BREXIT ve İngiltere için J-Eğrisi Hipotezi: NARDL Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 40, 229 - 239, 30.04.2019

Ayşen Sivrikaya , Serdar Ongan

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.14

Cited By: 6

Öz

Bu çalışmada, İngiltere ve temel ticaret ortağı 17 ülke arasındaki ikili ticaret üzerinden J-eğrisi hipotezi araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla, 1981Q1-2015Q1 dönemi verileri ve Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) eş-bütünleşme yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, İngiltere ve 17 ticaret ortağı arasındaki ticaret için J-eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, bu çalışma sonuçlarına göre, İngiliz sterlinin değerindeki azalış veya artış, İngiliz ticaret hadlerinde kısa dönemde asimetrik etkiler yaratmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma, İngiltere’de yapılan 2016 Avrupa Birliği Üyeliği Referandumu sonrası, İngiliz sterlininin değerinde gerçekleşen dalgalanmaların kısa ve uzun dönemde İngiliz ticaret hadlerine etkisini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

J-Eğrisi, BREXIT, Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL, Asimetri, İngiltere

BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Öz

In this study, we investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis based on the bilateral trade models between the UK and its 17 main trading partner countries over the period of 1981Q1-2015Q1, by applying Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) cointegration approach. The results of this study suggest no evidence supporting the J-curve hypothesis between the UK and any of its 17 trading partners. We also find that depreciations and appreciations in value of the GBP have asymmetric effects on the UK’s trade balances in the short-run. Therefore, the results of this study have potential to shed light on both short run and long run consequences of the recent fluctuations of the GBP with respect to the trade balances after the UK’s EU membership referendum in 2016.

Anahtar Kelimeler

J-Curve, BREXIT, Nonlinear ARDL; Asymmetry, the UK

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