ABD İşgücü Piyasasında Histeresi Etkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Yeni Keynesyen Ücret Phillips Eğrisi (1990-2014)

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 40, 31 - 53, 30.04.2019

Leyla Baştav

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.02

Cited By: 2

Öz

Bu çalışmada ABD ekonomisinde doğal işsizlik oranına karşı histeresi hipotezinin geçerliliği (1990:Q1-2014Q4) dönemi için araştırılmaktadır. Anaakım iktisat uzun dönemde, yüksek ve yapışkan işsizlik histeresi hipotezini değil, doğal oranı benimsemektedir. Birim kök testleri işsizlik/istihdam serilerinde durağan dışılık tespit etmiştir. Sonra, teorik çerçeve çizilerek, “beşeri sermaye” ve “içeridekiler-dışarıdakiler” hipotezleri de açıklanmıştır. Yeni Keynesyen Ücret Phillips Eğrisi (NKWPC) çerçevesinde ücret enflasyonu işsizlik, istihdam ve daha sonra çıktı açığı ve çıktı büyüme oranı değişkenlerine karşı tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre histeresi etkisi bulunmamakta, sadece çıktı büyüme oranı ile 2001 resesyonu esnasında gözlenmektedir. İşsizlik/istihdam serilerindeki durağan dışılığa talep şokları veya işgücü piyasası değişkenleri neden olabileceğinden ekonomi politikası tercihleri buna uygun olarak gerçekleştirilmelidir: talep yönlü politikalar veya işgücü piyasası tedbirleri.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yeni Keynesyen Ekonomi, Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar, İşgücü Piyasaları, Histeresi Zaman Serisi Modelleri

Empirical Evidence on the US Labour Market Hysteresis: New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (1990-2014)

Öz

This study investigates the concept of hysteresis for the US economy vs natural rate hypothesis during (1990:Q1-2014:Q4). Mainstream economics accepts the natural rate in the long run vs high and persistent unemployment idea of hysteresis. Unit root tests detect the nonstationarity of (un)employment series which may indicate hysteresis. Next, macroeconomic background is presented, and human capital or insider-outsider approaches are explained. With the (NKWPC) model, wage inflation is estimated with (un)employment variables and further with the output gap and growth of excess demand. Results reveal no hysteresis patterns except with the rate of change (ROC) of output during 2001 recession. Demand shocks or labour market factors may be causing nonstationarity of (un)employment according to which economic policy choice should be made regarding: demand management policies vs. labour market measures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

New Keynesian Economics, Business Cycles, Labour Market Structure, Hysteresis, Time Series Models

Kaynakça

• Arestis, P. & I.B.F. Mariscal (2000), “OECD Unemployment: Structural Breaks and Stationarity”, Applied Economics, 32(4), 399-403.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & T. Chang & O. Ranjbar (2018), “Testing Hysteresis Effect in the U.S. State Unemployment: New Evidence Using a Nonlinear Quantile Unit Root Test”, Applied Economics Letters, 25(4), 249-253.
• Ball, L.M. (1997), “Disinflation and the NAIRU”, in: C.D. Romer & D.H. Romer (eds.), Reducing Inflation, Motivation and Strategy, (NBER, Studies in Business Cycles, Volume 30), the University of Chicago Press: Chicago.
• Ball, L.M. (1999), “Aggregate Demand and Long Run Unemployment”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1999(2), 189-251.
• Ball, L.M. (2009), “Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence”, NBER Working Paper, No. 14818, March.
• Baştav, L. (2011), “An Empirical Study on the Wage and Price Stickiness of US Economy (19902009)”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 22(81), 45-64.
• Blanchard, O. (2005), “European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts Ideas”, NBER Working Paper, No. 11750, November.
• Blanchard, O.J. & L.H. Summers (1986), “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Blinder, A.S. (1988), “The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics”, Economic Record, December 278-94.
• Bureau of Economic Analysis Database (2015), <http://www.bea.gov>, March.
• Bureau of Labour Statistics Database (2015), <http://www.bls.gov>, March.
• Calvo, G. (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.
• Cheng, K.M. et al. (2012), “Hysteresis vs Natural Rate of US Unemployment”, Economic Modelling, 29(2), 428-434.
• Cogley, T. & A.M. Sbordone (2008), “Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve”, American Economic Review, 98(5), 2101-2126.
• Craigwell, R. & S.M.S. Maurin (2011), “Unemployment Hysteresis in the English-Speaking Caribbean: Evidence from Non-Linear Models”, Paper presented in Ecomod 2011 - International Conference on Economic Modeling, Azores, June 29 - July 1.
• Friedman, M. (1968), “The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Economic Review, March 58(1), 117.
• Gali, J. & M. Gertler (1999), “Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 195-222.
• Gali, J. (2010), “The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve”, NBER Working Paper, No. 15758, February.
• Gali, J. (2015), “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Revisited”, NBER Working Paper, No. 21430.
• Gordon, R.J. (1990), “What Is New Keynesian Economics?”, Journal of Economic Literature, September 28(3), 1115-71.
• Gottfries, N. & H. Horn (1987), “Wage formation and the Persistence of Unemployment”, Economic Journal, December 97, 877-884.
• Hargraves-Heap, S.P. (1980), “Choosing the Wrong Natural Rate, Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Unemployment and Growth”, Economic Journal, September 90, 611-20.
• Jaeger, A. & M. Parkinson (1991), “Some Evidence on Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates”, Forschungsbericht/Research Memorandum, No. 286, October.
• Leon-Ledesma, M.A. (2002), “Unemployment Hysteresis in the US and the EU: A Panel Data Approach”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 54(2), 95-103.
• Lindbeck, A. & D.J. Snower (1988), “Cooperation, Harassment and Involuntary Unemployment: An Insider-Outsider Approach”, American Economic Review, March 78(1), 167-188.
• Llaudes, R. (2008), “Unemployment and Inflation in Europe”, PhD. Dissertation, Johns Hopkins University-Maryland.
• Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1996), “Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality”, Journal of Political Economy, August 104(4), 666-82.
• Mankiw, N.G. (1992), “The Reincarnation of Keynesian Economics”, European Economic Review, 36(2-3), April 559-65.
• Mitchell, W.F. (1993), “Testing for Unit Roots and Persistence in OECD Unemployment Rates”, Applied Economics, 25, 1489-1501.
• Mohan, R. & F. Kemegue & F. Sjuib (2008), “Hysteresis in Unemployment: Panel Unit Roots Tests Using State Level Data”, Journal of Business and Economics Research, 6(2), 53-60.
• Nason, J.M. & G.W. Smith (2008), “The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Lessons from Single Equation Econometric Estimation”, Economic Quarterly, 94(4), 361-395.
• Phelps, E.S. (1967), “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time”, Economica, 34(135), August 254-281.
• Phelps, E.S. (1972), Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory, NY: Norton.
• Phillips, A.W. (1958), “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957”, Economica, 25(100), November 283299.
• Roed, K. (1996), “Unemployment Hysteresis - Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries”, Empirical Economics, 21, 589-600.
• Roed, K. (1999), “A Note on the Macroeconomic Modelling of Unemployment Hysteresis”, Applied Economics Letters, 6, 255-258.
• Rotemberg, J.J. (1982), “Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output”, The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 517-531.
• Samuelson, P.H. & R.M. Solow (1960), “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, American Economic Review, 50, 177-194.
• Saz, G. (2011), “The Turkish Phillips Curve Experience and the New Keynesian Phillips curve: A Conceptualization and Application of a Novel Measure for Marginal Costs”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 63, 8-45.
• Snowdon, B. & H.R. Vane (1995), “New Keynesian Economics Today”, American Economist, (39), Spring, 48-65.
• Snowdon, B. & H.R. Vane (1997), “The Development of Modern Macroeconomics, A Rough Guide”, in: B. Snowdon & H.R. Vane (eds.), A Macroeconomics Reader, Routledge: New York.
• Tokatlıoğlu, İ. & T. Öztürk & H.N. Ardor (2014), “AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Histeri Etkisi: RATCHET Modeli Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 22(22), 297-320.
• Tsangyao, C. et al. (2007), “Hysteresis in Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan’s Region Data Based on Panel Unit Root Tests”, Applied Economics, (39), 1335-1340.
• Yagan, D. (2018), “Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession”, NBER Working Paper, No. 23844.