Göç - Ticaret İlişkisi: Panel Çekim Modeli

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 15, - , 01.09.2011

Kadir Karagöz

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’den diğer ülkelere giden göçmen miktarının bu ülkelerle Türkiye arasındaki ticaret hacmini etkileyip etkilemediğini, bir etkileşim varsa eğer bunun yönünü belirlemek amaçlanmaktadır. Bunun için 2000 – 2005 dönemine ait panel veri setine dayalı genişletilmiş çekim modeli kullanılmaktadır. Çekim modeli iktisat literatüründe göç, turizm ve ticaret gibi birçok akım değişkeninin davranışını açıklamada başarı ile kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada ikili ticaret miktarı (ithalat ve ihracat) bağımlı değişken olmak üzere, göçmen miktarı, partner ülkenin ekonomik büyüklüğü, ülkenin uzaklığı ve nüfusu ikili ticaret miktarını açıklamak üzere kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular Türkiye örneğinde göç ile ticaret arasında pozitif ve güçlü bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Kaynakça

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