Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 59, 405 - 432, 31.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18

Öz

Bu çalışmada, IMF-MONA (Monitoring of Fund Arrangements) programı sınıflandırmaları eşliğinde ekonomik yapısal reformların Türkiye için tanımlanması, 1990-2021 döneminde Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Cumhurbaşkanlığı Resmî Gazete arşivinden ölçümlenmesi ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin BF-ARDL modeliyle incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada Cobb-Douglas üretim fonksiyonunun genişletilmesine dayanan ekonometrik modellerin çözümlenmesi sonucunda, gerçekleştirilen reformların Türkiye’nin büyümesi üzerinde finansal, mali ve reel sektörlerde pozitif/anlamlı ve ticari sektörde ise pozitif/anlamsız etkilere sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, inceleme döneminde Türkiye’de gerçekleştirilen reformların büyümeyi desteklediğini göstermekte ve güçlendirilerek sürdürülebilmesinde önemli bir potansiyele sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Destekleyen Kurum

TÜBİTAK-SOBAG

Proje Numarası

121k526

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma, Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (TÜBİTAK) tarafından 121K526 nolu proje kapsamında desteklenmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Abed, G.T. & H.R. Davoodi (2000), “Corruption, Structural Reforms, and Economic Performance in the Transition Economics”, IMF Working Paper, 00/132.
  • Aksoy, T. (2019), “Structural Reforms and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 22(4), 325-350.
  • Al-Thaqeb, S.A. & B.G. Algharabali (2019), “Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Literature Review”, The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20, e00133.
  • Anderson, D. et al. (2014), “Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: How much pain can structural reforms ease?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(5), 785-799.
  • Becker, R. et al. (2006), “A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bouis, R. et al. (2012), “The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No: 949, 2-62.
  • Brancaccio, E. et al. (2018), “Structural Labour Market Reforms, GDP Growth and the Functional Distribution of Income”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 44, 34-45.
  • Campos, N.F. & R. Horváth (2012), “Reform redux: Measurement, determinants and growth implications”, European Journal of Political Economy, 28(2), 227-237.
  • Chinn, M. et al. (2018), “Impact of uncertainty shocks on the global economy”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 209-211.
  • Christiansen, L. et al. (2013), “Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment”, Journal of International Economics, 89, 347-356.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. & M.A. León-Ledesma (2010), “Smooth Breaks and Non-linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
  • Correa, R. (2002), “Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Latin America: a Sensitivity Analysis”, CEPAL Review, 76, 87-104.
  • Cuestas, J.C. & D. Garrant (2011), “Is Real GDP Per Capita a Stationary Process? Smooth Transitions, Nonlinear Trends and Unit Root Testing”, Empirical Economics, 41, 555-563.
  • Daştan, M. vd. (2020), “Yapısal Reformların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Geçiş Ekonomilerinden Kanıtlar”, Maliye Dergisi, 179, 1-32.
  • de Almeida, L.A. & V. Balasundharam (2018), “On the impact of structural reforms on output and employment: Evidence from a cross-country firm-level analysis”, IMF, WP/18/73.
  • de Haan, J. & R. Wiese (2022), “The Impact of Product and Labour Market Reform on Growth: Evidence for OECD Countries Based on Local Projections”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37, 746-770.
  • Easterly, W. et al. (1996), “Has Latin America’s Post-Reform Growth Been Disappointing?”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 1708.
  • Enders, W. & J. Lee (2012), “The flexible Fourier form and Dickey-Fuller type unit root tests”, Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
  • Escaith, H. & S. Morley (2000), The Impact of Structural Reforms on Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Empirical Estimation, CEPAL Macroeconomia No: 1.
  • Falcetti, E. et al. (2006), “Reforms and Growth in Transition: Re-Examining The Evidence”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 34, 421-445.
  • Fischer, K. & A. Stiglbauer (2018), “Structural reforms for higher productivity and growth”, Monetary Policy and the Economy, Q2/18, 132-152.
  • Greenaway, D. et al. (2002), “Trade Liberalisation and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 67, 229-244.
  • Harvey, D.I. et al. (2008), “A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 12(3), 1-22.
  • IMF (2015), “Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Initial Considerations for The Fund”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, <http://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • IMF (2020), “World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, <https://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • IMF (2023), “World Economic Outlook Update: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, <https://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • IMF-MONA (2022), Monitoring of Fund Arrangements (MONA) Database, <https://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • Kouamé, W.A. & S.J.A. Tapsoba (2019), “Structural reforms and firms’ productivity: evidence from developing countries”, World Development, 113, 157-171.
  • Li, F. et al. (2022), “The relationship between health expenditure, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in the BRICS countries based on the Fourier ARDL model”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-20.
  • Lin, J.Y. & Z. Liu (2000), “Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 49(1), 1-21.
  • Loayza, N.V. et al. (2005), Regulation and macroeconomic performance, Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • Lora, E. & F. Barrera (1997), “A Decade of Structural Reform in Latin America: Growth, Productivity, and Investment are not What They Used to Be”, Inter American Development Bank Office Working Paper, Green Series No: 350.
  • Marrazzo, P.M. & A. Terzi (2017), “Structural reform waves and economic growth”, Europen Central Bank Working Paper, No: 2111.
  • McNown, R. et al. (2018), “Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration”, Appl. Econ., 50(13), 1509-1521.
  • Nardo, M. et al. (2005), “Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide”, OECD Statistics Working Papers, No. 2005/03.
  • Ostry, J.D. et al. (2009), “Structural reforms and economic performance in advanced and developing countries”, IMF Occasional Paper No: 268.
  • Ostry, J.D. et al. (2021), “Growth‐equity trade‐offs in structural reforms”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 68(2), 209-237.
  • Ozgur, O. et al. (2022), “Nuclear energy consumption and CO2 emissions in India: Evidence from Fourier ARDL bounds test approach”, Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 54(5), 1657-1663.
  • Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(6), 361-1401.
  • Pesaran, M.H. et al. (2001), “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Prati, A. et al. (2013), “Which Reforms Work Under What Institutional Environment? Evidence from A New Data Set on Structural Reforms”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3), 946-968.
  • Romer, P.M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, 1994(5), 1002-1037.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X.X. (1997), “I Just Ran Two Million Regressions”, The American Economic Review, 87(2), 178-183.
  • Sertić, M.B. et al. (2015), “Impact of Labour Market Reforms on Economic Activity in European Union: Short Term Costs and Long Term Benefits”, Financial Theory and Practice, 39(1), 83-107.
  • Solarin, S.A. (2019), “Modelling the relationship between financing by Islamic banking system and environmental quality: evidence from bootstrap autoregressive distributive lag with Fourier terms”, Qual. Quantity, 53(6), 2867-2884.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Staehr, K. (2003), “Reforms and economic growth in transition economies: Complementarity, sequencing and speed”, Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT, Discussion Papers.
  • Swaroop, V. (2016), “World Bank’s experience with structural reforms for growth and development”, World Bank, MFM Discussion Paper No: 11.
  • Swiston, M.A. & M.L. Barrot (2011), The role of structural reforms in raising economic growth in Central America, International Monetary Fund, WP/11/248.
  • TCMB (2016), “Yapısal Reformlar ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Raporları, 978-605-491.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. et al. (2021), “The Impact of Structural Reforms on Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling”, Estudios de Economía, 48(1), 59-87.
  • Yilanci, V. et al. (2020), “Are BRICS countries pollution havens? Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Bounds testing approach with a Fourier function”, Sustain. Cities Soc., 55, 102035.
  • Yu, J.S. et al. (2014), “Financial Sectors Reform and Economic Growth in Morocco: An Empirical Analysis”, Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 13(1), 69-102.

Development of Economic Structural Reform Measurement Methods for Türkiye and Examining the Effects on Growth

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 59, 405 - 432, 31.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18

Öz

This study aims to define the economic structural reforms for Türkiye accompanied by the IMF-MONA program classifications, to measure them from the Official Gazette archive of the Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye in the period 1990-2021 and to examine their effects on economic growth with the BF-ARDL model. As a result of analysing the econometric models based on the expansion of the Cobb-Douglas production function in the study, it has been determined that the reforms carried out have positive/meaningful effects on Türkiye’s growth in the financial, fiscal and real sectors and positive/meaningless in the trade sector. These results show that the reforms carried out in Türkiye support growth and indicate that it has a significant potential to be sustained and strengthened.

Proje Numarası

121k526

Kaynakça

  • Abed, G.T. & H.R. Davoodi (2000), “Corruption, Structural Reforms, and Economic Performance in the Transition Economics”, IMF Working Paper, 00/132.
  • Aksoy, T. (2019), “Structural Reforms and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 22(4), 325-350.
  • Al-Thaqeb, S.A. & B.G. Algharabali (2019), “Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Literature Review”, The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20, e00133.
  • Anderson, D. et al. (2014), “Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: How much pain can structural reforms ease?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(5), 785-799.
  • Becker, R. et al. (2006), “A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bouis, R. et al. (2012), “The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No: 949, 2-62.
  • Brancaccio, E. et al. (2018), “Structural Labour Market Reforms, GDP Growth and the Functional Distribution of Income”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 44, 34-45.
  • Campos, N.F. & R. Horváth (2012), “Reform redux: Measurement, determinants and growth implications”, European Journal of Political Economy, 28(2), 227-237.
  • Chinn, M. et al. (2018), “Impact of uncertainty shocks on the global economy”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 209-211.
  • Christiansen, L. et al. (2013), “Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment”, Journal of International Economics, 89, 347-356.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. & M.A. León-Ledesma (2010), “Smooth Breaks and Non-linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
  • Correa, R. (2002), “Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Latin America: a Sensitivity Analysis”, CEPAL Review, 76, 87-104.
  • Cuestas, J.C. & D. Garrant (2011), “Is Real GDP Per Capita a Stationary Process? Smooth Transitions, Nonlinear Trends and Unit Root Testing”, Empirical Economics, 41, 555-563.
  • Daştan, M. vd. (2020), “Yapısal Reformların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Geçiş Ekonomilerinden Kanıtlar”, Maliye Dergisi, 179, 1-32.
  • de Almeida, L.A. & V. Balasundharam (2018), “On the impact of structural reforms on output and employment: Evidence from a cross-country firm-level analysis”, IMF, WP/18/73.
  • de Haan, J. & R. Wiese (2022), “The Impact of Product and Labour Market Reform on Growth: Evidence for OECD Countries Based on Local Projections”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37, 746-770.
  • Easterly, W. et al. (1996), “Has Latin America’s Post-Reform Growth Been Disappointing?”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 1708.
  • Enders, W. & J. Lee (2012), “The flexible Fourier form and Dickey-Fuller type unit root tests”, Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
  • Escaith, H. & S. Morley (2000), The Impact of Structural Reforms on Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Empirical Estimation, CEPAL Macroeconomia No: 1.
  • Falcetti, E. et al. (2006), “Reforms and Growth in Transition: Re-Examining The Evidence”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 34, 421-445.
  • Fischer, K. & A. Stiglbauer (2018), “Structural reforms for higher productivity and growth”, Monetary Policy and the Economy, Q2/18, 132-152.
  • Greenaway, D. et al. (2002), “Trade Liberalisation and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 67, 229-244.
  • Harvey, D.I. et al. (2008), “A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 12(3), 1-22.
  • IMF (2015), “Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Initial Considerations for The Fund”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, <http://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • IMF (2020), “World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, <https://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • IMF (2023), “World Economic Outlook Update: Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, <https://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • IMF-MONA (2022), Monitoring of Fund Arrangements (MONA) Database, <https://www.imf.org>, 23.08.2022.
  • Kouamé, W.A. & S.J.A. Tapsoba (2019), “Structural reforms and firms’ productivity: evidence from developing countries”, World Development, 113, 157-171.
  • Li, F. et al. (2022), “The relationship between health expenditure, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in the BRICS countries based on the Fourier ARDL model”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-20.
  • Lin, J.Y. & Z. Liu (2000), “Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 49(1), 1-21.
  • Loayza, N.V. et al. (2005), Regulation and macroeconomic performance, Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • Lora, E. & F. Barrera (1997), “A Decade of Structural Reform in Latin America: Growth, Productivity, and Investment are not What They Used to Be”, Inter American Development Bank Office Working Paper, Green Series No: 350.
  • Marrazzo, P.M. & A. Terzi (2017), “Structural reform waves and economic growth”, Europen Central Bank Working Paper, No: 2111.
  • McNown, R. et al. (2018), “Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration”, Appl. Econ., 50(13), 1509-1521.
  • Nardo, M. et al. (2005), “Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide”, OECD Statistics Working Papers, No. 2005/03.
  • Ostry, J.D. et al. (2009), “Structural reforms and economic performance in advanced and developing countries”, IMF Occasional Paper No: 268.
  • Ostry, J.D. et al. (2021), “Growth‐equity trade‐offs in structural reforms”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 68(2), 209-237.
  • Ozgur, O. et al. (2022), “Nuclear energy consumption and CO2 emissions in India: Evidence from Fourier ARDL bounds test approach”, Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 54(5), 1657-1663.
  • Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(6), 361-1401.
  • Pesaran, M.H. et al. (2001), “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Prati, A. et al. (2013), “Which Reforms Work Under What Institutional Environment? Evidence from A New Data Set on Structural Reforms”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3), 946-968.
  • Romer, P.M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, 1994(5), 1002-1037.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X.X. (1997), “I Just Ran Two Million Regressions”, The American Economic Review, 87(2), 178-183.
  • Sertić, M.B. et al. (2015), “Impact of Labour Market Reforms on Economic Activity in European Union: Short Term Costs and Long Term Benefits”, Financial Theory and Practice, 39(1), 83-107.
  • Solarin, S.A. (2019), “Modelling the relationship between financing by Islamic banking system and environmental quality: evidence from bootstrap autoregressive distributive lag with Fourier terms”, Qual. Quantity, 53(6), 2867-2884.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Staehr, K. (2003), “Reforms and economic growth in transition economies: Complementarity, sequencing and speed”, Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT, Discussion Papers.
  • Swaroop, V. (2016), “World Bank’s experience with structural reforms for growth and development”, World Bank, MFM Discussion Paper No: 11.
  • Swiston, M.A. & M.L. Barrot (2011), The role of structural reforms in raising economic growth in Central America, International Monetary Fund, WP/11/248.
  • TCMB (2016), “Yapısal Reformlar ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Raporları, 978-605-491.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. et al. (2021), “The Impact of Structural Reforms on Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling”, Estudios de Economía, 48(1), 59-87.
  • Yilanci, V. et al. (2020), “Are BRICS countries pollution havens? Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Bounds testing approach with a Fourier function”, Sustain. Cities Soc., 55, 102035.
  • Yu, J.S. et al. (2014), “Financial Sectors Reform and Economic Growth in Morocco: An Empirical Analysis”, Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 13(1), 69-102.
Toplam 53 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Büyüme, Makro İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ömer Yalçınkaya 0000-0002-1210-2405

Vedat Kaya 0000-0002-7206-4236

Gökhan Erkal 0000-0002-5007-5065

Proje Numarası 121k526
Erken Görünüm Tarihi 26 Ocak 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ocak 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 9 Haziran 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 32 Sayı: 59

Kaynak Göster

APA Yalçınkaya, Ö., Kaya, V., & Erkal, G. (2024). Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi. Sosyoekonomi, 32(59), 405-432. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18
AMA Yalçınkaya Ö, Kaya V, Erkal G. Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi. Sosyoekonomi. Ocak 2024;32(59):405-432. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18
Chicago Yalçınkaya, Ömer, Vedat Kaya, ve Gökhan Erkal. “Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi Ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi”. Sosyoekonomi 32, sy. 59 (Ocak 2024): 405-32. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18.
EndNote Yalçınkaya Ö, Kaya V, Erkal G (01 Ocak 2024) Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi. Sosyoekonomi 32 59 405–432.
IEEE Ö. Yalçınkaya, V. Kaya, ve G. Erkal, “Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 32, sy. 59, ss. 405–432, 2024, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18.
ISNAD Yalçınkaya, Ömer vd. “Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi Ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi”. Sosyoekonomi 32/59 (Ocak 2024), 405-432. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18.
JAMA Yalçınkaya Ö, Kaya V, Erkal G. Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi. Sosyoekonomi. 2024;32:405–432.
MLA Yalçınkaya, Ömer vd. “Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi Ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 32, sy. 59, 2024, ss. 405-32, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.18.
Vancouver Yalçınkaya Ö, Kaya V, Erkal G. Türkiye İçin Ekonomik Yapısal Reform Ölçüm Yöntemlerinin Geliştirilmesi ve Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin İncelenmesi. Sosyoekonomi. 2024;32(59):405-32.