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Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 27, 11 - 24, 22.01.2016
https://doi.org/10.17233/se.24616

Öz

Döviz kuru oynaklığı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki ilgi uyandıran araştırma konularındandır. Döviz kuru oynaklığı, yatırımı ve bununla bağlantılı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl şekillendirmektedir? Literatürde bu soruya cevap arayan çok sayıda çalışma mevcuttur. Çalışmada bu soruya reel döviz kuru oynaklığının Türkiye’de çıktı üzerindeki etkileri üzerinden cevap aranmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin reel gayri safi yurt içi hasılası (RG) üzerinde tüketici fiyat endeksi(TÜFE), gayri safi sabit sermaye oluşumu (SSO), doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımı (DYSY) ve döviz kuru oynaklığı (OYN) etkileri 1998:Ç1 den 2014:Ç3’e kadar üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımına göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin var olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. TÜFE ve SSO değişkenleri RG üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahipken, DYSY değişkeninin katsayısı da pozitiftir fakat anlamlı değildir. OYN değişkeni RG üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de reel döviz kurunda yaşanan dalgalanmaların çıktı üzerinde olumsuz etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Aitken, B.J. & A.E. Harrison (1999), “Do Domestic Firms Benefit From Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela”, American Economic Review, 82: 605-618.
  • Aghion, P. & P. Bacchetta & R. Ranciere & K. Rogoff (2009), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56: 494-513.
  • Ahmad, A. & N. Ahmad & S. Ali (2013), “Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Pakistan (1975-2011), MPRA Paper No. 49395: 740-746.
  • Ahmad, N. & M. Luqman (2012), “A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Inflation, Investment, Population Growth, Export and Economic Growth in Pakistan”, Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 2(8): 175-182.
  • Ahmad, N. & M.F. Hayat & M. Luqman & S. Ullah (2012a), “The Casual Links between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan”, European Journal of Business and Economics, 6: 20-21.
  • Ahmad, N. & M. Luqman & M.F. Hayat (2012b), “The Importance of Investment for Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan”, Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 4(4): 680-684.
  • Ahmad, N. & U.T.S. Joyia (2012), “The Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Econometric Approach”, Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 2(9): 38-48.
  • Aizenman, J. (1992), “Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Investment”, IMF Staff Papers, 890-922.
  • Akay, H.K. & M. Nargeleçekenler (2006), “Finansal Piyasa Volatilitesi ve Ekonomi”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 61(4): 5-32.
  • Azid, T. & M. Jamil & A. Kousar (2005), “Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Growth and Economic Performance: A Case Study of Pakistan, 1973-2003”, The Pakistan Development Review, 44(4): 749-775.
  • Barro, R.J. (1995), “Inflation and Economic Growth”, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper No. 5326:1-38.
  • Bollerslev, T. (1986), “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity”, Journal of Econometrics, 31: 307-327.
  • Bruno, M. & W. Easterly (1998), “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41: 3-26.
  • Campa, J. & L.S. Goldberg (1993), “Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange Rates and External Exposure”, NBER Working Paper, No.4378.
  • Campa, J. & L.S. Goldberg (1995), “Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange Rates and External Exposure”, Journal of International Economics, 38(3-4): 297-320.
  • Carkovic, M. & R. Levine (2002), “Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth?”, Social Science Research Network, 1-23.
  • Carkovic, M. & R. Levine (2005), “Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth?” in: Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?, eds. Theodore H. Moran & Edward D. Graham & Magnus Blomström, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics : 195-220.
  • Chen, J. (2012), “Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provicial Data (1992-2008), Paris School of Economics Working Paper No: 2012-05: 1-27.
  • Cheung, Y.W. & K.S. Lai (1998), “Economic Growth and Stationarity of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Some Fast-Growing Asian Countries”, Pasific Basin Finance Journal, 6: 61-76.
  • Değerli, A. & S. Fendoğlu (2013), “Döviz Kuru Beklentileri ve TCMB Para Politikası”, S. 2013-02, TCMB Ekonomi Notları.
  • Dornbush, R. (2001), “Fewer Monies Better Monies”, NBER Working Paper, No.8324:1-12.
  • Eichengreen, B. (2007), “The Exchange Rate and Economic Growth”, Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper No. 4.
  • Ermişoğlu, E. & A. Oduncu & Y. Akçelik (2013), “Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması ve Kur Oynaklığı”, S. 2013-04, TCMB Ekonomi Notları.
  • Ghosh, A. & S. Phillips (1998), “Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful”, International Monetary Fund, 45(4): 662-710.
  • Güloğlu, B. & A. Akman (2007), “Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının SWARCH Yöntemi İle Analizi”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44(512): 43-51.
  • He, Q. (2010), “Expanding Varieties in the Nontraded Goods Sector and the Real Exchange Rate Depreciation”, Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 3(2): 19-38.
  • Huybens, E. & B.D. Smith (1999), “Inflation, Financial Markets and Long Run Real Activity”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(2): 283-315.
  • Javed, H.Z. & M. Farooq (2009), “Economic Growth and Exchange Volatility in Case of Pakistan”, Pakistan Journal of Life and Social Sciences, 7(2): 112-118.
  • Khaliq, A. & I. Noy (2007), “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sectoral Data in Indonesia”, Indonesia Journal and Review, 01-27.
  • Kogid, M. & R. Asid & J. Lily & D. Mulok &N. Loganathan (2012), “The Effect of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Empirical Testing on Nominal Versus Real”, IUP Journal of Financial Economics, 10(1): 7-17.
  • Miles, W. (2006), “To Float or Not To Float? Currency Regimes and Growth”, Journal of Economic Development, 31 (2): 91-105.
  • Mahmood, I. & E. Major (2011), “Macroeconomic Variables and FDI in Pakistan”, European Journal of Scientific Research, 55(3): 388-393.
  • Mubarik, Y.A. (2005), “Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan”, SBP Research Bulletin, 1(1): 35-44.
  • Mughal, F.A. & N. Aslam & M.A. Jabbar & W. Ullah (2012), “Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth, Are They Related? A Study on South East Asian Economies 1960-2010”, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(6): 6108-6114.
  • Musyoki, D. & G. Pokharial & M. Pundo (2012), “The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Kenyan Evidence”, Business and Economic Horizons, 7(1): 59-75.
  • Naseer, S. & F. Abbasi & M.M. Far (2012), “Any Relations between Nominal Interest Rate and Inflation Rate Upon Fisher Effect”, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(4), 4000-4007.
  • Quartey, P. (2010), “Price Stability and the Growth Maximizing Rate of Inflation for Ghana”, Scientific Research Journal, 1(3): 180-194.
  • Pesaran, M.H. & Y. Shin (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Econometrics and Economic Theory in The 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H. &Y. Shin & R.J. Smith (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326.
  • Rodrik, D. (2008), “The Exchange Rate and Economic Growth”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 365-412.
  • Shahzad, H. & S. Malik (2011), “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5): 262-276.
  • Vieira, F.V. & M. Holland & C. Gomes de Silva & L.C. Bottecchia (2013), “Growth and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel Data Analysis”, Applied Economics, 45(26): 3733-3741.
  • Tarawalie, A.B. (2010), “Real Exchange Rate Behaviour and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sierra Leone”, South African Journal of Economic Management Sciences, 13(1): 8-23.

Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 27, 11 - 24, 22.01.2016
https://doi.org/10.17233/se.24616

Öz

Döviz kuru oynaklığı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki ilgi uyandıran araştırma konularındandır. Döviz kuru oynaklığı, yatırımı ve bununla bağlantılı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl şekillendirmektedir? Literatürde bu soruya cevap arayan çok sayıda çalışma mevcuttur. Çalışmada bu soruya reel döviz kuru oynaklığının Türkiye’de çıktı üzerindeki etkileri üzerinden cevap aranmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin reel gayri safi yurt içi hasılası (RG) üzerinde tüketici fiyat endeksi(TÜFE), gayri safi sabit sermaye oluşumu (SSO), doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımı (DYSY) ve döviz kuru oynaklığı (OYN) etkileri 1998:Ç1 den 2014:Ç3’e kadar üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımına göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin var olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. TÜFE ve SSO değişkenleri RG üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahipken, DYSY değişkeninin katsayısı da pozitiftir fakat anlamlı değildir. OYN değişkeni RG üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de reel döviz kurunda yaşanan dalgalanmaların çıktı üzerinde olumsuz etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir .

Kaynakça

  • Aitken, B.J. & A.E. Harrison (1999), “Do Domestic Firms Benefit From Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela”, American Economic Review, 82: 605-618.
  • Aghion, P. & P. Bacchetta & R. Ranciere & K. Rogoff (2009), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56: 494-513.
  • Ahmad, A. & N. Ahmad & S. Ali (2013), “Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Pakistan (1975-2011), MPRA Paper No. 49395: 740-746.
  • Ahmad, N. & M. Luqman (2012), “A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Inflation, Investment, Population Growth, Export and Economic Growth in Pakistan”, Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 2(8): 175-182.
  • Ahmad, N. & M.F. Hayat & M. Luqman & S. Ullah (2012a), “The Casual Links between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan”, European Journal of Business and Economics, 6: 20-21.
  • Ahmad, N. & M. Luqman & M.F. Hayat (2012b), “The Importance of Investment for Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan”, Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 4(4): 680-684.
  • Ahmad, N. & U.T.S. Joyia (2012), “The Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Econometric Approach”, Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 2(9): 38-48.
  • Aizenman, J. (1992), “Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Investment”, IMF Staff Papers, 890-922.
  • Akay, H.K. & M. Nargeleçekenler (2006), “Finansal Piyasa Volatilitesi ve Ekonomi”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 61(4): 5-32.
  • Azid, T. & M. Jamil & A. Kousar (2005), “Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Growth and Economic Performance: A Case Study of Pakistan, 1973-2003”, The Pakistan Development Review, 44(4): 749-775.
  • Barro, R.J. (1995), “Inflation and Economic Growth”, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper No. 5326:1-38.
  • Bollerslev, T. (1986), “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity”, Journal of Econometrics, 31: 307-327.
  • Bruno, M. & W. Easterly (1998), “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41: 3-26.
  • Campa, J. & L.S. Goldberg (1993), “Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange Rates and External Exposure”, NBER Working Paper, No.4378.
  • Campa, J. & L.S. Goldberg (1995), “Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange Rates and External Exposure”, Journal of International Economics, 38(3-4): 297-320.
  • Carkovic, M. & R. Levine (2002), “Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth?”, Social Science Research Network, 1-23.
  • Carkovic, M. & R. Levine (2005), “Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth?” in: Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?, eds. Theodore H. Moran & Edward D. Graham & Magnus Blomström, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics : 195-220.
  • Chen, J. (2012), “Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provicial Data (1992-2008), Paris School of Economics Working Paper No: 2012-05: 1-27.
  • Cheung, Y.W. & K.S. Lai (1998), “Economic Growth and Stationarity of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Some Fast-Growing Asian Countries”, Pasific Basin Finance Journal, 6: 61-76.
  • Değerli, A. & S. Fendoğlu (2013), “Döviz Kuru Beklentileri ve TCMB Para Politikası”, S. 2013-02, TCMB Ekonomi Notları.
  • Dornbush, R. (2001), “Fewer Monies Better Monies”, NBER Working Paper, No.8324:1-12.
  • Eichengreen, B. (2007), “The Exchange Rate and Economic Growth”, Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper No. 4.
  • Ermişoğlu, E. & A. Oduncu & Y. Akçelik (2013), “Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması ve Kur Oynaklığı”, S. 2013-04, TCMB Ekonomi Notları.
  • Ghosh, A. & S. Phillips (1998), “Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful”, International Monetary Fund, 45(4): 662-710.
  • Güloğlu, B. & A. Akman (2007), “Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının SWARCH Yöntemi İle Analizi”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44(512): 43-51.
  • He, Q. (2010), “Expanding Varieties in the Nontraded Goods Sector and the Real Exchange Rate Depreciation”, Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 3(2): 19-38.
  • Huybens, E. & B.D. Smith (1999), “Inflation, Financial Markets and Long Run Real Activity”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(2): 283-315.
  • Javed, H.Z. & M. Farooq (2009), “Economic Growth and Exchange Volatility in Case of Pakistan”, Pakistan Journal of Life and Social Sciences, 7(2): 112-118.
  • Khaliq, A. & I. Noy (2007), “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sectoral Data in Indonesia”, Indonesia Journal and Review, 01-27.
  • Kogid, M. & R. Asid & J. Lily & D. Mulok &N. Loganathan (2012), “The Effect of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Empirical Testing on Nominal Versus Real”, IUP Journal of Financial Economics, 10(1): 7-17.
  • Miles, W. (2006), “To Float or Not To Float? Currency Regimes and Growth”, Journal of Economic Development, 31 (2): 91-105.
  • Mahmood, I. & E. Major (2011), “Macroeconomic Variables and FDI in Pakistan”, European Journal of Scientific Research, 55(3): 388-393.
  • Mubarik, Y.A. (2005), “Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan”, SBP Research Bulletin, 1(1): 35-44.
  • Mughal, F.A. & N. Aslam & M.A. Jabbar & W. Ullah (2012), “Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth, Are They Related? A Study on South East Asian Economies 1960-2010”, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(6): 6108-6114.
  • Musyoki, D. & G. Pokharial & M. Pundo (2012), “The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Kenyan Evidence”, Business and Economic Horizons, 7(1): 59-75.
  • Naseer, S. & F. Abbasi & M.M. Far (2012), “Any Relations between Nominal Interest Rate and Inflation Rate Upon Fisher Effect”, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(4), 4000-4007.
  • Quartey, P. (2010), “Price Stability and the Growth Maximizing Rate of Inflation for Ghana”, Scientific Research Journal, 1(3): 180-194.
  • Pesaran, M.H. & Y. Shin (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Econometrics and Economic Theory in The 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H. &Y. Shin & R.J. Smith (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326.
  • Rodrik, D. (2008), “The Exchange Rate and Economic Growth”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 365-412.
  • Shahzad, H. & S. Malik (2011), “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5): 262-276.
  • Vieira, F.V. & M. Holland & C. Gomes de Silva & L.C. Bottecchia (2013), “Growth and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel Data Analysis”, Applied Economics, 45(26): 3733-3741.
  • Tarawalie, A.B. (2010), “Real Exchange Rate Behaviour and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sierra Leone”, South African Journal of Economic Management Sciences, 13(1): 8-23.
Toplam 43 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Hidayet Ünlü

Yayımlanma Tarihi 22 Ocak 2016
Gönderilme Tarihi 21 Aralık 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2016 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 27

Kaynak Göster

APA Ünlü, H. (2016). Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), 11-24. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.24616
AMA Ünlü H. Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi. Ocak 2016;24(27):11-24. doi:10.17233/se.24616
Chicago Ünlü, Hidayet. “Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği”. Sosyoekonomi 24, sy. 27 (Ocak 2016): 11-24. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.24616.
EndNote Ünlü H (01 Ocak 2016) Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi 24 27 11–24.
IEEE H. Ünlü, “Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 24, sy. 27, ss. 11–24, 2016, doi: 10.17233/se.24616.
ISNAD Ünlü, Hidayet. “Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği”. Sosyoekonomi 24/27 (Ocak 2016), 11-24. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.24616.
JAMA Ünlü H. Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi. 2016;24:11–24.
MLA Ünlü, Hidayet. “Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 24, sy. 27, 2016, ss. 11-24, doi:10.17233/se.24616.
Vancouver Ünlü H. Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi. 2016;24(27):11-24.