik Analizi

Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey

Öz

In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the change in the Istanbul-Stock-Exchange-Industry Index (ISEIND) causes the change in the PMI and the changes in the PMI also causes the changes in the Industrial-Production Index (IPI) and the Capacity-Utilization-Rates (CUR). It is also determined that the causality towards to PMI from the ISEIND and causality towards IPI from PMI is valid in the medium- and long-run, whereas the causality towards PMI to CUR are valid for the all periods. According to these results, PMI can be considered as a leading indicator for the real sector. However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Purchasing Manager’s Index, Istanbul Stock Exchange Industry Index, Industrial Production Index, Capacity Utilization Rates, Granger Casuality, Frequency Domain Causality

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