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New Indicators Developed for Assessing Optimal Reserve Level in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Yıl 2021, , 407 - 429, 25.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20

Öz

With the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, developing a new metric, which takes into account the dynamics of particularly developing and low-income countries, seemed necessary, as a result of traditional methods used to determine the reserve adequacy being partially inadequate and often giving conflicting signals. The aim of this study is to examine the reserve adequacy for Turkey by using the new metric developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to respond to the need of developing a new measure to evaluate reserve adequacy. The analysis covers the period from 2005:Q4 through 2019:Q4. In the analysis, the RALS (Residual Augmented Least Squares) ADF unit root test proposed by Im et al (2014) is employed. Our results support the evidence of reserve adequacy for Turkey in the relevant period. On the other hand, the reserves do not seem to have a stable trend.

Kaynakça

  • Aizenman, J. & J. Lee (2007), “International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory, and Evidence”, Open Economies Review, 18(2), 191-214.
  • Arslan, Y. & G.C. Cantú (2019), “The Size of Foreign Exchange Reserves”, BIS Paper No: 104a.
  • Bloomberg (2019), Why Is Everyone Worried About Turkey’s Foreign Reserves?, <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-18/why-s-everyone-worried-about-turkey-s-foreign-reserves>, 14.01.2013.
  • Caballero, R.J. & S. Panageas (2004), “Contingent Reserves Management: An Applied Framework”, MIT Department of Economics Working Paper, No: 04-32.
  • CEIC (2020), Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves, <https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/turkey/foreign-exchange-reserves>, 15.03.2020.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2019), Inflation Report 2019-II, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/search+results?search-query=inflation+report>, 20.10.2019.
  • Davis, J. & D. Cowley & M. Morris (2018), “Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S Monetary Policy”, Economic Letter, 13(9).
  • Delatte, A.L. & J. Fouquau (2012), “What Drove the Massive Hoarding of International Reserves in Emerging Economies? A Time‐Varying Approach”, Review of International Economics, 20(1), 164-176.
  • Eren, B. (2017), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Rezerv Talebini Etkileyen Faktörler ve Rezerv Yeterliliği”, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, 2017X, 1-92.
  • Fatum, R. & J. Yetman (2020), “Accumulation of Foreign Currency Reserves and Risk-Taking”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 102(102097), 1-32.
  • Feldstein, M. (1999), “A Self-Help Guide for Emerging Markets”, Foreign Affairs, March/April.
  • Financial Times (2020), Turkey Restocks Foreign-Currency War Chest by Increasing Borrowing, <https://www.ft.com/content/52f6df32-58b5-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc>, 13.03.2020.
  • García, P. & C. Soto (2004), “Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?“, Central Bank of Chile, Working Papers, No: 299.
  • Ghosh, A. & R. Jonathan & D. Ostry & C. Tsangarides (2012), “Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s”, IMF Working Paper.
  • Jeanne, O. & R.G. Ranciere (2006), “The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Economies: Formulas and Applications”, IMF Working Paper, 229.
  • Jeanne, O. & R.G. Rancière (2011), “The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications”, The Economic Journal, 121(555), 905-930.
  • Kılcı, E.N. (2019), “Reserve Adequacy in Turkey: A Study on Comparison of the Reserves with Imports and Short- Term External Debt”, Academic Review of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(4), 578-588.
  • Marion, V.W. (2005), “Foreign Exchange Reserves, How much is enough?”, BIS Review, 01/2006.
  • Im K.S. & J. Lee & M.A. Tieslau (2014), “More Powerful Unit Root Tests with Non-normal Errors”, içinde: R.C. Sickles & W.C. Horrace (eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 315-342.
  • International Monetary Fund (1993), International Monetary Fund: Balance of Payments Manual, <https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/bopman.pdf>, 20.09.2019.
  • International Monatary Fund (2001), “Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Market Economies”, IMF Working Papers, WP/01/43.
  • International Monetary Fund (2011a), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • International Monetary Fund (2011b), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy-Supplementary Information”, IMF Policy Paper. International Monetary Fund (2013), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Further Considerations”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • International Monetary Fund (2015), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • International Monetary Fund (2016), “Guidance Note on the Assessment of Reserve Adequacy and Related Considerations”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • Reuters (2019), Lira May be Turkey’s Achilles Heel in Syria Battle, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-economy-reserves/lira-may-be-turkeys-achilles-heel-in-syria-battle-idUSKBN1WX1FI>, 10.11.2019.
  • Silva, A.F.A. (2011), “The Self-insurance Role of International Reserves and the 2008-2010 Crisis”, Central Bank of Brazil, Working Papers Series, No: 256.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası (2011), Merkez Banklarında Rezerv ve Risk Yönetimi, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e/11-7.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e-m3fB7Ju>, 15.12.2019.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası (2020a), Uluslararası Rezervler, <https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard/1397>, 17.02.2020.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası (2020b), Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, <https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket>, 20.02.2020.
  • Wijnholds, J.O.B. & A. Kapteyn (2001), “Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Market Economies”, IMF Working Paper, No: 143.

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2021, , 407 - 429, 25.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20

Öz

2008-09 Küresel Finansal Krizi ile birlikte, rezervlerin yeterliliğinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla kullanılan geleneksel yöntemlerin kısmen yetersiz kalması ve genellikle birbiriyle çelişen sinyaller vermesi, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve düşük gelir düzeyine sahip ülkeler için, ülkelere özgü dinamiklerin göz önünde bulundurularak, geleneksel yöntemlerde odaklanılan riskleri çok yönlü ele alan yeni bir metriğin geliştirilmesi ihtiyacını doğurmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için, Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından, rezerv yeterliliğinin tespit edilmesine yönelik geliştirilen yeni metriğin kullanılarak, rezervlerin yeterliliğinin araştırılmasıdır. Çalışma dönemi, 2005:Ç42019:Ç4 dönemi verilerini kapsamaktadır. Analizde, Im vd. (2014) tarafından geliştirilen, RALS (Residual Augmented Least Squares) ADF birimkök testi kullanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, Türkiye’de, söz konusu dönemde rezervlerin yeterli olduğunu; diğer yandan istikrarlı bir trende sahip olmadığını göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Aizenman, J. & J. Lee (2007), “International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory, and Evidence”, Open Economies Review, 18(2), 191-214.
  • Arslan, Y. & G.C. Cantú (2019), “The Size of Foreign Exchange Reserves”, BIS Paper No: 104a.
  • Bloomberg (2019), Why Is Everyone Worried About Turkey’s Foreign Reserves?, <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-18/why-s-everyone-worried-about-turkey-s-foreign-reserves>, 14.01.2013.
  • Caballero, R.J. & S. Panageas (2004), “Contingent Reserves Management: An Applied Framework”, MIT Department of Economics Working Paper, No: 04-32.
  • CEIC (2020), Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves, <https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/turkey/foreign-exchange-reserves>, 15.03.2020.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2019), Inflation Report 2019-II, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/search+results?search-query=inflation+report>, 20.10.2019.
  • Davis, J. & D. Cowley & M. Morris (2018), “Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S Monetary Policy”, Economic Letter, 13(9).
  • Delatte, A.L. & J. Fouquau (2012), “What Drove the Massive Hoarding of International Reserves in Emerging Economies? A Time‐Varying Approach”, Review of International Economics, 20(1), 164-176.
  • Eren, B. (2017), “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Rezerv Talebini Etkileyen Faktörler ve Rezerv Yeterliliği”, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, 2017X, 1-92.
  • Fatum, R. & J. Yetman (2020), “Accumulation of Foreign Currency Reserves and Risk-Taking”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 102(102097), 1-32.
  • Feldstein, M. (1999), “A Self-Help Guide for Emerging Markets”, Foreign Affairs, March/April.
  • Financial Times (2020), Turkey Restocks Foreign-Currency War Chest by Increasing Borrowing, <https://www.ft.com/content/52f6df32-58b5-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc>, 13.03.2020.
  • García, P. & C. Soto (2004), “Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?“, Central Bank of Chile, Working Papers, No: 299.
  • Ghosh, A. & R. Jonathan & D. Ostry & C. Tsangarides (2012), “Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets since the 1980s”, IMF Working Paper.
  • Jeanne, O. & R.G. Ranciere (2006), “The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Economies: Formulas and Applications”, IMF Working Paper, 229.
  • Jeanne, O. & R.G. Rancière (2011), “The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications”, The Economic Journal, 121(555), 905-930.
  • Kılcı, E.N. (2019), “Reserve Adequacy in Turkey: A Study on Comparison of the Reserves with Imports and Short- Term External Debt”, Academic Review of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(4), 578-588.
  • Marion, V.W. (2005), “Foreign Exchange Reserves, How much is enough?”, BIS Review, 01/2006.
  • Im K.S. & J. Lee & M.A. Tieslau (2014), “More Powerful Unit Root Tests with Non-normal Errors”, içinde: R.C. Sickles & W.C. Horrace (eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 315-342.
  • International Monetary Fund (1993), International Monetary Fund: Balance of Payments Manual, <https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/bopman.pdf>, 20.09.2019.
  • International Monatary Fund (2001), “Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Market Economies”, IMF Working Papers, WP/01/43.
  • International Monetary Fund (2011a), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • International Monetary Fund (2011b), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy-Supplementary Information”, IMF Policy Paper. International Monetary Fund (2013), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Further Considerations”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • International Monetary Fund (2015), “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • International Monetary Fund (2016), “Guidance Note on the Assessment of Reserve Adequacy and Related Considerations”, IMF Policy Paper.
  • Reuters (2019), Lira May be Turkey’s Achilles Heel in Syria Battle, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-economy-reserves/lira-may-be-turkeys-achilles-heel-in-syria-battle-idUSKBN1WX1FI>, 10.11.2019.
  • Silva, A.F.A. (2011), “The Self-insurance Role of International Reserves and the 2008-2010 Crisis”, Central Bank of Brazil, Working Papers Series, No: 256.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası (2011), Merkez Banklarında Rezerv ve Risk Yönetimi, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e/11-7.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e-m3fB7Ju>, 15.12.2019.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası (2020a), Uluslararası Rezervler, <https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard/1397>, 17.02.2020.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası (2020b), Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, <https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket>, 20.02.2020.
  • Wijnholds, J.O.B. & A. Kapteyn (2001), “Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Market Economies”, IMF Working Paper, No: 143.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Esra N. Kılcı 0000-0002-2239-4560

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Ocak 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 23 Nisan 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021

Kaynak Göster

APA Kılcı, E. N. (2021). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz. Sosyoekonomi, 29(47), 407-429. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20
AMA Kılcı EN. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz. Sosyoekonomi. Ocak 2021;29(47):407-429. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20
Chicago Kılcı, Esra N. “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz”. Sosyoekonomi 29, sy. 47 (Ocak 2021): 407-29. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20.
EndNote Kılcı EN (01 Ocak 2021) Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz. Sosyoekonomi 29 47 407–429.
IEEE E. N. Kılcı, “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 29, sy. 47, ss. 407–429, 2021, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20.
ISNAD Kılcı, Esra N. “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz”. Sosyoekonomi 29/47 (Ocak 2021), 407-429. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20.
JAMA Kılcı EN. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29:407–429.
MLA Kılcı, Esra N. “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 29, sy. 47, 2021, ss. 407-29, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.20.
Vancouver Kılcı EN. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Optimal Rezerv Düzeyini Değerlendirmeye Yönelik Yeni Göstergeler: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29(47):407-29.