Çin Ekonomisi İçin Fisher Etkisinin Varlığının Analizi

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 35, 27 - 40, 31.01.2018

Utku Altunöz

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.378725

Cited By: 4

Öz

Ekonomi biliminde Fisher Etkisi, uzun dönemli faiz ile enflasyon ilişkisi olarak bilinmektedir. Fisher’e göre, uzun dönemde milli gelir tam istihdam seviyesinde iken enflasyon oranında bir artış tamamen nominal faiz oranını etkileyecektir. Bu çalışmada, Çin için Fisher Etkisinin geçerliliği 1996: 01-2015: 03 dönemi için test edilmiştir. Nominal faiz oranı ile enflasyon oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki, Peseran ve arkadaşları tarafından geliştirilen ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı kullanılarak incelenmiştir. ARDL testi öncesinde Fisher Etkisi’nin teorik arka planı incelenmiştir. Literatür araştırmasının ardından Augmented Dickey Fuller birim kök testi ile seriler durağanlaştırılmış ve durağan serilere ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Bounds) testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda Çin Ekonomisinde Fisher Etkisinin varlığına ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Interest Rate, Inflation, Fisher Effect, Error Correction Model, Co- integration Analysis, ARDL Bounds Test

Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy

Öz

In economic science, Fisher effect is known as the long run relationship between interest rates and inflation rates. According to Fisher, when economy at the full employment, increase in inflation is fully reflects to the nominal interest rates. Fisher equation is used to formulate the relationship between inflation and interest rates. Equation stands out the evidence about money growing, inflation and rates. In this study, the validity of fisher effect for China was tested over the period 1996:01 - 2015:03, the long run relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate was examined by using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach which was developed by Peseran et al. Before ARDL, theoretical background of Fisher Effect was explained. Following the literature survey, stationary situations were tested by Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. After that Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Bounds Test was applied on variables. According to result of study, the presence of fisher effect in China was supported.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Interest Rate, Inflation, Fisher Effect, Error Correction Model, Co- integration Analysis, ARDL Bounds Test

Kaynakça

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