Time-Varying and Asymmetric Relationship between Energy Use and Macroeconomic Activity

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 41, 235 - 252, 31.07.2019

Ayşen Sivrikaya Mübariz Hasanov

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.03.12

Öz

In this paper, we analyze the dynamic interactions among energy use, output, capital stock and employment for the USA. Our results suggest that these interactions are time-varying and show asymmetries in terms of the one variable’s responses of big versus small and positive versus negative shocks to another variable. In particular, we find that negative energy shocks have greater impact on macroeconomic variables than positive shocks. Furthermore, small energy shocks have greater effects than big shocks. Our results also suggest that the shocks to production factors reduce energy use, implying that energy and the other factors of production are substitutes rather than compliments. These results have clear policy implications. Namely, aggressive energy saving policies might be more politically viable. In addition, the policies promoting more efficient and energy-saving capital and production technologies could help reducing energy use.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Asymmetry, Employment, Energy Demand, Structural Change, Output Growth

Enerji Kullanımı ile Makroekonomik Aktivite Arasındaki Zamanla Değişen ve Asimetrik İlişki

Öz

Bu çalışmada, enerji kullanımı, çıktı, sermaye stoku ve istihdam arasındaki dinamik etkileşimler ABD verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, bu etkileşimlerin zamanla değiştiğini ve bir değişkenin başka bir değişkende gerçekleşen büyük ve küçük şoklara verdiği tepkilerin asimetrik olduğunu göstermektedir. Benzer şekilde, bir değişkene vuran pozitif ve negatif şokların diğer değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri birbirinden farklıdır. Daha özel olarak bu çalışmada, makroekonomik değişkenlerin negatif enerji şoklarına pozitif şoklara göre daha fazla tepki verdiği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, çalışma sonuçlarına göre, küçük enerji şoklarının büyük şoklara göre makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri daha büyüktür. Bunlara ek olarak, üretim faktörlerine yönelik şoklar enerji kullanımını azaltmaktadır. Bu bulgu, enerji ve diğer üretim faktörlerinin tamamlayıcı olmak yerine ikame olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen bulguların çok açık politika sonuçları bulunmaktadır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, enerji tasarrufunu destekleyen politika uygulamaları ekonomik büyümeye engel olmamaktadır. Ayrıca, daha verimli ve enerji tasarrufu sağlayan sermaye ve üretim teknolojilerini teşvik eden politikalar, enerji kullanımını azaltmaya yardımcı olabilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Asimetri, İstihdam, Enerji Talebi, Yapısal Değişiklik, Çıktı Büyümesi

Kaynakça

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