The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 45, 63 - 86, 30.07.2020

Musa Bayır

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.05

Cited By: 2

Öz

Housing markets have an essential role in the process leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. The problems in the housing markets started with monetary tightening. These developments revealed the importance of the relationship between monetary policy, housing markets, and the real sector. Besides, the role of housing prices in the monetary transmission mechanism has begun to examine. In this context, the paper aims to investigate the role of housing prices in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Turkish economy empirically. The analysis method of the study is Structural VAR. The analysis period is 2011:1-2019:4. According to the results of the analysis, monetary policy affects housing prices. However, housing prices have no impact on consumption and housing investment. When these two situations evaluated together, housing prices have no role in the monetary transmission mechanism. On the other hand, the analyses indicate that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey closely followed the housing prices. In this framework, it reacts rapidly to the appropriate policy response.

Anahtar Kelimeler

House Prices, Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Structural VAR

Konut Fiyatlarının Parasal Aktarım Mekanizmasındaki Rolü

Öz

Konut piyasalarının 2008 finansal krizine giden süreçte önemli bir rolü bulunmaktadır. Konut piyasalarındaki olumsuzluklar ise para politikasındaki daralmayla başlamıştır. Bu gelişmeler para politikası, konut piyasaları ve reel sektör arasındaki ilişkinin önemini ortaya çıkarmıştır. Ayrıca, konut fiyatlarının parasal aktarımdaki rolü sorgulanmaya başlamıştır. Bu bağlamda, makale konut fiyatlarının Türkiye ekonomisinde parasal aktarım mekanizmasındaki rolünü ampirik olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın analiz yöntemi Yapısal VAR’dır. Analiz dönemi 2011:1-2019:4 şeklindedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, para politikası konut fiyatlarını etkilemektedir. Ancak, konut fiyatlarının tüketim ve konut yatırımları üzerinde bir etkisi yoktur. Bu iki durum birlikte değerlendirildiğinde, konut fiyatlarının parasal aktarım mekanizmasında rolü bulunmamaktadır. Diğer taraftan, analizler Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’nın konut fiyatlarını yakından takip ettiğini göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede, uygun politika tepkisini hızla vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Konut Fiyatları, Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması, Yapısal VAR

Kaynakça

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