Middle Income Trap: The Ignored Role of Women

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 49, 33 - 46, 30.07.2021

Leyla Firuze Arda Özalp

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.03.02

Öz

This paper estimates the links between the middle-income trap and women’s employment with the dataset of 27 middle-income countries for 22 years. In line with the study’s prime objective, a panel logit regression model is used. The findings based on the conditional fixed-effects logistic regression show that the possibility of a middle-income country being a high-income economy is significantly associated with women’s employment rate, productivity, innovation, and institution. The results also show that female employment is an argument of escape strategy that has more impact than other variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Middle Income Trap, Growth, Women’s Employment, Panel Data, Logistic Regression

Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Kadınların Göz Ardı Edilen Rolü

Öz

Bu makale, orta gelir tuzağı ve kadın istihdamı arasındaki ilişkiyi, 22 yıllık dönem için 27 orta gelirli ülkenin veri setiyle tahmin etmektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı doğrultusunda panel logit regresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Lojistik regresyona bağlı bulgular, orta gelirli bir ülkenin yüksek gelirli bir ekonomi olma olasılığının, kadın istihdam oranı, verimlilik, yenilik ve kurumlar ile önemli ölçüde ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, sonuçlar kadın istihdamının diğer değişkenlerden daha fazla etkiye sahip bir kaçış stratejisi argümanı olduğunu da göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Büyüme, Kadın İstihdamı, Panel Veri, Lojistik Regresyon

Kaynakça

• Agénor, P.R. & O. Canuto & M. Jelenic (2012), “Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps”, Economic Premise, (98), World Bank.
• Baltagi, B. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons.
• Bolt, J. & R. Inklaar & H. de Jong & J.L. van Zanden (2018), Maddison Project Database.
• Buğra, A. (2014), “Giriş”, in: A. Buğra & Y. Özkan (eds.), Akdeniz’de Kadın İstihdamının Seyri, İstanbul, İletişim Yayınları, 9-28.
• Daude, C. & E. Fernández-Arias (2010), On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, OECD Publishing.
• Eichengreen, B. & D. Park & K. Shin (2012), “When Fast-Growing Economies Slowdown: International Evidence and Implications for China”, Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), 42-87.
• Eichengreen, B. & D. Park & K. Shin (2013), “Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap”, (No. w18673), Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Felipe, J. & A. Abdon & U. Kumar (2012), “Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute Working Paper.
• Gill, I.S. & H. Kharas (2015), “The Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.
• Gill, I.S. & H. Kharas (eds.) (2007), An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, The World Bank.
• Kabir, M.A. & A. Ahmed (2019), “An Empirical Approach to Understanding the Lower-Middle and Upper-Middle Income Traps”, International Journal of Development Issues, 18(2), 171-190.
• Köse, T. & K. Çınar (2018), “Türkiye Orta Gelir Tuzağından Kaçabilir mi? İktisadi Gelişmeye Kurumsalcı Bir Yaklaşım”, Sosyoekonomi, 26(38), 151-170.
• Kremer, M. (2007), How Welfare States Care: Culture, Gender, and Parenting in Europe, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
• Le Mare, A. & B. Promphaking & J. Rigg (2015), “Returning Home: The Middle‐Income Trap and Gendered Norms in Thailand”, Journal of International Development, 27(2), 285-306.
• Lee, C. & D. Narjoko (2015), “Escaping the Middle‐Income Trap in Southeast Asia: Micro Evidence on Innovation, Productivity, and Globalization”, Asian Economic Policy Review, 10(1), 124-147.
• Mierau, J.O. & R. Jong-A-Pin & J. De Haan (2007), “Do Political Variables Affect Fiscal Policy Adjustment Decisions? New Empirical Evidence”, Public Choice, 133(3-4), 297-319.
• Ozturk, A. (2016), “Examining the Economic Growth and the Middle-Income Trap from the Perspective of the Middle Class”, International Business Review, 25(3), 726-738.
• Vivarelli, M. (2016), “The middle-income trap: a way out based on technological and structural change”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 49(2-3), 159-193.
• Vogelvang, B. (2005), Econometrics: Theory and Applications with Eviews, Pearson Education.
• Wang, Y. (2016), “The Political Economy of the Middle-Income Trap: Implications for Potential Growth”, Asian Development Review, 33(2), 167-181.
• Woo, W.T. (2012), “China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
• World Bank (2013), China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society, Development Research Center of The State Council & The People’s Republic of China, World Bank Publications.
• Wu, Y. (2014), “Productivity, Economic Growth and the Middle-Income Trap: Implications for China”, Frontiers of Economics in China, 9(3), 460-483.
• Yao, Z. (2015), “How Can China Avoid the Middle-Income Trap?”, China & World Economy, 23(5). 26-42.