Araştırma Makalesi
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Türkiye’de Sektörel Batık Krediler Döngüsü: Ampirik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 55, 173 - 194, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı toplam kredilerin ne kadarının takibe düştüğü ve hangi sektörlerin bu kredileri geri ödeme konusunda sıkıntı yaşadığı, 2000 sonrası dönem aylık veriler kullanılarak Olay Çalışması yöntemi ile incelemektir. Yatırımların en temel unsuru şüphesiz bankalar tarafından sektörlere kullandırılan kredilerdir. Kullandırılan bu kredilerin hangi sektörler üzerinde yoğunlaştığı ve bu sektörlerin ülke ekonomisine katkıları, ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerinin neler olacağı önemli bir sorun teşkil etmektedir. Bir diğer önemli sorun ise bankalarca kullandırılan kredilerin ödenmesindeki geri dönüşüm sorunudur. Kısaca sorunlu krediler olarak adlandırılan bu durum krizlerin öncü göstergesi olması bakımından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Araştırma bulgularında, hemen hemen seçilen bütün sektörlerde kriz öncesi, kriz dönemi ve kriz sonrası dönemlerde belirgin artışların yaşandığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu açıdan değerlendirildiğinde, bankaların batık kredilerindeki artış oranları ekonominin genel gidişatı ile ilgili bir takım öngörüler sunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Accornero, M. et al. (2017), “Non-performing loans and the supply of bank credit: evidence from Italy”, Occasional Papers Banca d’Italia, No: 374.
  • Akca, T. (2022a), “The effect of sectoral bank loans on economic growth in Turkey”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(1), 157-173.
  • Akca, T. (2022b), “Econometric Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Performing Loans in Turkey”, in: S. Sarıbaş (ed.), Duvar Publishing (361 -373), ISBN: 978-625-8109-17-7.
  • Akter, R. & J.K. Roy (2017), “The Impacts of Non-Performing Loan on Profitability: An Empirical Study on Banking Sector of Dhaka Stock Exchange”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, 9(3), 126-132.
  • Alnabulsi, K. & E. Kozarevic (2021), “Interdependence Between Non-Performing Loans, Financial Stability and Economic Growth”, 10th International Scientific Symposium Region, Entrepreneurship, Development, June, Osijek.
  • Ashley, J.W. (1962), “Stock Prices and Changes in Earnings and Dividends: Some Empirical Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 70(1), 82-85.
  • Baker, C. (1956), “Effective Stock Splits”, Harvard Business Review, 34(1), 101-106.
  • Balgova, M. et al. (2017), Reducing Non-Performing Loans: Stylized Facts and Economic Impact, Independent Researcher, London.
  • Basten, M. & A.S. Serrano (2019), “European banks after the global financial crisis: A new landscape”, Journal of Banking Regulation, 20, 51-73.
  • Baş, G. & M. Kara (2021), “The effect of macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans: A time series analysis for Turkey”, Journal of Economics Business and Political Researches, 6(16), 335-347.
  • BDDK (2009), Krizden İstikrara Türkiye Tecrübesi, <https://www.bddk.org.tr/Duyuru/EkGetir/363?ekId=370>, 28.02.2021.
  • Beck, R. et al. (2015), “Key Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample”, OpenEconRev, 26, 525-550.
  • Budiarto, A. (2021), “The Impact of Non-Performing Loans Towards Financial Performance of BPR in Central Java, the Role of Empathy Credit Risk”, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Sustainable Innovation 2020-Accounting and Management (ICoSIAMS 2020), Atlantis Press, 251-258.
  • Campbell J.Y. et al. (1997), The Econometrics of Financial Markets, Second Edition, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
  • Cifter, A. et al. (2009), “Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: evidence from Turkey”, Econ.Modell, 26, 1382-1388.
  • Corrado, C.J. (2011), “Event Studies: A Methodology Review”, Accounting and Finance Review, 51, 207-234.
  • Çollaku, B. & M. Aliu (2021), “Impact of non-performing loans on bank’s profitability: empirical evidence from commercial banks in Kosovo”, Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 7(3), 226-242.
  • Dolley, J.C. (1933), “Characteristics and Procedures of Common Stock Split-Ups”, Harvard Business Review, 11, 316-26.
  • ECB (2020), What are provisions and non-performing loan (NPL) coverage?, <https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/about/ssmexplained/html/provisions_and_nplcoverage.en.html>, 28.02.2021.
  • ECB (2021), Non-Performing Loans, <https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/banking/priorities/npl/html/index.en.html>, 28.02.2021.
  • ECB (2022), ECB Interest Rates, <https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html>, 28.02.2021.
  • Espinoza, R. & A. Prasad (2010), “Non-performing loans in the GCC banking system and their macroeconomic effects”, IMF Working Paper Series No 10/224.
  • Fama, E.F. et al. (1969), “The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information”, International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
  • FED (2018), Federal Reserve Supervision and Regulation Report, <https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-11-supervision-and-regulation-report-banking-system-conditions.htm>, 28.02.2021.
  • FED (2022), Selected Interest Rates, <https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/>, 28.02.2021.
  • Fredriksson, O. & N. Frykström (2019), “Bad Loans and Their Effects on Banks and Financial Stability”, Sveriges RiskBank, Economic Commentaries, No: 2.
  • Ghosh, A. (2015), “Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of nonperforming loans: Evidence from US States”, Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93-104.
  • Giannetti, M. (2002), “On the causes of over-lending: Are guarantees on deposits the culprit?”, CEPR Discussion Papers, No: 4055.
  • Gourinchas, P.O. et al. (1999), Lending Booms: Some Stylized Facts, <www.nber.org/papers/w8249>, 28.02.2021.
  • Jordan, A. & C. Tucker (2013), “Assessing the Impact of Nonperforming Loans on Economic Growth in The Bahamas”, Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, (2), 371-400.
  • Khan, M.A. et al. (2020), “Determinants of non-performing loans in the banking sector in developing state”, Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 5(1), 135-145.
  • Klein, N. (2013), “Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance”, IMF Working Paper No. 13/72.
  • Konchitchki, Y. & D.E. O'Leary (2011), “Event Study Methodologies in Information Systems Research”, International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, 12, 99-115.
  • Koten, A.B. (2021), “Determination of the relationship between non-performing loans and profitability in the Turkish banking system with panel regression analysis”, Press Academia Procedia (PAP), 14, 14-19.
  • Louzis, D. et al. (2012), “Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(4), 1012-1027.
  • Mackinlay, A.C. (1997), “Event Studies in Economics and Finance”, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
  • Messai, A.S. & F. Jouini (2013), “Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-Performing Loans”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 852-860.
  • Mileris, R. (2014), “Macroeconomic Factors of Non-Performing Loans in Commercial Banks”, Ekonomika, 93(1), 22-39.
  • Muhović, A. & J. Subić (2019), “Analysis and impact of main macro and microeconomic factors on the growth of NPLs in the emerging financial markets”, Ekonomika, 65(4), 21-30.
  • Myers, J.H. & A.J. Bakay (1948), “Influence of stock split-ups on market price”, Harvard Business Review, 26(2), 251-265.
  • OECD (2010), Competition, Concentration and Stability in The Banking Sector, <https://www.oecd.org/daf/competition/sectors/46040053.pdf>, 28.02.2021.
  • Sánchez Serrano, A. (2021), “The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending in Europe: An empirical analysis”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 55, 101312.
  • Singh, S.K. et al. (2021), “The Effect of Non-Performing Loan on Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Nepalese Commercial Banks”, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(4), 709-716.
  • Stiglitz, J.E. & A. Weiss (1981), “Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information”, The American Economic Review, 71(3), 393-410.
  • TBB (2021), Banka Kredilerinin Sektörel Dağılımı, <https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/Dokuman/7769/Sektorel_Kredi_Dagilimi_Mart_2021.pdf>, 28.02.2021.
  • TurkStat (2022), Balance of Payments, <https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket/collapse_18/5122/DataGroup/english/bie_odeayrsunum6/>, 28.02.2021.
  • Us, V. (2020), “A Panel VAR Approach on Analyzing Non-Performing Loans in the Turkish Banking Sector”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 14(1), 1-38.
  • Vos, R. (1994), Debt and Adjustment in the World Economy: Structural Asymmetries in North-South Interactions, Palgrave Macmillan London, UK.
  • Zeng, S. (2012), “Bank Non-Performing Loans (NPLS): A Dynamic Model and Analysis in China”, Modern Economy, 3(1), 100-110.

Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 55, 173 - 194, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09

Öz

This study examines how much of the total loans are in follow-up and which sectors have difficulties repaying these loans, using the monthly data from the post-2000 period using the Event Study method. Undoubtedly, banks’ loans to the sectors are the most basic investment element. It is a significant problem on which sectors these loans are concentrated on and the contribution of these sectors to the country's economy, and their effects on the economy. Another critical problem is the recycling problem in the payment of loans extended by banks. This situation, called non-performing loans in short, is of great importance in terms of being the leading indicator of crises. The research findings showed significant increases in almost all selected sectors in the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. From this point of view, the rate of growth in non-performing loans of banks provides some predictions about the general course of the economy.

Kaynakça

  • Accornero, M. et al. (2017), “Non-performing loans and the supply of bank credit: evidence from Italy”, Occasional Papers Banca d’Italia, No: 374.
  • Akca, T. (2022a), “The effect of sectoral bank loans on economic growth in Turkey”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(1), 157-173.
  • Akca, T. (2022b), “Econometric Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Performing Loans in Turkey”, in: S. Sarıbaş (ed.), Duvar Publishing (361 -373), ISBN: 978-625-8109-17-7.
  • Akter, R. & J.K. Roy (2017), “The Impacts of Non-Performing Loan on Profitability: An Empirical Study on Banking Sector of Dhaka Stock Exchange”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, 9(3), 126-132.
  • Alnabulsi, K. & E. Kozarevic (2021), “Interdependence Between Non-Performing Loans, Financial Stability and Economic Growth”, 10th International Scientific Symposium Region, Entrepreneurship, Development, June, Osijek.
  • Ashley, J.W. (1962), “Stock Prices and Changes in Earnings and Dividends: Some Empirical Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 70(1), 82-85.
  • Baker, C. (1956), “Effective Stock Splits”, Harvard Business Review, 34(1), 101-106.
  • Balgova, M. et al. (2017), Reducing Non-Performing Loans: Stylized Facts and Economic Impact, Independent Researcher, London.
  • Basten, M. & A.S. Serrano (2019), “European banks after the global financial crisis: A new landscape”, Journal of Banking Regulation, 20, 51-73.
  • Baş, G. & M. Kara (2021), “The effect of macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans: A time series analysis for Turkey”, Journal of Economics Business and Political Researches, 6(16), 335-347.
  • BDDK (2009), Krizden İstikrara Türkiye Tecrübesi, <https://www.bddk.org.tr/Duyuru/EkGetir/363?ekId=370>, 28.02.2021.
  • Beck, R. et al. (2015), “Key Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample”, OpenEconRev, 26, 525-550.
  • Budiarto, A. (2021), “The Impact of Non-Performing Loans Towards Financial Performance of BPR in Central Java, the Role of Empathy Credit Risk”, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Sustainable Innovation 2020-Accounting and Management (ICoSIAMS 2020), Atlantis Press, 251-258.
  • Campbell J.Y. et al. (1997), The Econometrics of Financial Markets, Second Edition, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
  • Cifter, A. et al. (2009), “Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: evidence from Turkey”, Econ.Modell, 26, 1382-1388.
  • Corrado, C.J. (2011), “Event Studies: A Methodology Review”, Accounting and Finance Review, 51, 207-234.
  • Çollaku, B. & M. Aliu (2021), “Impact of non-performing loans on bank’s profitability: empirical evidence from commercial banks in Kosovo”, Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 7(3), 226-242.
  • Dolley, J.C. (1933), “Characteristics and Procedures of Common Stock Split-Ups”, Harvard Business Review, 11, 316-26.
  • ECB (2020), What are provisions and non-performing loan (NPL) coverage?, <https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/about/ssmexplained/html/provisions_and_nplcoverage.en.html>, 28.02.2021.
  • ECB (2021), Non-Performing Loans, <https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/banking/priorities/npl/html/index.en.html>, 28.02.2021.
  • ECB (2022), ECB Interest Rates, <https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html>, 28.02.2021.
  • Espinoza, R. & A. Prasad (2010), “Non-performing loans in the GCC banking system and their macroeconomic effects”, IMF Working Paper Series No 10/224.
  • Fama, E.F. et al. (1969), “The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information”, International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
  • FED (2018), Federal Reserve Supervision and Regulation Report, <https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-11-supervision-and-regulation-report-banking-system-conditions.htm>, 28.02.2021.
  • FED (2022), Selected Interest Rates, <https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/>, 28.02.2021.
  • Fredriksson, O. & N. Frykström (2019), “Bad Loans and Their Effects on Banks and Financial Stability”, Sveriges RiskBank, Economic Commentaries, No: 2.
  • Ghosh, A. (2015), “Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of nonperforming loans: Evidence from US States”, Journal of Financial Stability, 20, 93-104.
  • Giannetti, M. (2002), “On the causes of over-lending: Are guarantees on deposits the culprit?”, CEPR Discussion Papers, No: 4055.
  • Gourinchas, P.O. et al. (1999), Lending Booms: Some Stylized Facts, <www.nber.org/papers/w8249>, 28.02.2021.
  • Jordan, A. & C. Tucker (2013), “Assessing the Impact of Nonperforming Loans on Economic Growth in The Bahamas”, Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, (2), 371-400.
  • Khan, M.A. et al. (2020), “Determinants of non-performing loans in the banking sector in developing state”, Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 5(1), 135-145.
  • Klein, N. (2013), “Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance”, IMF Working Paper No. 13/72.
  • Konchitchki, Y. & D.E. O'Leary (2011), “Event Study Methodologies in Information Systems Research”, International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, 12, 99-115.
  • Koten, A.B. (2021), “Determination of the relationship between non-performing loans and profitability in the Turkish banking system with panel regression analysis”, Press Academia Procedia (PAP), 14, 14-19.
  • Louzis, D. et al. (2012), “Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(4), 1012-1027.
  • Mackinlay, A.C. (1997), “Event Studies in Economics and Finance”, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
  • Messai, A.S. & F. Jouini (2013), “Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-Performing Loans”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 852-860.
  • Mileris, R. (2014), “Macroeconomic Factors of Non-Performing Loans in Commercial Banks”, Ekonomika, 93(1), 22-39.
  • Muhović, A. & J. Subić (2019), “Analysis and impact of main macro and microeconomic factors on the growth of NPLs in the emerging financial markets”, Ekonomika, 65(4), 21-30.
  • Myers, J.H. & A.J. Bakay (1948), “Influence of stock split-ups on market price”, Harvard Business Review, 26(2), 251-265.
  • OECD (2010), Competition, Concentration and Stability in The Banking Sector, <https://www.oecd.org/daf/competition/sectors/46040053.pdf>, 28.02.2021.
  • Sánchez Serrano, A. (2021), “The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending in Europe: An empirical analysis”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 55, 101312.
  • Singh, S.K. et al. (2021), “The Effect of Non-Performing Loan on Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Nepalese Commercial Banks”, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(4), 709-716.
  • Stiglitz, J.E. & A. Weiss (1981), “Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information”, The American Economic Review, 71(3), 393-410.
  • TBB (2021), Banka Kredilerinin Sektörel Dağılımı, <https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/Dokuman/7769/Sektorel_Kredi_Dagilimi_Mart_2021.pdf>, 28.02.2021.
  • TurkStat (2022), Balance of Payments, <https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket/collapse_18/5122/DataGroup/english/bie_odeayrsunum6/>, 28.02.2021.
  • Us, V. (2020), “A Panel VAR Approach on Analyzing Non-Performing Loans in the Turkish Banking Sector”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 14(1), 1-38.
  • Vos, R. (1994), Debt and Adjustment in the World Economy: Structural Asymmetries in North-South Interactions, Palgrave Macmillan London, UK.
  • Zeng, S. (2012), “Bank Non-Performing Loans (NPLS): A Dynamic Model and Analysis in China”, Modern Economy, 3(1), 100-110.
Toplam 49 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Tacinur Akça 0000-0002-4071-9525

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ocak 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 27 Mayıs 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 31 Sayı: 55

Kaynak Göster

APA Akça, T. (2023). Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis. Sosyoekonomi, 31(55), 173-194. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09
AMA Akça T. Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. Ocak 2023;31(55):173-194. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09
Chicago Akça, Tacinur. “Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis”. Sosyoekonomi 31, sy. 55 (Ocak 2023): 173-94. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09.
EndNote Akça T (01 Ocak 2023) Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis. Sosyoekonomi 31 55 173–194.
IEEE T. Akça, “Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 31, sy. 55, ss. 173–194, 2023, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09.
ISNAD Akça, Tacinur. “Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis”. Sosyoekonomi 31/55 (Ocak 2023), 173-194. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09.
JAMA Akça T. Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. 2023;31:173–194.
MLA Akça, Tacinur. “Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 31, sy. 55, 2023, ss. 173-94, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09.
Vancouver Akça T. Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. 2023;31(55):173-94.