Ödemeler Bilançosu Aşamaları Hipotezi: Parametrik Olmayan Bir Yaklaşım

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 20, - , 01.09.2013

Serkan Erkam Mustafa Tosun

Öz

Bu çalışmada ödemeler bilançolarına ilişkin oldukça eski bir hipotez ele alınmaktadır. Literatürde ödemeler bilançosu aşamaları hipotezi olarak adlandırılan bu teoriye göre, ülkelerin ödemeler bilançolarının uzun dönemde belirli aşamaları izlemektedir. Söz konusu aşamaları belirleyen faktör ise ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyidir. Önceki deneye dayalı çalışmaların bir bölümü ödemeler bilançosu aşamaları ile iktisadi gelişmişlik düzeyi arasındaki doğrusal ilişkiyi kısmen doğrulamaktadır. Bu çerçevede, daha önce kullanılan parametrik olmayan bir rassallık testi yardımıyla ödemeler bilançosu aşamaları hipotezinin geçerliliği Türkiye için test edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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