Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns

Fatih Günay; Engin Bayraktaroğlu

doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05

Araştırma Makalesi

Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 51, 91 - 118, 31.01.2022

Fatih Günay Engin Bayraktaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05

Öz

This paper examines the impact of interest rate announcements by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Borsa İstanbul tourism index returns. During the period covering 2010-2020, the effects of the CBRT's 20 decrease announcements and eight increase announcements on tourism index daily returns were examined separately using the event study method. Moreover, the BIST100 index was analysed for comparison purposes. According to the study results in which ARs were calculated with the mean adjusted return model, out of 20 announcements of decreases in the interest rate, only 3 showed statistically significant ARs on the event date. This result indicates that tourism investors’ reactions to policy rate announcements are weak and suggests the policy rate does not affect tourism investors' reactions. The findings for the BIST100 support this idea.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Index Returns, BIST Tourism, Interest Rates Announcements, CBRT, Event Study

Kaynakça

Ada, S.S. et al. (2013), “Politik seçimler, referandumlar ve hisse senedi getirileri: İMKB örneği”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 50(579), 23-40.
Aktaş, H. et al. (2018), “The effects of foreign central bank monetary policies on BIST100 index volatility”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 25(3), 749-756.
Al-Najjar, B. (2014), “Corporate governance, tourism growth and firm performance: Evidence from publicly listed tourism firms in five Middle Eastern countries”, Tourism Management, (42), 342-351.
Armitage, S. (1995), “Event Study Methods and Evidence on Their Performance”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 8(4), 25-52.
Assefa, T.A. et al. (2017), “Stock returns and interest rates around the World: A panel data approach”, Journal of Economics and Business, 89, 20-35.
Asteriou, D. et al. (2013), “The London 2012 Olympic Games announcement and its effect on the London Stock Exchange”, Journal of Economic Studies, 40(2), 203-221.
Barrows, C.W. & A. Naka (1994), “Use of macroeconomic variables to evaluate selected hospitality stock returns in the US”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 13(2), 119-128.
Bayır, M. & N. Abdi̇oğlu (2020), “The effect of interest rate corridor on Turkish financial markets”, Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 9(5), 3244-3263.
Bellemore, D.H. & L.H. Blucher (1959), “A study of stock splits in the post war years”, Financial Analysts Journal, 15(5), 19-26.
Beninga, S. (2008), Financial Modeling, (3. edt.), London: The MIT Press.
Berk, J. et al. (2012), Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, (6. edt.), USA: Prentice Hall.
Bernanke, B.S. & K.N. Kuttner (2005), “What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?”, The Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1221-1257.
Bilson, C.M. et al. (2001), “Selecting macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stock market returns”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 9(4), 401-426.
Bloom, B.A.N. & L.A. Jackson (2016), “Abnormal stock returns and volume activity surrounding lodging firms' CEO transition announcements”, Tourism Economics, 22(1), 141-161.
Borde, S.F. et al. (1999), “Stock price reaction to dividend increases in the hotel and restaurant sector”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 23(1), 40-52.
Brown, S.J. & J.B. Warner (1980), “Measuring security price performance”, Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 205-258.
Brown, S.J. & J.B. Warner (1985), “Using daily stock returns, The case of event studies”, Journal of Financial Economics, 14, 3-31.
Burton, E.T. & S.N. Shah (2013), Behavioral Finance, Understanding The Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates, New Jersey: John Wiley.
Cave, J. et al. (2009), “Supply-side investments: an international analysis of the return and risk relationship in the travel & leisure sector”, Tourism Management, 30(5), 665-673.
CBRT (2021a), Central Bank Monetary Policy Framework, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Monetary+Policy+Framework>, 30.11.2020.
CBRT (2021b), 1 Week Repo Rate, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Interest+Rates/1+Week+Repo>, 30.11.2020.
Çelik, M.S. & R. Koç (2019), “Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki uçak krizinin Borsa İstanbul (BİST) turizm ve enerji şirket hisselerine etkisi üzerine bir event study analizi”, Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(1), 1-15.
Çelik, Ş. et al. (2015), “TCMB para politikası kararlarındaki değişimlerin ve TCMB, FED ve ECB sözlü yönlendirmelerin BIST100 oynaklığı üzerindeki etkisinin analizi (2002-2014)”, Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (103), 51-83.
Cengiz, V. (2009), “Parasal aktarım mekanizması işleyişi ve ampirik bulgular”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (33), 225-247.
Çetin, M. (2016), “Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) para politikası uygulamalarının gelişimi”, Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 8(14), 67-101.
Chadwick, M.G. (2018), “Dependence of the 'Fragile Five' and 'Troubled Ten' emerging market financial systems on US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty”, Research in International Business and Finance, 49, 251-268.
Chan, F. & C. Lim (2011), “Tourism stock performance and macro factors”, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12-16 December 2011.
Chang, C. & Y.Y. Zeng (2011), “Impact of terrorism on hospitality stocks and the role of investor sentiment”, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 52(2), 165-175.
Chen, M.-H. (2011), “The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (30), 200-212.
Chen, M.-H. (2013), “Asymmetric response of hospitality stock prices to FED policy actions”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (33), 129-139.
Chen, M.H. et al. (2005), “The impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on hotel stock returns”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 24(2), 243-258.
Chen, M.-H. et al. (2007), “The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach”, Hospitality Management, 26, 200-212.
Chen, M.-H. et al. (2009), “The impact of government weekend policy changes and foreign institutional holdings on weekly effect of tourism stock performance”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 33(2), 139-160.
Christiano, L. et al. (2010), “Monetary policy and stock market booms”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 16402.
Çıtak, L. & E. Ersoy (2016), “Firmaların BIST sürdürülebilirlik endeksine alınmasına yatırımcı tepkisi: Olay çalışması ve ortalama testleri ile bir analiz”, Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 43-57.
Demir, E. & O. Ersan (2018), “The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock returns of Turkish tourism companies”, Current Issues in Tourism, 21(8), 847-855.
Demir, E. et al. (2017), “Macro explanatory factors of Turkish tourism companies' stock returns”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4), 370-380.
Dolley, J.C. (1933), “Characteristics and procedure of common stock split-ups”, Harvard Business Review, 11(3), 316-326.
Domian, D.L. et al. (1996), “Expected inflation, interest rates, and stock returns”, Financial Review, 31(4), 809-830.
Dyckman, T. et al. (1984), “A comparison of event study methodologies using daily stock returns: A simulation approach”, Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 1-30.
Elbir, G. & S.Y. Kandır (2017), “Yatırım duyurularının pay getirileri üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi: Demir-çelik sektörü örneği”, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 16-32.
Ertuğrul, H.M. et al. (2020), “Türkiye'de negatif reel faiz uygulamasının etkileri: seçilmiş temel göstergeler üzerine bir inceleme”, Proceeding of III. International Conference on Empirical Economics and Social Sciences (e-ICEESS’20), 309-323, 12-13 December, Balıkesir, Turkey.
Evrim-Mandacı, P. (2003), “İMKB’de genel seçimler öncesi ve sonrasında anormal fiyat hareketleri”, İMKB Dergisi, 7(27), 1-16.
Fama, E. et al. (1969), “The adjustment of stock prices to new information”, International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
Fama, E.F. (1970), “Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work”, The Journal of Finance, 25(2), Papers and Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association New York, N.Y. December, 28-30, 1969 (May, 1970), 383-417.
Ganev, G. et al. (2002), “Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe”, CASE Report No. 52, Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw.
Gökalp, B.T. (2016), “Para politikası kararlarının hisse senetlerinin fiyatları üzerindeki etkileri”, S.D.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(4), 1379-1396.
Gu, Z. (1994), “Hospitality investment return, risk, and performance indexes: a ten-year examination”, Hospitality Research Journal, 17(3), 17-26.
Günay, F. & L. Koşan (2020), “Maliyet yapışkanlığının pay getirisine etkisi: turizm alt sektörlerinde bir uygulama”, Muhasebe ve Vergi Uygulamaları Dergisi, 13(3), 667-707.
Günay, F. (2020), “Terör, politik ve askeri olaylara Borsa İstanbul turizm sektörü yatırımcı tepkisi”, İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 35(4), 839-856.
Günay, F. et al. (2020), “Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on foreign visitor's demand for Turkey: A scenario analysis”, Journal of Ekonomi, 2(2), 80-85.
Gupta, R. & M. Reid (2020), “Macroeconomic surprises and stock returns in South Africa”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 30(3), 266-282.
Hendricks, K.B. & V.R. Singhal (2008), “The effect of supply chain disruptions on shareholder value”, Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, 19(7-8), 777-791.
Homer, S. & R.E. Sylla (2005), A History of Interest Rates, 4. Edt. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Johnson, M. et al. (2015), “The impact of authorization of the travel promotion act on hotel firm stock returns”, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 56(1), 29-40.
Kanalıcı-Akay, H. & M. Nargeleçekenler (2009), “Para politikası şokları hisse senedi fiyatını etkiler mi? Türkiye örneği”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 27(2), 129-152.
Kaya, İ. et al. (2017), “15 Temmuz darbe girişiminin BİST 30/100 endeksleri üzerine etkisinin olay çalışması (Event Study) yöntemi ile analizi”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 54-67.
Kim, J. & S.S. Jang (2012), “Comparative analyses of hotel REITs: examining risk‐return and performance characteristics”, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 24(4), 594-613.
Kim, S.H. et al. (2009), “Effect of IT investment announcements on the market value of hospitality firms using event study methodology”, Tourism Economics, 15(2), 397-411.
Koç, A. & S. Gürsoy (2020), “Amerikan merkez bankası FED’in para politikası araçları ve bağımsızlığı”, Econder Uluslararası Akademik Dergi, 4(2), 421-447.
Kwansa, F.A. (1994), “Acquisitions, shareholder wealth and the lodging sector: 1980‐1990”, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 6(6), 16-20.
Kyereboah‐Coleman, A. & K.F. Agyire‐Tettey (2008), “Impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock market performance: The case of the Ghana Stock Exchange”, Journal of Risk Finance, 9(4), 365-378.
Leung, W.K. & T.S. Lee (2006), “Institutional investors and the Monday effect on tourism stocks”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 25(3), 348-372.
MacKinlay, A.C. (1997), “Event studies in economics and finance”, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(March), 13-39.
Madanoglu, M. et al. (2007), “The impact of terrorist bombings on the market values of hospitality and tourism enterprises: Global evidence from Turkey, Spain, and Indonesia”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 15(2), 49-60.
Madanoglu, M. et al. (2011), “Franchising and firm financial performance among US restaurants”, Journal of Retailing, 87(3), 406-417.
Morgan, S. (2013), “Global EM Investor The Fragile Five”, <http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/MorganStanleyFragileFive.pdf>, 28.01.2021.
Mutan, O. & A. Topcu (2009), “Türkiye hisse senedi piyasasının 1990-2009 tarihleri arasında yaşanan beklenmedik olaylara tepkisi”, Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Araştırma Raporu, Araştırma Dairesi: 22.06.2009 OCM 2009/01.
Nezerwe, Y. (2013), “Presidential elections and stock returns in Egypt”, Review of Business & Finance Studies, 4(2), 63-68.
Özmen, M. et al. (2012), “Türkiye için döviz kuru, faiz ve enflasyonun hisse senedi getirileri üzerine etkileri”, Ç.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(1), 107-120.
Paramati, S.R. & R. Gupta (2013), “An empirical relationship between exchange rates, Interest rates and stock returns”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, (56), 168-181.
Peterson, P.P. (1989), “Event studies: A review of issues and methodology”, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 28(3), 36-66.
Pilinkus, D. (2010), “Macroeconomic indicators and their impact on stock market performance in the short and long run: The case of the baltic states”, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(2), 291-304.
Poyraz, E. et al. (2020), “Politika faizindeki değişimlerin Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin olay analizi ile incelenmesi”, International Review of Economics and Management, 8(2), 201-220.
Qin, M. et al. (2017), “Mobile app introduction and shareholder returns”, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 31, 173-180.
Ross, S.A. et al. (2002), Corporate Finance (6th edt.), USA: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Şahin, E. et al. (2017), “Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki “Uçak Krizinin” Borsa İstanbul gıda, içecek ve turizm endeksleri üzerine etkisi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 8(3), 473-485.
Sakarya, Ş. (2011), “İMKB kurumsal yönetim endeksi kapmasındaki şirketlerin kurumsal yönetim derecelendirme notu ve hisse senedi getirileri arasındaki ilişkinin olay çalışması (Event Study) yöntemi ile analizi”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(13), 147-162.
Sheel, A. & N. Wattanasuttiwong (1998), “The relevance of financial leverage for equity returns of restaurant firms-an empirical examination”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 6(1), 21-31.
Sheel, A. & Y. Zhong (2005), “Cash dividend announcements and abnormal returns in the lodging and restaurant sectors: An empirical examination”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 13(1), 49-58.
Singal, M. (2012), “Effect of consumer sentiment on hospitality expenditures and stock returns”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (31), 511-521.
Singh, G. & L. Padmakumari (2020), “Stock market reaction to inflation announcement in the Indian stock market: A sectoral analysis”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1723827).
Strong, N. (1992), “Modelling abnormal returns: A review article”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 19(4), 533-553.
Szutowski, D. & M.A. Bednarska (2014), “Short-Term Effects of Innovations on Tourism Enterprise Market Value: Event Study Approach”, in: F. Dias, S. Oliveira, J. Kosmaczewska & Â. Pereira (eds.), New Trends in Tourism Research: A Polish Perspective, (205-217), Portugal: GITUR.
Tanınmış-Yücememiş, B. et al. (2015), “Yeni bir para politikası aracı olarak faiz koridoru: Türkiye’de para politikası kurulu faiz kararlarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi”, Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 7(13), 449-478.
Tüzün, O. et al. (2016), “TCMB ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyeti’nin BIST100 üzerindeki etkisi”, Journal of Yaşar University, 11(44), 263-277.
Uyar, U. et al. (2016), “Gösterge faiz oranı dalgalanmaları ve BIST endeksleri arasındaki ilişkinin eşanlı kantil regresyon ile analizi”, Ege Academic Review, 16(4), 587-598.
Van Horne, J.C. (2002), Financial Management and Policy (12. edt.), New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Wei, Y. (2013), “A comparative analysis of investment returns on hotels and casino hotels through the recession”, Unpublished Master Thesis, Iowa State University.
Welch, I. (2004), “Capital structure and stock returns”, Journal of Political Economy, 112(1), 106-131.
Wong, K.K.F. & H. Song (2006), “Do macroeconomic variables contain any useful information for predicting changes in hospitality stock indices?”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 30(1), 16-33.
Yang, J. et al. (2009), “Merger abnormal returns and payment methods of hospitality firms”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 28(4), 579-585.
Yıldırım, H.H. et al. (2019), “Vergi oranlarındaki indirimin sektör endeksleri üzerindeki etkisi: BİST’de bir araştırma”, Yeni Ekonomik Trendler ve İş Fırsatları, 408-420.
Zopiatis, A. et al. (2018), “Tourism stocks in times of crisis: an econometric investigation of unexpected nonmacroeconomic factors”, Journal of Travel Research, 1-21.

Merkez Bankası Faiz Duyurularının Borsa İstanbul Turizm Endeksi Getirilerine Etkisinin Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 51, 91 - 118, 31.01.2022

Fatih Günay Engin Bayraktaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05

Öz

Bu makale, TCMB'nin açıkladığı faiz kararlarının Borsa İstanbul turizm endeks getirileri üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada olay çalışması yöntemiyle 2010-2020 döneminde TCMB’nin açıkladığı 20 faiz indirim ve 8 faiz artırım kararının turizm endeksi günlük getirilerine etkisi ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. Ayrıca, karşılaştırma amacıyla BIST100 endeksi incelenmiştir. Ortalama getiri modeliyle anormal getirilerin hesaplandığı çalışma bulgularına göre faiz oranı duyurularındaki 20 düşüşten sadece 3'ünde olay gününde turizm endeksi anlamlı anormal getiri gözlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, turizm yatırımcılarının politika faiz duyurularına tepkilerinin zayıf olduğunu ve politika faizinin turizm yatırımcılarını doğrudan etkilemediğini göstermektedir. BIST100 endeksinde elde edilen bulgular, faiz kararlarının pay getirilerine doğrudan etkilerinin zayıf olduğu sonucunu desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Endeks Getirisi, BİST Turizm, Faiz Oranı Duyuruları, TCMB, Olay Çalışması

Kaynakça

Ada, S.S. et al. (2013), “Politik seçimler, referandumlar ve hisse senedi getirileri: İMKB örneği”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 50(579), 23-40.
Aktaş, H. et al. (2018), “The effects of foreign central bank monetary policies on BIST100 index volatility”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 25(3), 749-756.
Al-Najjar, B. (2014), “Corporate governance, tourism growth and firm performance: Evidence from publicly listed tourism firms in five Middle Eastern countries”, Tourism Management, (42), 342-351.
Armitage, S. (1995), “Event Study Methods and Evidence on Their Performance”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 8(4), 25-52.
Assefa, T.A. et al. (2017), “Stock returns and interest rates around the World: A panel data approach”, Journal of Economics and Business, 89, 20-35.
Asteriou, D. et al. (2013), “The London 2012 Olympic Games announcement and its effect on the London Stock Exchange”, Journal of Economic Studies, 40(2), 203-221.
Barrows, C.W. & A. Naka (1994), “Use of macroeconomic variables to evaluate selected hospitality stock returns in the US”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 13(2), 119-128.
Bayır, M. & N. Abdi̇oğlu (2020), “The effect of interest rate corridor on Turkish financial markets”, Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 9(5), 3244-3263.
Bellemore, D.H. & L.H. Blucher (1959), “A study of stock splits in the post war years”, Financial Analysts Journal, 15(5), 19-26.
Beninga, S. (2008), Financial Modeling, (3. edt.), London: The MIT Press.
Berk, J. et al. (2012), Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, (6. edt.), USA: Prentice Hall.
Bernanke, B.S. & K.N. Kuttner (2005), “What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?”, The Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1221-1257.
Bilson, C.M. et al. (2001), “Selecting macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stock market returns”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 9(4), 401-426.
Bloom, B.A.N. & L.A. Jackson (2016), “Abnormal stock returns and volume activity surrounding lodging firms' CEO transition announcements”, Tourism Economics, 22(1), 141-161.
Borde, S.F. et al. (1999), “Stock price reaction to dividend increases in the hotel and restaurant sector”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 23(1), 40-52.
Brown, S.J. & J.B. Warner (1980), “Measuring security price performance”, Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 205-258.
Brown, S.J. & J.B. Warner (1985), “Using daily stock returns, The case of event studies”, Journal of Financial Economics, 14, 3-31.
Burton, E.T. & S.N. Shah (2013), Behavioral Finance, Understanding The Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates, New Jersey: John Wiley.
Cave, J. et al. (2009), “Supply-side investments: an international analysis of the return and risk relationship in the travel & leisure sector”, Tourism Management, 30(5), 665-673.
CBRT (2021a), Central Bank Monetary Policy Framework, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Monetary+Policy+Framework>, 30.11.2020.
CBRT (2021b), 1 Week Repo Rate, <https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Interest+Rates/1+Week+Repo>, 30.11.2020.
Çelik, M.S. & R. Koç (2019), “Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki uçak krizinin Borsa İstanbul (BİST) turizm ve enerji şirket hisselerine etkisi üzerine bir event study analizi”, Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(1), 1-15.
Çelik, Ş. et al. (2015), “TCMB para politikası kararlarındaki değişimlerin ve TCMB, FED ve ECB sözlü yönlendirmelerin BIST100 oynaklığı üzerindeki etkisinin analizi (2002-2014)”, Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (103), 51-83.
Cengiz, V. (2009), “Parasal aktarım mekanizması işleyişi ve ampirik bulgular”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (33), 225-247.
Çetin, M. (2016), “Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) para politikası uygulamalarının gelişimi”, Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 8(14), 67-101.
Chadwick, M.G. (2018), “Dependence of the 'Fragile Five' and 'Troubled Ten' emerging market financial systems on US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty”, Research in International Business and Finance, 49, 251-268.
Chan, F. & C. Lim (2011), “Tourism stock performance and macro factors”, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12-16 December 2011.
Chang, C. & Y.Y. Zeng (2011), “Impact of terrorism on hospitality stocks and the role of investor sentiment”, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 52(2), 165-175.
Chen, M.-H. (2011), “The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (30), 200-212.
Chen, M.-H. (2013), “Asymmetric response of hospitality stock prices to FED policy actions”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (33), 129-139.
Chen, M.H. et al. (2005), “The impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on hotel stock returns”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 24(2), 243-258.
Chen, M.-H. et al. (2007), “The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach”, Hospitality Management, 26, 200-212.
Chen, M.-H. et al. (2009), “The impact of government weekend policy changes and foreign institutional holdings on weekly effect of tourism stock performance”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 33(2), 139-160.
Christiano, L. et al. (2010), “Monetary policy and stock market booms”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 16402.
Çıtak, L. & E. Ersoy (2016), “Firmaların BIST sürdürülebilirlik endeksine alınmasına yatırımcı tepkisi: Olay çalışması ve ortalama testleri ile bir analiz”, Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 43-57.
Demir, E. & O. Ersan (2018), “The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock returns of Turkish tourism companies”, Current Issues in Tourism, 21(8), 847-855.
Demir, E. et al. (2017), “Macro explanatory factors of Turkish tourism companies' stock returns”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4), 370-380.
Dolley, J.C. (1933), “Characteristics and procedure of common stock split-ups”, Harvard Business Review, 11(3), 316-326.
Domian, D.L. et al. (1996), “Expected inflation, interest rates, and stock returns”, Financial Review, 31(4), 809-830.
Dyckman, T. et al. (1984), “A comparison of event study methodologies using daily stock returns: A simulation approach”, Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 1-30.
Elbir, G. & S.Y. Kandır (2017), “Yatırım duyurularının pay getirileri üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi: Demir-çelik sektörü örneği”, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 16-32.
Ertuğrul, H.M. et al. (2020), “Türkiye'de negatif reel faiz uygulamasının etkileri: seçilmiş temel göstergeler üzerine bir inceleme”, Proceeding of III. International Conference on Empirical Economics and Social Sciences (e-ICEESS’20), 309-323, 12-13 December, Balıkesir, Turkey.
Evrim-Mandacı, P. (2003), “İMKB’de genel seçimler öncesi ve sonrasında anormal fiyat hareketleri”, İMKB Dergisi, 7(27), 1-16.
Fama, E. et al. (1969), “The adjustment of stock prices to new information”, International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
Fama, E.F. (1970), “Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work”, The Journal of Finance, 25(2), Papers and Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association New York, N.Y. December, 28-30, 1969 (May, 1970), 383-417.
Ganev, G. et al. (2002), “Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe”, CASE Report No. 52, Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw.
Gökalp, B.T. (2016), “Para politikası kararlarının hisse senetlerinin fiyatları üzerindeki etkileri”, S.D.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(4), 1379-1396.
Gu, Z. (1994), “Hospitality investment return, risk, and performance indexes: a ten-year examination”, Hospitality Research Journal, 17(3), 17-26.
Günay, F. & L. Koşan (2020), “Maliyet yapışkanlığının pay getirisine etkisi: turizm alt sektörlerinde bir uygulama”, Muhasebe ve Vergi Uygulamaları Dergisi, 13(3), 667-707.
Günay, F. (2020), “Terör, politik ve askeri olaylara Borsa İstanbul turizm sektörü yatırımcı tepkisi”, İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 35(4), 839-856.
Günay, F. et al. (2020), “Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on foreign visitor's demand for Turkey: A scenario analysis”, Journal of Ekonomi, 2(2), 80-85.
Gupta, R. & M. Reid (2020), “Macroeconomic surprises and stock returns in South Africa”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 30(3), 266-282.
Hendricks, K.B. & V.R. Singhal (2008), “The effect of supply chain disruptions on shareholder value”, Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, 19(7-8), 777-791.
Homer, S. & R.E. Sylla (2005), A History of Interest Rates, 4. Edt. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Johnson, M. et al. (2015), “The impact of authorization of the travel promotion act on hotel firm stock returns”, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 56(1), 29-40.
Kanalıcı-Akay, H. & M. Nargeleçekenler (2009), “Para politikası şokları hisse senedi fiyatını etkiler mi? Türkiye örneği”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 27(2), 129-152.
Kaya, İ. et al. (2017), “15 Temmuz darbe girişiminin BİST 30/100 endeksleri üzerine etkisinin olay çalışması (Event Study) yöntemi ile analizi”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 54-67.
Kim, J. & S.S. Jang (2012), “Comparative analyses of hotel REITs: examining risk‐return and performance characteristics”, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 24(4), 594-613.
Kim, S.H. et al. (2009), “Effect of IT investment announcements on the market value of hospitality firms using event study methodology”, Tourism Economics, 15(2), 397-411.
Koç, A. & S. Gürsoy (2020), “Amerikan merkez bankası FED’in para politikası araçları ve bağımsızlığı”, Econder Uluslararası Akademik Dergi, 4(2), 421-447.
Kwansa, F.A. (1994), “Acquisitions, shareholder wealth and the lodging sector: 1980‐1990”, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 6(6), 16-20.
Kyereboah‐Coleman, A. & K.F. Agyire‐Tettey (2008), “Impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock market performance: The case of the Ghana Stock Exchange”, Journal of Risk Finance, 9(4), 365-378.
Leung, W.K. & T.S. Lee (2006), “Institutional investors and the Monday effect on tourism stocks”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 25(3), 348-372.
MacKinlay, A.C. (1997), “Event studies in economics and finance”, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(March), 13-39.
Madanoglu, M. et al. (2007), “The impact of terrorist bombings on the market values of hospitality and tourism enterprises: Global evidence from Turkey, Spain, and Indonesia”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 15(2), 49-60.
Madanoglu, M. et al. (2011), “Franchising and firm financial performance among US restaurants”, Journal of Retailing, 87(3), 406-417.
Morgan, S. (2013), “Global EM Investor The Fragile Five”, <http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/MorganStanleyFragileFive.pdf>, 28.01.2021.
Mutan, O. & A. Topcu (2009), “Türkiye hisse senedi piyasasının 1990-2009 tarihleri arasında yaşanan beklenmedik olaylara tepkisi”, Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Araştırma Raporu, Araştırma Dairesi: 22.06.2009 OCM 2009/01.
Nezerwe, Y. (2013), “Presidential elections and stock returns in Egypt”, Review of Business & Finance Studies, 4(2), 63-68.
Özmen, M. et al. (2012), “Türkiye için döviz kuru, faiz ve enflasyonun hisse senedi getirileri üzerine etkileri”, Ç.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(1), 107-120.
Paramati, S.R. & R. Gupta (2013), “An empirical relationship between exchange rates, Interest rates and stock returns”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, (56), 168-181.
Peterson, P.P. (1989), “Event studies: A review of issues and methodology”, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 28(3), 36-66.
Pilinkus, D. (2010), “Macroeconomic indicators and their impact on stock market performance in the short and long run: The case of the baltic states”, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(2), 291-304.
Poyraz, E. et al. (2020), “Politika faizindeki değişimlerin Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin olay analizi ile incelenmesi”, International Review of Economics and Management, 8(2), 201-220.
Qin, M. et al. (2017), “Mobile app introduction and shareholder returns”, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 31, 173-180.
Ross, S.A. et al. (2002), Corporate Finance (6th edt.), USA: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Şahin, E. et al. (2017), “Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki “Uçak Krizinin” Borsa İstanbul gıda, içecek ve turizm endeksleri üzerine etkisi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 8(3), 473-485.
Sakarya, Ş. (2011), “İMKB kurumsal yönetim endeksi kapmasındaki şirketlerin kurumsal yönetim derecelendirme notu ve hisse senedi getirileri arasındaki ilişkinin olay çalışması (Event Study) yöntemi ile analizi”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(13), 147-162.
Sheel, A. & N. Wattanasuttiwong (1998), “The relevance of financial leverage for equity returns of restaurant firms-an empirical examination”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 6(1), 21-31.
Sheel, A. & Y. Zhong (2005), “Cash dividend announcements and abnormal returns in the lodging and restaurant sectors: An empirical examination”, The Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 13(1), 49-58.
Singal, M. (2012), “Effect of consumer sentiment on hospitality expenditures and stock returns”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (31), 511-521.
Singh, G. & L. Padmakumari (2020), “Stock market reaction to inflation announcement in the Indian stock market: A sectoral analysis”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1723827).
Strong, N. (1992), “Modelling abnormal returns: A review article”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 19(4), 533-553.
Szutowski, D. & M.A. Bednarska (2014), “Short-Term Effects of Innovations on Tourism Enterprise Market Value: Event Study Approach”, in: F. Dias, S. Oliveira, J. Kosmaczewska & Â. Pereira (eds.), New Trends in Tourism Research: A Polish Perspective, (205-217), Portugal: GITUR.
Tanınmış-Yücememiş, B. et al. (2015), “Yeni bir para politikası aracı olarak faiz koridoru: Türkiye’de para politikası kurulu faiz kararlarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi”, Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 7(13), 449-478.
Tüzün, O. et al. (2016), “TCMB ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyeti’nin BIST100 üzerindeki etkisi”, Journal of Yaşar University, 11(44), 263-277.
Uyar, U. et al. (2016), “Gösterge faiz oranı dalgalanmaları ve BIST endeksleri arasındaki ilişkinin eşanlı kantil regresyon ile analizi”, Ege Academic Review, 16(4), 587-598.
Van Horne, J.C. (2002), Financial Management and Policy (12. edt.), New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Wei, Y. (2013), “A comparative analysis of investment returns on hotels and casino hotels through the recession”, Unpublished Master Thesis, Iowa State University.
Welch, I. (2004), “Capital structure and stock returns”, Journal of Political Economy, 112(1), 106-131.
Wong, K.K.F. & H. Song (2006), “Do macroeconomic variables contain any useful information for predicting changes in hospitality stock indices?”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 30(1), 16-33.
Yang, J. et al. (2009), “Merger abnormal returns and payment methods of hospitality firms”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 28(4), 579-585.
Yıldırım, H.H. et al. (2019), “Vergi oranlarındaki indirimin sektör endeksleri üzerindeki etkisi: BİST’de bir araştırma”, Yeni Ekonomik Trendler ve İş Fırsatları, 408-420.
Zopiatis, A. et al. (2018), “Tourism stocks in times of crisis: an econometric investigation of unexpected nonmacroeconomic factors”, Journal of Travel Research, 1-21.

Toplam 94 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	İngilizce
Bölüm	Makaleler
Yazarlar	Fatih Günay 0000-0003-0892-514X Engin Bayraktaroğlu 0000-0002-9956-2593
Erken Görünüm Tarihi	28 Ocak 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi	31 Ocak 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi	27 Nisan 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2022 Cilt: 30 Sayı: 51

Kaynak Göster

APA	Günay, F., & Bayraktaroğlu, E. (2022). Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 91-118. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05
AMA	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E. Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi. Ocak 2022;30(51):91-118. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05
Chicago	Günay, Fatih, ve Engin Bayraktaroğlu. “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”. Sosyoekonomi 30, sy. 51 (Ocak 2022): 91-118. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
EndNote	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E (01 Ocak 2022) Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi 30 51 91–118.
IEEE	F. Günay ve E. Bayraktaroğlu, “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 30, sy. 51, ss. 91–118, 2022, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
ISNAD	Günay, Fatih - Bayraktaroğlu, Engin. “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”. Sosyoekonomi 30/51 (Ocak 2022), 91-118. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
JAMA	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E. Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30:91–118.
MLA	Günay, Fatih ve Engin Bayraktaroğlu. “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 30, sy. 51, 2022, ss. 91-118, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
Vancouver	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E. Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30(51):91-118.

Kapak Resmi İndir

Makale Dosyaları

Tam Metin