Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Politik İstikrarın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 17, - , 01.06.2012

Timur Gür Hale Akbulut

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Politik Makroekonomi literatüründen hareketle, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politik istikrarın ekonomik büyüme üzerine olan etkisi, konu ile ilgili tartışmaların nispeten daha yoğun tartışıldığı 1986 ile 2003 arası döneme ait veri seti kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Panel veri analizi yapılan bu sorgulamada, konu ile ilgili literatürde sıklıkla elde edilen ekonomik büyüme ve makroekonomik performans üzerinde politik istikrarın pozitif rol oynadığı sonucu teyit edilmiştir. Panel veri analizinden elde edilen diğer bir bulgu ise veri seti içerisinde yer alan 19 gelişmekte olan ülke temelinde, tahmin edilen ülke etki katsayılarının çoğu Asya ülkeleri için genellikle pozitif, buna karşılık Latin Amerika ülkeleri için negatif bulunmasıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

-

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D. ve A.J. Robinson (2002), “The Political Economy of the Kuznets Curve”, Review of Development Economics, 6(2), 183–203.
• Acemoglu, D. ve A.J. Robinson (2006), “ Economic Backwardness in Political Pespective”, American Political Science Review, 100(1), 115–131.
• Alesina, A. (1987), “ Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(3), 651–678.
• Alesina, A. (1988), “ Macroeconomics and Politics”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 3,13–62.
• Alesina, A. (1989), “Politics and Business Cycles in Industrial Democracies”, Economic Policy, 4(8), 55–98.
• Asteriou, D. ve S. Price (2001), “ Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383–399.
• Ball, R. ve G. Rausser (1995), “ Governance Structures and the Durability of Economic Reforms: Evidence from Inflation Stabilizations”, World Development, 23(6), 897–912.
• Berument, H. ve J.C. Heckelman (2005), “Fractionalization Effect and Government Financing”, International Journal of Applied Economics, 2, 37–49.
• Downs, A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York: Harper and Row.
• Edwards, S. (1994), “The Political Economy of Inflation and Stabilization in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42, 235–66.
• Edwards, S. ve G. Tabellini (1991), “Political Instability Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis”, NBER Working Paper, 3721, 1–30.
• Erol, M. (2001), “Sosyal Entropinin Verimlilik Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 2(1), 127–143.
• Feng, Y. (2001), “Political Freedom, Political Instability and Policy Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries”, International Studies Quarterly, 45, 271–294.
• Frey, B.S. ve F. Schneider (1978), “A Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom”, The Economic Journal, 88, 243–253.
• Friedman, M. (1977), “Inflation and Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451–72.
• Gordon, P. ve L. Wang (2004), “Does Economic Performance Correlate with Big Government?”, Econ Journal Watch, 1(2), 192–221.
• Greene, W.H. (2003), Econometric Analysis, 5.Ed., Prentice Hall Inc., Mcmillan, New York.
• Günalp, B. ve T.H. Gür (2002), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, METU Studies in Development, 29(3–4), 311–32.
• Hibbs, D. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”, American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467–87.
• ICRG, International Country Risk Guide Political Risk Rating System, Political Risk Services Group.
• International Labor Organisation Database, <http://laborsta.ilo.org/>, 12.01.2009.
• International Monetary Fund Database, <http://www.imfstatistics.org/imf/about.asp>, 17.01.2009.
• Kuznets, S. (1955), “Economic Growth and Income Inequality”, American Economic Review, 65, 1–28.
• La Porta, R., F. Lopez, A. Shleifer ve R. Vishny (1998), “The Quality of Government”, Journal of Law Economics and Organization, 15, 222-279.
• Nordhaus, W. D. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle”, Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169–190.
• Pehlivan H. (2009), Politik İstikrar ve Ekonomik Performans: Ampirik bir İnceleme, Hacettepe Üniversitesi, İktisat Bölümü Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Danışman: Timur Han Gür.
• Rogoff, K. ve A. Sibert (1988), “Equilibrium Political Business Cycles”, Review of Economic Studies, 55, 1–16.
• Sakamoto, T. (2005), “Economic performance of “weak” governments and their interaction with central banks and labour: Deficit, economic growth, uneployment and inflation, 1961–1998”, European Journal of Economic Research, (44), 801–36.
• Sierman C.L.J. (1998), Politics, Institutions and the Economic Performance of Nations, Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
• Tosun U., C. Güran ve A. Ulucan (2008), “The political instability, investment profile and the macroeconomic performance of the Middle East&North Africa (MENA) region”, Problems and Perspectives in Management, 6(2), 31-8.
• Ulusoy, A. ve A. Zengin (1998), “Türkiye’de Kamu Ekonomisi ve Mali Kriz”, XII. Türkiye Maliye Sempozyumu Bildiri Kitabı, İ.Ü. Maliye Bölümü Yayınları, 83.
• World Bank Database, <http://econ.worldbank.org>, 22.10.2008.