Optimal Nüfus ve Ekolojik Sürdürülebilirlik: Türkiye için Bir ARDL Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 64, 535 - 556, 26.04.2025

Başak Karşıyakalı , Mehmet Çetin

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.02.23

Öz

Demografik bir unsur olan nüfus, iktisadın teorik ve politik anlamda önemli konularından birini oluşturmaktadır. Sanayi Devrimi’nden sonraki süreçte dünya nüfusunun, kişi başına gelirden daha hızlı artması küresel doğal sermaye stokunu hızla aşındırmıştır. Beşerî faaliyetlerin neden olduğu tahribatın şiddeti, ekolojik ayak izinin biyolojik kapasiteyi aşması ile de kendisini göstermektedir. Birleşmiş Milletler Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri’nin merkezinde insanın ekonomik faaliyetleri ve onun ekolojik ayak izini azaltma çabasının yer alması, dikkatleri yeniden nüfus düzeyine çekmiştir. Bu çalışmada ekolojik ve ekonomik hedefler bağlamında Türkiye için optimal nüfus düzeyinin ne olması gerektiği ARDL yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Bulgular refah düzeyinin artırılması ve kaynakların sürdürülebilirliği açısından Türkiye’nin nüfus düzeyinin olması gerekenin çok üzerinde olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Optimal Nüfus, Ekolojik Ayak İzi, Biyolojik Kapasite

Optimal Population and Ecological Sustainability: An ARDL Approach for Türkiye

Öz

As a demographic element, population constitutes one of the most important theoretical and political issues in economics. During the period following the Industrial Revolution, the world population grew faster than per capita income, rapidly depleting the global stock of natural capital. The severity of the destruction caused by human activities is reflected in the ecological footprint exceeding the biological capacity. The focus of the UN Sustainable Development Goals on human economic activity and reducing its environmental impact has brought attention back to the issue of population growth and its impact on the environment. This study employs the ARDL method to determine the optimal population level for Türkiye, taking into account both ecological and economic objectives. The findings indicate that Türkiye’s population level is much higher than it should be in terms of increasing welfare and resource sustainability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Optimal Population, Ecological Footprint, Biocapacity

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