Demand Regime of Turkey: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 42, 163 - 180, 31.10.2019

Anıl Bölükoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.04.09

Cited By: 2

Öz

The aim of this study is to analyse, from a Post-Keynesian perspective, how factor income distribution affects growth potential of Turkey. To do this, the study estimates Turkey’s demand regime between 1998-2018 by using quarterly data on the basis of the model developed by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) and through the empirical approach of Naastepad (2006). According to the results of the study, the demand regime of Turkey is found to be wage-led. In other words, positive effect of the expansion in consumption expenditures on economic growth triggered by increased wage shares is found to be greater than its contractionary effects on investment and export. According to the empirical results, it is argued that pro-labor economic policies would make positive contribution to economic growth in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Growth, Functional Income Distribution, Post-Keynesian Economics

Türkiye’nin Talep Rejimi: Post-Keynesyen Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı emek ve sermaye arasındaki gelir dağılımının Türkiye’nin büyüme potansiyelini nasıl etkilediğini Post-Keynesyen bir açıdan incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma Bhaduri ve Marglin’in (1990) geliştirdiği model temelinde Naastepad’ın (2006) ampirik yaklaşımı aracılığıyla 1998-2019 yılları arasında çeyrek dönemlik veriler yardımıyla Türkiye’nin talep rejimini tahmin etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre adı geçen zaman aralığında talep rejimi ücret çekişli bulunmuştur. Diğer bir deyişle ücret paylarındaki artıştan kaynaklanan tüketim harcamalarındaki genişlemenin büyüme üzerindeki olumlu etkisinin, yatırım ve ihracat üzerindeki daraltıcı etkisinden büyük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu ampirik sonuçlar temelinde emek yanlısı iktisat politikalarının ekonomik büyümeye olumlu katkıda bulunacağı ileri sürülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Büyüme, Fonksiyonel Gelir Dağılımı, Post Keynesyen İktisat

Kaynakça

• Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1992, Mart). A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323-351. doi:10.3386/w3223
• Amadeo, E. J. (1986). Notes on Capacity Utilisation, Distribution and Accumulation. Contributions to Political Economy, 5, 83-94. doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.cpe.a035705Baum, C. F. (2006). An Introduction to Modern Econometrics Using STATA. College Station: STATA Press.
• A.F. Aysan & Y.S. Hacihasanoglu (2007), “Investigation on the Determinants of Turkish ExportBoom in 2000s”, Working Papers 2007/19, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
• Bhaskar, V. & A. Glyn (1995), “Investment and profitability: the evidence from the advanced countries”, in: G. Epstein & H. Gintis (eds.), Macroeconomic Policy after the Conservative Era: Studies in Investment, Saving and Finance, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 175-196.
• Baum, C.F. (2006), An Introduction to Modern Econometrics Using STATA, College Station: STATA Press.
• Balcilar, M. & H. Bal & N. Algan & M. Demiral (2014), “Türkiye’in İhracat Performansı: İhracat Hacminin Temel Belirleyicilerinin İncelenmesi (1995-2012)”, Ege Academic Review, 14(3), 451-462.
• Bhaduri , A., & Marglin, S. (1990, Aralık). Unemployment and the real wage: the economic basis for contesting political ideologies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14(4), 375-393. doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035141
• Blecker, R. A. (2002). Distribution, demand and growth in neo-Kaleckian macro-models. M. Setterfield içinde, The Economics of Demand-led Growth, Challenging the Supply-Side Vision of the Long Run (s. 129-152). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
• Bowles, S., & Boyer , R. (1995). Wages, aggregate demand, and employment in an open economy: an empirical investigation. G. Epstein, & G. Gİntis içinde, Macroeconomic Policy After the Conservative Era (s. 143-171). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Dutt, A. K. (1984, Mart 1). Stagnation, income distribution and monopoly power. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 8(1), 25-40. doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035533
• Dutt, A. K. (1990). Growth, distribution and uneven development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press .
• Ederer, S., & Stockhammer, E. (2007). Wages and aggregate demand in France: An empirical investigation. E. Hein, & A. Truger içinde, Money, Distribution, and Economic Policy- Alternatives to Orthodox Macroeconomics (s. 138-140). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
• Gollin, D. (2002, Nisan). Getting Income Shares Right. Journal of Political Economy, 110(2), 458-474. doi:10.1086/338747
• Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1989, Aralık). Product Development and International Trade. The Journal of Political Economy, 97(6), 1261-1283. doi:10.1086/261653
• Günçavdi, Ö. & A. McKay (2003), “Macroeconomic adjustment and private manufacturing investment in Turkey: a time-series analysis”, Applied Economics, 35(18), 1901-1909.
• Hein, E., & Vogel, L. (2007). Distribution and growth reconsidered:empirical results for six OECD countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(3), 1-33. doi:10.1093/cje/bem047
• Hunt, E. K., & Lautzenheiser, M. (2011). History of Economic Thought. New York: M.E.Sharpe.
• Jetin, B., & Kurt, O. E. (2016). Functional income distribution and growth in Thailand: A post Keynesian econometric analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 39(3), 334-360. doi:10.1080/01603477.2016.1202774
• Kalecki, M. (2010). Theory of Economic Dynamics: An Essay on Cyclical and Long-Run Changes in Capitalist Economy. New York: Routledge.
• Karagöz, K. (2010), “Determining Factors of Private Investments: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey”, Sosyoekonomi, 11(11), 9-26.
• King, J. E. (2002). A History of Post Keynesian Economics since 1936. Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
• Klump, R., McAdam, P., & Willman, A. (2007, Şubat). Factor Substitution and Factor-Augmenting Technical Progress in the United States: A Normalized Supply-Side System Approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 183-192. doi:10.1162/rest.89.1.183
• Krueger, A. B. (1999, Mayıs). Measuring Labor's Share. The American Economic Review, 89(2), 45-51. doi:10.1257/aer.89.2.45
• Molero-Simarro, R. (2015). Functional distribution of income, aggregate demand, and economic growth in the Chinese economy, 1978–2007. International Review of Applied Economics, 29(4), 435-454. doi:10.1080/02692171.2015.1016404
• Naastepad , C. M., & Storm, S. (2006). OECD demand regimes (1960-2000). Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 29(2), 211-246. doi:10.2753/PKE0160-3477290203
• Naastepad, C. M. (2006, Mayıs). Technology, demand and distribution: a cumulative growth model with an application to. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(3), 403-434. doi:10.1093/cje/bei063
• Onaran , Ö., & Stockhammer, E. (2005). Two Different Export-Oriented Growth Strategies: Accumulation and Distribution in Turkey and South Korea. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 65-89. doi:10.1080/1540496X.2005.11052596
• Onaran, Ö., & Galanis, G. (2012). Is aggregate demand wage-led or profit-led? National and global effects. Conditions of Work and Employment Series(31).
• Onaran, Ö., & Galanis, G. (2013). Is Aggregate Demand Wage-led or Profit-led? A Global Model. M. Lavoie, & E. Stcokhammer içinde, Wage-led Growth: An Equitable Strategy for Economic Recovery (s. 71-99). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Pasinetti, L. L. (2000, Aralık). Critique of the neoclassical theory of gorwth and distribution. BNL Quarterly Review, 53(215), 383-431. 10 23, 2017 tarihinde https://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9924/9806 adresinden alındı
• Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century. (A. Goldhammer, Çev.) Cambridge, England: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
• Romer, P. M. (1994, Winter). The Origins of Endogenous Growth. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3-22. doi:10.1257/jep.8.1.3
• Romer, P. M. (1998, Ekim). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71-S102. doi:10.1086/261725
• Rowthorn, B. (1981, Sonbahar). Demand, Real Wages and Economic Growth. Thames Papers in Political Economy, 81(3).
• Solow, R. M. (1956, Şubat). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94. doi:10.2307/1884513
• Stockhammer, E., & Ederer, S. (2008, Haziran 26). Demand effects of the falling wage share in Austria. Empirica, 35, 481-502. doi:10.1007/s10663-008-9069-0
• Stockhammer, E., & Onaran, Ö. (2004). Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15, 421-447. doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2003.07.002
• Stockhammer, E., Onaran, Ö., & Ederer, S. (2009). Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33, 139-159. doi:10.1093/cje/ben026