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The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 33, 103 - 126, 31.07.2017

Serdar Varlık

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476
Cited By: 3

Öz

In this study covering the period of January 2004-June 2015 for Turkish economy, using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, the effects of sovereign risk premium shocks on banking system soundness are investigated. According to the results of impulse response analyses, against to one standard deviation structural shock in sovereign risk premium; (i) Turkish Lira (TL) depreciates, financial stock prices declines, interbank overnight interest rate goes up, banking system soundness index (BSI) declines and eventually credit-deposit interest rate spread increases. However, (ii) credit-deposit interest rate spread responses to sovereign risk premium shock longer time than other variables do. This evidence exhibits that the balance sheet structure of banking sector is strong against to sovereign risk premium shock and banking sector reflects the negative effects of shock to real economy via increasing credit-deposit interest rate spread. The results of impulse response analysis are supported by the evidences of variance decomposition.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Banking Sector Soundness Index Sovereign Risk Premium SVAR

Kaynakça

  • Agénor, P.R. & L.A. Preira da Silva (2013), “Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World”, Banco Central Do Brasil Working Papers, 324. 1-117.
  • Akkaya, Y. & S.R. Gürkaynak (2012), “Current Account Deficit, Budget Balance, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Reflections on a Gripping Episode”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 27 (315), 93–119.
  • Allegret, J.P. & A. Sand (2009), “Modeling The Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of The Exchange Rate Regime”, Open Economies Review, 20(3), 359-384.
  • Alper, C.E. & O. Torul (2008), “Oil Prices, Aggregate Economic Activity and Global Liquidity Conditions: Evidence FromTurkey”, Economics Bulletin, 17(4), 1-8.
  • Angbanzo, L. (1997), “Commercial Bank Net Interest Margins, Default Risk, Interest Rate Risk and Off-Balance Sheet Banking”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 21(1), 55-87.
  • Aslaner, O. & U. Çıplak & A.H. Kara & D. Küçüksaraç (2014), “Reserve Option Mechanism: Does it Work as an Automatic Stabilizer?”, CBRT Working Paper, 14/38, 1-16.
  • Aysan, A. & C.H. Dalgıç & M. Demirci (2010), “Macroeconomic, Sector Specific and Bank Specific Determinants of Net Interest Rate Margin: What Matters More for an Emerging Market Economy?”, EcoMod, 259600015, <http://www.ecomod.net/sites/default/files/document-conference/ecomod2010/1254.pdf>, 24.10.2015.
  • Baldacci, E. & S. Gupta & A. Mati (2008), “Is It (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, IMF Working Paper, 08/259, 1-23.
  • Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) (2004), Bankacılık Sektörü Değerlendirme Raporu, Ekim, Ankara, <https://www.bddk.org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Raporlar/Finansal_Piyasalar_Raporlari/1497Bankacilik_Sektoru_Degerlendirme_Raporu_Ekim_%202004.pdf >, 27.09.2013.
  • Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) (2010), Finansal Piyasalar Raporu, No. 20, Aralık, Ankara, <http://www.bddk.org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Raporlar/Finansal_Piyasalar_Raporlari/9433fpr_aralik_2010.pdf >, 12.11.2013.
  • Başçı, E. & Ö. Özel & Ç. Sarıkaya (2007), “The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: New Developments”, CBRT Working Paper, 07/04, 1-28.
  • Başçı, E. & A.H. Kara (2011), “Financial Stability and Monetary Policy”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26 (302), 9–25.
  • Başçı, E. & Ö. Özel & Ç.Sarıkaya (2007), “The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: New Developments”, CBRT Working Paper, 07/04, 1-28.
  • Başçı, E. (2015), Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası 83. Olağan Genel Kurul Toplantısı, Nisan, Ankara, <,http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-turkey-2014_eco_surveys-tur-2014-en> 25.05.2015.
  • Beck, R. (2001), “Do Country Fundamentals Explain Emerging Market Bond Spreads?”, CFS Working Paper, 02, 1-32.
  • Bellas, D. & M.G. Papaioannou & I. Petrova (2010), “Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress”, IMF Working Paper, 10/281, 1-23.
  • Bernanke, B.S. (1986), “Alternative Explanations of the MoneyIncome Correlation”, NBER Working Paper, 1842, 1-62.
  • Berument, H. (2007), “Measuring Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy: Turkey”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(2), 411-430.
  • Binici, M. & H. Erol & A.H. Kara & P. Özlü & D. Ünalmış (2013), “Faiz Koridoru bir Makro İhtiyati Araç Olabilir mi?”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, 2013/20, 1-16.
  • Blanchard, O. (2004), “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons From Brazil”, NBER Working Paper,10389, 1-46.
  • Borensztein, E. & J. Zettelmeyer & T. Philippon (2001), “Monetary Independence in Emerging Markets: Does The Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference?”, IMF Working Paper, 01/01, 1-49.
  • Burstein, A. & M. Eichenbaum & S. Rebelo (2005), “Large Devaluations and The Real Exchange Rate”, Journal of Political Economy, 113(4), 742-784.
  • Calvo, A.G. (2002), “Globalization Hazard and Development Reform in Emerging Markets”, Economia, 2, 1-29. Campbell, J.Y. (1998), “Asset Prices, Consumption, and the Business Cycle”, NBER Working Paper, 6485, 1-111.
  • Carare, A. & A. Popescu (2011), “Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR”, IMF Working Paper, 11/259, 1-49.
  • Castro, C. & J. Mencia (2014), “Sovereign Risk and Financial Stability”, Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, 26, 73-107.
  • Cheikh, A.G. & N.R.SY. Amadou (2013), “U.S. Interest Rates and Emerging Market Bond Yield Spreads: A Changing Relationship?”, The Journal of Fixed Income, 22(4), 48-52.
  • Choi, S. (2015), “The Impact of VIX Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: A Flight to Quality Mechanism”, <http://www.econ.ucla.edu/jobmarket/2014/ChoiPaper.pdf>, 22.09.2015.
  • Christiano, L.J. & M. Eichenbaum (1992), “Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations”, The American Economic Review, 82(3), 430-450.
  • Clarida, R. & J. Gali & M. Gertler (1998), “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence”, European Economic Review, 42, 1033-1067.
  • Cooley, T.F. & S.F. LeRoy (1985), “A Theoretical Macroeconometrics: a Critique”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(3), 283-308.
  • Cooper, J. (1983), “Factor Analysis: An Overview”, The American Statistician, 37(2), 141-147.
  • Curdia, V. & M. Woodford (2010), “Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 3-35.
  • Çulha, O.Y. & F. Özatay & G. Şahinbeyoğlu (2006), “The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, CBRT Working Paper, 06/04, 1-43.
  • Davies, M. & T. Ng (2011), “The Rise of Sovereign Credit Risk: Implications for Financial Stability”. BIS Quarterly Review, September, 59-70.
  • De Nicolò, G. & I. Ivaschenko (2009), “Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities”, IMF Working Paper, 09/52, 1-33.
  • Demirguc-Kunt, A. & H. Huizinga (1999), “Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence”, World Bank Economic Review, 13(2), 379-408.
  • Di Giovanni, J. & J.C. Shambaugh (2008), “The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on The Economy: The Role of The Exchange Rate Regime”, Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 341-361.
  • Doan, T. & R. Litterman & C. Sims (1984), “Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions”, Econometric Reviews, 3, 1-100.
  • Doğru, C. (2011), “Karlılığın Belirleyicileri Analizi: Teori ve Orta Ölçekli Bir Banka Uygulaması”, Maliye Finans Yazıları, 25(91), 47-75.
  • Enders, W. (1995), Applied Economic Time Series, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Erol, H. (2007), “Bankalarda Net Faiz Marjının Belirleyicileri, Risk Duyarlılığı ve Politika Önerileri”, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, <http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/kutuphane/TURKCE/tezler/hasanerol.pdf>, 11.12.2014.
  • Ersel, H. & F. Özatay (2008), “Fiscal Dominance and InflationTargeting: Lessons from Turkey”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 38-51.
  • Favero, C.A. & F. Giavazzi (2004), “Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil”, NBER Working Paper, 10390,1-23.
  • Ferrucci, G. (2003), “Empirical Determinants of Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign Bond Spreads”, Bank of England Working Paper, 205, 1-42.
  • Fouejieu, A. & S. Roger (2013), “Inflation Targeting and Country Risk: An Empirical Investigation”, IMF Working Paper, 13/21, 1-30.
  • Fracasso, A. (2007), “The Role of Foreign and Domestic Factors in The Evolution of The Brazilian EMBI Spread and Debt Dynamics”, HEI Working Paper, 22/2007, 1-61.
  • Fraga, A. & I. Goldfajn & A. Minella (2003), “Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies”, NBER Working Paper, 10019, 1-50.
  • Gadanecz, B. & A. Mehrotra (2013), “The Exchange Rate, Real Economy and Financial Markets”, BIS Working Paper, 73, 11-23.
  • Gali, J. & T. Monacelli (2005), “Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy”, The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 707-734.
  • Galindo, A.J. & A. Izquierdo & L. Rojas-Suárez (2010), “Financial Integration and Foreign Banks in Latin America: How Do They Impact The Transmission of External Financial Shocks?”, IDB Working Paper Series, IDB-WP-116, 1-36.
  • Garcia-Herrero, A. & A. Ortiz (2006), “The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads”, Economia, 7(1), 125-148.
  • Gertler, M. & S. Gilchrist & F. Natalucci (2007), “External Constraints on Monetary Policy and The Financial Accelerator”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(2-3), 295-330.
  • Goldfajn, I. & G. Olivares (2001), “Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama”, Economia, 1(2), 3-29.
  • González‐Rozada, M. & E. Levy-Yeyati (2008), “Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads”, The Economic Journal, 118(533), 1917-1936.
  • Hair, J.F. & W.C. Black & B.J. Babin & R.E. Anderson & R.L. Tatham (2006), Multivariate Data Analysis, 6 th Edition, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Prentice Hall.
  • Harris, E.S. & B.C. Kasman & M. D. Shapiro & K.D. West (2009), “Oil and The Macroeconomy: Lessons for Monetary Policy”, US Monetary Policy Forum Report, <http://research.chicagobooth.edu/igm/docs/2009USMPFReport.pdf>, 23.11.2015.
  • Hausmann, R. & U. Panizza & R. Rigobon (2006), “The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of The Real Exchange Rate”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(1), 93-124.
  • Ho, T.S. & A. Saunders (1981), “The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: Theory and Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 16(04), 581-600.
  • Illing, G. (2004), “How to Escape Contagion in The Interest Rate Trap”, Second Conference of the Monetary Stability Foundation: Financial Stability and Globalisation, <http://www.en.sfm.econ.unimuenchen.de/research/archiv_publikationen/contagion.pdf>, 08.06.2015.
  • International Monetary Found (IMF) (2006), Financial Soundness Indicators, <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fsi/guide/2006/index.htm>, 25.03.2014.
  • Izquirdo, A. & R. Romero & E. Talvi (2008), “Boom and Business Cycles in Latin America: The Role of External Factors”, IDB Working Paper, IDB-WP-631, 1-31.
  • Jin, Z. (2003), “The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and The Balance of Payments in China: 1980-2002”, IMF Working Paper, 03/67, 1-28.
  • Kaminsky, G. & S. Schmukler (2002), “Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?”, The World Bank Economic Review, 16(2), 171-195.
  • Kara, A.H. (2006), “Turkish Experience with Implicit InflationTargeting”, CBRT Working Paper, 06/03, 1-17.
  • Kara, A.H. (2012), “Monetary Policy in the Post-Crises Period”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 27 (315), 9-36.
  • Kaya, Y.T. (2001), “Türk Bankacılık Sisteminde Net Faiz Marjının Modellenmesi”, BDDK Mali Sektör Politikası Dairesi Çalışma Raporları, 4.

Ülke Risk Primi Şokunun Bankacılık Sisteminin Sağlamlığına Etkisi: SVAR Modeli Çerçevesinde Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 33, 103 - 126, 31.07.2017

Serdar Varlık

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476
Cited By: 3

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisi için Ocak 2004-Haziran 2015 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmada, yapısal vektör otoregresyon (SVAR) modeli kullanılarak, ülke risk primi şoklarının bankacılık sisteminin sağlamlığı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektir. Etki-tepki analizinin sonuçlarına göre ülke risk primindeki bir standart sapma yapısal şok karşısında (i) Türk Lirası (TL) değer kaybetmekte, finansal hisse senedi fiyatları düşmekte, bankalar arası para piyasası gecelik faiz oranı yükselmekte, bankacılık sağlamlık endeksi (BSI) düşmekte ve sonuçta kredi mevduat faiz farkı yükselmektedir. Ancak, (ii) kredi-mevduat faiz farkı ülke risk primi şokuna diğer değişkenlerden daha uzun süre tepki vermektedir. Bu bulgu bankacılık sektörünün bilânço yapısının ülke risk primi şoku karşısında güçlü olduğunu ve bankacılık sektörünün şokun olumsuz etkilerini artan kredi-mevduat faiz farkı aracılığıyla reel ekonomiye yansıttığını ortaya koymaktadır. Etki-tepki analizinin sonuçları varyans ayrıştırması bulguları tarafından desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bankacılık Sağlamlık Endeksi Ülke Risk Primi SVAR

Kaynakça

  • Agénor, P.R. & L.A. Preira da Silva (2013), “Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World”, Banco Central Do Brasil Working Papers, 324. 1-117.
  • Akkaya, Y. & S.R. Gürkaynak (2012), “Current Account Deficit, Budget Balance, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Reflections on a Gripping Episode”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 27 (315), 93–119.
  • Allegret, J.P. & A. Sand (2009), “Modeling The Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of The Exchange Rate Regime”, Open Economies Review, 20(3), 359-384.
  • Alper, C.E. & O. Torul (2008), “Oil Prices, Aggregate Economic Activity and Global Liquidity Conditions: Evidence FromTurkey”, Economics Bulletin, 17(4), 1-8.
  • Angbanzo, L. (1997), “Commercial Bank Net Interest Margins, Default Risk, Interest Rate Risk and Off-Balance Sheet Banking”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 21(1), 55-87.
  • Aslaner, O. & U. Çıplak & A.H. Kara & D. Küçüksaraç (2014), “Reserve Option Mechanism: Does it Work as an Automatic Stabilizer?”, CBRT Working Paper, 14/38, 1-16.
  • Aysan, A. & C.H. Dalgıç & M. Demirci (2010), “Macroeconomic, Sector Specific and Bank Specific Determinants of Net Interest Rate Margin: What Matters More for an Emerging Market Economy?”, EcoMod, 259600015, <http://www.ecomod.net/sites/default/files/document-conference/ecomod2010/1254.pdf>, 24.10.2015.
  • Baldacci, E. & S. Gupta & A. Mati (2008), “Is It (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, IMF Working Paper, 08/259, 1-23.
  • Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) (2004), Bankacılık Sektörü Değerlendirme Raporu, Ekim, Ankara, <https://www.bddk.org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Raporlar/Finansal_Piyasalar_Raporlari/1497Bankacilik_Sektoru_Degerlendirme_Raporu_Ekim_%202004.pdf >, 27.09.2013.
  • Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) (2010), Finansal Piyasalar Raporu, No. 20, Aralık, Ankara, <http://www.bddk.org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Raporlar/Finansal_Piyasalar_Raporlari/9433fpr_aralik_2010.pdf >, 12.11.2013.
  • Başçı, E. & Ö. Özel & Ç. Sarıkaya (2007), “The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: New Developments”, CBRT Working Paper, 07/04, 1-28.
  • Başçı, E. & A.H. Kara (2011), “Financial Stability and Monetary Policy”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26 (302), 9–25.
  • Başçı, E. & Ö. Özel & Ç.Sarıkaya (2007), “The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: New Developments”, CBRT Working Paper, 07/04, 1-28.
  • Başçı, E. (2015), Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası 83. Olağan Genel Kurul Toplantısı, Nisan, Ankara, <,http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-turkey-2014_eco_surveys-tur-2014-en> 25.05.2015.
  • Beck, R. (2001), “Do Country Fundamentals Explain Emerging Market Bond Spreads?”, CFS Working Paper, 02, 1-32.
  • Bellas, D. & M.G. Papaioannou & I. Petrova (2010), “Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress”, IMF Working Paper, 10/281, 1-23.
  • Bernanke, B.S. (1986), “Alternative Explanations of the MoneyIncome Correlation”, NBER Working Paper, 1842, 1-62.
  • Berument, H. (2007), “Measuring Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy: Turkey”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(2), 411-430.
  • Binici, M. & H. Erol & A.H. Kara & P. Özlü & D. Ünalmış (2013), “Faiz Koridoru bir Makro İhtiyati Araç Olabilir mi?”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, 2013/20, 1-16.
  • Blanchard, O. (2004), “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons From Brazil”, NBER Working Paper,10389, 1-46.
  • Borensztein, E. & J. Zettelmeyer & T. Philippon (2001), “Monetary Independence in Emerging Markets: Does The Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference?”, IMF Working Paper, 01/01, 1-49.
  • Burstein, A. & M. Eichenbaum & S. Rebelo (2005), “Large Devaluations and The Real Exchange Rate”, Journal of Political Economy, 113(4), 742-784.
  • Calvo, A.G. (2002), “Globalization Hazard and Development Reform in Emerging Markets”, Economia, 2, 1-29. Campbell, J.Y. (1998), “Asset Prices, Consumption, and the Business Cycle”, NBER Working Paper, 6485, 1-111.
  • Carare, A. & A. Popescu (2011), “Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR”, IMF Working Paper, 11/259, 1-49.
  • Castro, C. & J. Mencia (2014), “Sovereign Risk and Financial Stability”, Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, 26, 73-107.
  • Cheikh, A.G. & N.R.SY. Amadou (2013), “U.S. Interest Rates and Emerging Market Bond Yield Spreads: A Changing Relationship?”, The Journal of Fixed Income, 22(4), 48-52.
  • Choi, S. (2015), “The Impact of VIX Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: A Flight to Quality Mechanism”, <http://www.econ.ucla.edu/jobmarket/2014/ChoiPaper.pdf>, 22.09.2015.
  • Christiano, L.J. & M. Eichenbaum (1992), “Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations”, The American Economic Review, 82(3), 430-450.
  • Clarida, R. & J. Gali & M. Gertler (1998), “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence”, European Economic Review, 42, 1033-1067.
  • Cooley, T.F. & S.F. LeRoy (1985), “A Theoretical Macroeconometrics: a Critique”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(3), 283-308.
  • Cooper, J. (1983), “Factor Analysis: An Overview”, The American Statistician, 37(2), 141-147.
  • Curdia, V. & M. Woodford (2010), “Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 3-35.
  • Çulha, O.Y. & F. Özatay & G. Şahinbeyoğlu (2006), “The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets”, CBRT Working Paper, 06/04, 1-43.
  • Davies, M. & T. Ng (2011), “The Rise of Sovereign Credit Risk: Implications for Financial Stability”. BIS Quarterly Review, September, 59-70.
  • De Nicolò, G. & I. Ivaschenko (2009), “Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities”, IMF Working Paper, 09/52, 1-33.
  • Demirguc-Kunt, A. & H. Huizinga (1999), “Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence”, World Bank Economic Review, 13(2), 379-408.
  • Di Giovanni, J. & J.C. Shambaugh (2008), “The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on The Economy: The Role of The Exchange Rate Regime”, Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 341-361.
  • Doan, T. & R. Litterman & C. Sims (1984), “Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions”, Econometric Reviews, 3, 1-100.
  • Doğru, C. (2011), “Karlılığın Belirleyicileri Analizi: Teori ve Orta Ölçekli Bir Banka Uygulaması”, Maliye Finans Yazıları, 25(91), 47-75.
  • Enders, W. (1995), Applied Economic Time Series, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Erol, H. (2007), “Bankalarda Net Faiz Marjının Belirleyicileri, Risk Duyarlılığı ve Politika Önerileri”, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, <http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/kutuphane/TURKCE/tezler/hasanerol.pdf>, 11.12.2014.
  • Ersel, H. & F. Özatay (2008), “Fiscal Dominance and InflationTargeting: Lessons from Turkey”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 38-51.
  • Favero, C.A. & F. Giavazzi (2004), “Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil”, NBER Working Paper, 10390,1-23.
  • Ferrucci, G. (2003), “Empirical Determinants of Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign Bond Spreads”, Bank of England Working Paper, 205, 1-42.
  • Fouejieu, A. & S. Roger (2013), “Inflation Targeting and Country Risk: An Empirical Investigation”, IMF Working Paper, 13/21, 1-30.
  • Fracasso, A. (2007), “The Role of Foreign and Domestic Factors in The Evolution of The Brazilian EMBI Spread and Debt Dynamics”, HEI Working Paper, 22/2007, 1-61.
  • Fraga, A. & I. Goldfajn & A. Minella (2003), “Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies”, NBER Working Paper, 10019, 1-50.
  • Gadanecz, B. & A. Mehrotra (2013), “The Exchange Rate, Real Economy and Financial Markets”, BIS Working Paper, 73, 11-23.
  • Gali, J. & T. Monacelli (2005), “Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy”, The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 707-734.
  • Galindo, A.J. & A. Izquierdo & L. Rojas-Suárez (2010), “Financial Integration and Foreign Banks in Latin America: How Do They Impact The Transmission of External Financial Shocks?”, IDB Working Paper Series, IDB-WP-116, 1-36.
  • Garcia-Herrero, A. & A. Ortiz (2006), “The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads”, Economia, 7(1), 125-148.
  • Gertler, M. & S. Gilchrist & F. Natalucci (2007), “External Constraints on Monetary Policy and The Financial Accelerator”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(2-3), 295-330.
  • Goldfajn, I. & G. Olivares (2001), “Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama”, Economia, 1(2), 3-29.
  • González‐Rozada, M. & E. Levy-Yeyati (2008), “Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads”, The Economic Journal, 118(533), 1917-1936.
  • Hair, J.F. & W.C. Black & B.J. Babin & R.E. Anderson & R.L. Tatham (2006), Multivariate Data Analysis, 6 th Edition, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Prentice Hall.
  • Harris, E.S. & B.C. Kasman & M. D. Shapiro & K.D. West (2009), “Oil and The Macroeconomy: Lessons for Monetary Policy”, US Monetary Policy Forum Report, <http://research.chicagobooth.edu/igm/docs/2009USMPFReport.pdf>, 23.11.2015.
  • Hausmann, R. & U. Panizza & R. Rigobon (2006), “The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of The Real Exchange Rate”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(1), 93-124.
  • Ho, T.S. & A. Saunders (1981), “The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: Theory and Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 16(04), 581-600.
  • Illing, G. (2004), “How to Escape Contagion in The Interest Rate Trap”, Second Conference of the Monetary Stability Foundation: Financial Stability and Globalisation, <http://www.en.sfm.econ.unimuenchen.de/research/archiv_publikationen/contagion.pdf>, 08.06.2015.
  • International Monetary Found (IMF) (2006), Financial Soundness Indicators, <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fsi/guide/2006/index.htm>, 25.03.2014.
  • Izquirdo, A. & R. Romero & E. Talvi (2008), “Boom and Business Cycles in Latin America: The Role of External Factors”, IDB Working Paper, IDB-WP-631, 1-31.
  • Jin, Z. (2003), “The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and The Balance of Payments in China: 1980-2002”, IMF Working Paper, 03/67, 1-28.
  • Kaminsky, G. & S. Schmukler (2002), “Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?”, The World Bank Economic Review, 16(2), 171-195.
  • Kara, A.H. (2006), “Turkish Experience with Implicit InflationTargeting”, CBRT Working Paper, 06/03, 1-17.
  • Kara, A.H. (2012), “Monetary Policy in the Post-Crises Period”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 27 (315), 9-36.
  • Kaya, Y.T. (2001), “Türk Bankacılık Sisteminde Net Faiz Marjının Modellenmesi”, BDDK Mali Sektör Politikası Dairesi Çalışma Raporları, 4.
Toplam 65 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Serdar Varlık

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2017
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Şubat 2016
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 25 Sayı: 33

Kaynak Göster

APA Varlık, S. (2017). The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model. Sosyoekonomi, 25(33), 103-126. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476
AMA Varlık S. The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model. Sosyoekonomi. Temmuz 2017;25(33):103-126. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476
Chicago Varlık, Serdar. “The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model”. Sosyoekonomi 25, sy. 33 (Temmuz 2017): 103-26. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476.
EndNote Varlık S (01 Temmuz 2017) The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model. Sosyoekonomi 25 33 103–126.
IEEE S. Varlık, “The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 25, sy. 33, ss. 103–126, 2017, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476.
ISNAD Varlık, Serdar. “The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model”. Sosyoekonomi 25/33 (Temmuz 2017), 103-126. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476.
JAMA Varlık S. The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model. Sosyoekonomi. 2017;25:103–126.
MLA Varlık, Serdar. “The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 25, sy. 33, 2017, ss. 103-26, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.286476.
Vancouver Varlık S. The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock on Banking System Soundness: The Case of Turkey in the Framework of SVAR Model. Sosyoekonomi. 2017;25(33):103-26.

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