Mali Konsolidasyon Programlarının Özel Tüketim Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: PIIGS Ülkelerine Yönelik Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 53, 347 - 369, 29.07.2022

Hatice Dayar Ebru Yalçın

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.18

Öz

Bütçe dengesinin çeşitli nedenlerle bozulması sonucunda dengenin tekrar kurulması amacıyla mali konsolidasyon programları uygulanmaktadır. Mali konsolidasyon, kamu açıklarını ve borç stokunu azaltmaya yönelik uygulanan daraltıcı maliye politikaları olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Çalışmada, mali konsolidasyon programlarının özel tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi 1995-2020 yılı verilerine dayalı olarak PIIGS (Portekiz, İtalya, İrlanda, Yunanistan, İspanya) ülkelerini içeren panel veri analizi ile ortaya koyulmuştur. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında mali konsolidasyon programlarının ülkeler arasında farklı etkiler oluşturduğu görülmüştür. İrlanda ve İtalya’da genişletici mali daralma hipotezini destekleyici bulgular elde edilmiştir. Yunanistan’da ise Keynesyen etkileri destekleyen sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Örneklem yıllarından olan 2019-2020 yıllarında yaşanmış olan ve çalışmaya dahil edilen Covid-19 salgını nedeniyle uygulanan hükümet programlarının ise Portekiz, İtalya ve İrlanda’da özel tüketim harcamalarını olumlu etkilediği görülmüştür. Bu durum mali konsolidasyon dönemlerinde genişletici mali daralma hipotezinin; genişleme dönemlerinde ise Geleneksel Keynesyen modelin geçerli olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mali Konsolidasyon, Kamu Borç Stoku, Bütçe Açığı, Özel Tüketim Harcamaları

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation Programs on Private Consumption Expenditures: Panel Data Analysis for PIIGS Countries

Öz

As a result of the deterioration of the budget balance for various reasons, fiscal consolidation programs are implemented to restore the balance. Fiscal consolidation is a contractionary fiscal policy applied to reduce public deficits and debt stock. This study revealed the effect of fiscal consolidation programs on private consumption expenditures by panel data analysis including PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) countries based on the 1995-2020 data. In the light of the findings, it has been seen that fiscal consolidation programs have different effects between countries. While Ireland and Italy supported the expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis and revealed findings, results supporting Keynesian effects were reached in Greece. It has been observed that the government programs implemented due to the Covid-19 epidemic, which was experienced in 2019-2020, one of the exemplary years and included in the study as a dummy variable, positively affected private consumption expenditures in Portugal, Italy and Ireland. In this case, the expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis in fiscal consolidation periods; shows that the Traditional Keynesian model is valid during the expansion periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt Stock, Budget Deficit, Private Consumption Expenditures

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