Finansal Tablo Hile Kırmızı Bayrakları, Riskli Yatırım Niyeti, Fantezi, Güven ve Kendine Güvenin Yatırım Kararlarına Etkisi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 66, 243 - 264

Musa Özçelik

Öz

Bireylerin kırmızı bayrak farkındalıkları yatırım kararlarını etkileyerek hileden korunmalarını sağlayabilir. Ancak bireylerin yatırım kararları bilinçdışı faktörlerden de etkilenebilmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı finansal tablo hile kırmızı bayrakları, riskli yatırım niyeti, fantezi, güven ve kendine güven değişkenlerinin bireylerin yeni ve bilinmeyen yatırım alternatiflerine yatırım niyetleri üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Bulgulara göre yeni ve bilinmeyen yatırım alternatiflerine yatırım niyetini; finansal tablolarda hile kırmızı bayrak farkındalığının olumsuz, fantezi ve riskli yatırım niyetinin olumlu etkilediği söylenebilir. Kendine güvenin ise önemli bir etkisinin olmadığı görülmüştür. Duygusal faktörlerde göz önünde bulundurularak bireylerin hile farkındalıklarının artırılmasına yönelik çalışmalar hile kaynaklı kayıpları azaltabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hile Denetimi , Hile Farkındalığı , Finansal Karar , Duygular , Yeni ve Bilinmeyen Yatırım Araçları

The Effects of Red Flags of Financial Statement Fraud, Risky Investment Intention, Fantasy, Trust and Self-Confidence on Investment Decisions

Öz

Awareness of red flags might prevent individuals from being fraud by impacting their investment decisions, and these decisions might also be affected by unconscious factors. The study aims to investigate the impacts of awareness of red flags of financial statement fraud, risky investment intention, fantasy, trust, and self-confidence of individuals on their investment decisions on new and unknown investment alternatives. Results show that investment decisions on new and unknown alternatives are negatively affected by awareness of red flags of financial statement fraud, while they are positively affected by fantasy and risky investment intention, and trust has no significant effects on investment decisions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fraud Audit , Fraud Awareness , Financial Decision , Emotions , New and Unknown Investment Instruments

Kaynakça

• ACFE Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (2018), Report to the Nations 2018 Global Study on Occupational Fraud and Abuse, <https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/acfepublic/2018-report-to-the-nations.pdf>, 25.05.2024.
• ACFE Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (2024), Occupational Fraud 2024: A Report to the Nations, <https://legacy.acfe.com/report-to-the-nations/2024/>, 25.05.2024.
• Adil, M. et al. (2023), “Do trust in financial institution and financial literacy enhances intention to participate in stock market among Indian investors during COVID-19 pandemic?”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2169998.
• Albrecht, R. et al. (2021), “Risk preferences and risk perception affect the acceptance of digital contact tracing”, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8, 195.
• Alharbey, M. & S. Van Hemmen (2021), “Investor Intention in Equity Crowdfunding. Does Trust Matter?”, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(2), 53.
• Amalia, T. & Subagyo (2024), “E-trust Mediates the Role of the Robo-Advisor Feature on Mutual Fund Investment Intention Through the Bibit Application of Gen Z Malang Raya”, KnE Social Sciences, (6th IRCEB), 408-425.
• Aren, S. & A.N. Zengin (2016), “Influence of Financial Literacy and Risk Perception on Choice of Investment”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 235, 656-663.
• Aren, S. & H. Nayman-Hamamcı (2021a), “Emotional Finance: Determinants of Phantasy”, Kybernetes, 50(5), 1250-1276.
• Aren, S. & H. Nayman-Hamamcı (2023a), “Evaluation of Investment Preference with Phantasy, Emotional Intelligence, Confidence, Trust, Financial Literacy and Risk Preference”, Kybernetes, 52(12), 6203-6231.
• Aren, S. & H. Nayman-Hamamcı (2023b), “The Effect of Individual Cultural Values and Phantasy on Risky Investment Intention”, Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(4), 847-866.
• Aren, S. & H. Nayman-Hamamcı (2023c), “Mediating Effect of Pleasure-Seeking and Loss Aversion in the Relationship Between Phantasy and Financial Risk Tolerance and the Moderating Role of Confidence”, Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 23(2), 24-44.
• Aren, S. & H. Nayman-Hamamcı (2023d), “Risk-Taking and Risk Aversion in the Period of Before and After the 2008 Crisis: Evaluation with Bibliometric Analysis”, Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(2), 488-503.
• Aren, S. & H. Nayman-Hamamcı (2024), “Impact of Conscious and Unconscious Processes on Financial Decision-Making”, Middle East Journal of Management, 11(1), 43-69.
• Aren, S. & S.D. Aydemir (2014), “The Evaluation of Psychological Factors Influencing The Criteria for Individual Investment Decisions”, 2nd International Conference on Management, Finance and Entrepreneurship (ICMFE-2014) (84-94), Türkiye: İstanbul.
• Bargh, J.A. & E. Morsella (2008), “The Unconscious Mind”, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 3(1), 73-79.
• Bargh, J.A. & T.L. Chartrand (1999), “The Unbearable Automaticity of Being”, American Psychologist, 54(7), 462-479.
• Bayat, B. et al. (2019), “The Relation Between Self-Confidence and Risk-Taking Among the Students”, Journal of Education and Health Promotion, 8(1), 27.
• Brandeis, L.D. (1913), “What Publicity Can Do”, Harper’s Weekly, (December 20), 10-13.
• Brazel, J.F. et al. (2015), “Understanding Investor Perceptions of Financial Statement Fraud and Their Use of Red Flags: Evidence from The Field”, Review of Accounting Studies, 20(4), 1373-1406.
• Brazel, J.F. et al. (2021), “Nonfinancial Measures and Fraud Risk: Evaluating Investors' Reactions to Greater Transparency”, Journal of Forensic Accounting Research, 6(1), 1-32.
• Cambridge Dictionary (N.A.), Trust, <https://dictionary.cambridge.org/tr/s%C3%B6zl%C3%BCk/ingilizce/trust>, 01.10.2024.
• Campbell, W.K. et al. (2004), “Narcissism, Confidence, and Risk Attitude”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17(4), 297-311.
• Chin, W.W. (1998), “The Partial Least Squares Approach to Structural Equation Modeling”, in: G.A. Marcoulides (ed.), Modern Methods for Business Research (295-336), Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ.
• Chu, Z. et al. (2017), “Financial Literacy, Portfolio Choice and Financial Well-Being”, Social Indicators Research, 132, 799-820.
• Cohen, J. (1988), Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, 2nd ed., Hillsdale, NJ.
• Corter, J.E. & Y.-J. Chen (2006), “Do Investment Risk Tolerance Attitudes Predict Portfolio Risk?”, Journal of Business and Psychology, 20(3), 369-381.
• Covey, S.R. & R.R. Merrill (2008), The SPEED of Trust: The One Thing that Changes Everything, Simon & Schuster.
• Crain, M.A. et al. (2019), Essentials of Forensic Accounting, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
• Dayı, F. & Ç. Çulha (2024), “Bireylerin Aşırı Güven Eğilimlerinin Riskli Yatırım Niyetleri Üzerine Etkisi”, Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(1), 1-18.
• Dinç-Aydemir, S. & S. Aren (2017), “Do the Effects of Individual Factors on Financial Risk-Taking Behavior Diversify with Financial Literacy?”, Kybernetes, 46(10), 1706-1734.
• Dodds, W.B. et al. (1991), “Effects of Price, Brand, and Store Information on Buyers’ Product Evaluations”, Journal of Marketing Research, 28(3), 307-319.
• Dorminey, J. et al. (2012), “The Evolution of Fraud Theory”, Issues in Accounting Education, 27(2), 555-579.
• Dumanlı, A.N. & S. Aren (2021), “Emotional Finance: As a New Approach to Understanding the Markets”, Journal of Life Economics, 8(2), 173-183.
• Dzamba, A. (2004), “36 Red Flags to Look For When Reviewing Financial Reporting Controls”, Financial Analysis, Planning & Reporting, 4(8), 1-12.
• Efendioğlu, İ.H. (2022), “Kripto Paralara Yatırım Niyetini Etkileyen Bazı Faktörlerin İncelenmesi”, Giresun Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), 291-310.
• Ellsberg, D. (1961), “Risk, Ambiguity, and The Savage Axioms”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75(4), 643-669.
• Fornell, C. & D.F. Larcker (1981), “Evaluating Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error”, Journal of Marketing Research, 18(1), 39-50.
• Grable, J.E. & R.H. Lytton (2003), “The Development of a Risk Assessment Instrument: A Follow-Up Study”, Financial Services Review, 12(3), 257-274.
• Hair, J.F. et al. (2010), Multivariate Data Analysis, 7th ed., Pearson Prentice Hall, NJ.
• Hair, J.F. et al. (2017), Primer on Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), 2nd ed., Sage, Thousand Oaks.
• Hariharan, G. et al. (2000), “Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation for Investors Nearing Retirement”, Financial Services Review, 9(2), 159-170.
• Henseler, J. et al. (2015), “A New Criterion for Assessing Discriminant Validity in Variance-Based Structural Equation Modeling”, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 43, 115-135.
• Hupcey, J.E. et al. (2001), “An Exploration and Advancement of the Concept of Trust”, Journal of Advanced Nursing, 36(2), 282-293.
• International Federation of Accountants IFAC (2009), International Standard on Auditing 240, The Auditor’s Responsibilities Relating to Fraud in an Audit of Financial Statements (ISA No. 240), <https://www.ifac.org/system/files/publications/files/A012%202013%20IAASB%20Handbook%20ISA%20240.pdf>, 25.05.2024.
• Jain, R. et al. (2023), “Investor Personality as a Predictor of Investment Intention - Mediating Role of Overconfidence Bias and Financial Literacy”, International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(12), 5680-5706.
• Johnson, B. (2010), The Hedge Fund Fraud Casebook, John Wiley and Sons, NJ.
• Jureviciene, D. & K. Jermakova (2012), “The Impact of Individuals' Financial Behaviour on Investment Decisions”, Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference (242-250).
• Kahneman, D. & A. Tversky (1972), “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness”, Cognitive Psychology, 3(3), 430-454.
• Kahneman, D. & A. Tversky (2013), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”, in: Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making: Part I (99-127).
• Kang, M. et al. (2016), “Understanding the Determinants of Funders’ Investment Intentions on Crowdfunding Platforms: A Trust-Based Perspective”, Industrial Management & Data Systems, 116(8), 1800-1819.
• Kaya, H. P. & Ş. Uzay (2018), “Hileli Finansal Raporlama ve Bağımsız Denetçinin Sorumluluğu”, Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 20, 721-740.
• Keller, C. & M. Siegrist (2006), “Investing in Stocks: The Influence of Financial Risk Attitude and Values-Related Money and Stock Market Attitudes”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 27(2), 285-303.
• Kiev, A. (2003), The Psychology of Risk: Mastering Market Uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons.
• Kock, N. & G.S. Lynn (2012), “Lateral collinearity and misleading results in variance-based SEM: An illustration and recommendations”, Journal of the Association for Information Systems, 13(7), 2152644.
• Kock, N. (2015), “Common method bias in PLS-SEM: A full collinearity assessment approach”, International Journal of e-Collaboration (IJeC), 11(4), 1-10.
• Li, J. et al. (2016), “Understanding Investment Intention towards P2P Lending: An Empirical Study”, PACIS 2016 Proceedings, 82.
• Lim, T.S. & P.C. Qi (2023), “Investigating the Antecedents of Investment Intention and the Mediating Effect of Investment Self-Efficacy Among Young Adults in Shandong, China”, Global Business & Finance Review, 28(2), 1-16.
• Lusardi, A. & O.S. Mitchell (2014), “The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence”, American Economic Journal: Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1), 5-44.
• Md Husin, M. et al. (2023), “The Impact of Brand Familiarity, Perceived Trust and Attitude on Investors’ Decision-Making in Islamic Stock Market”, Journal of Islamic Marketing, 14(8), 2009-2026.
• Mohta, A. & V. Shunmugasundaram (2024), “Moderating Role of Millennials' Financial Literacy on the Relationship between Risk Tolerance and Risky Investment Behavior: Evidence from India”, International Journal of Social Economics, 51(3), 422-440.
• Navajas, J. et al. (2017), “The Idiosyncratic Nature of Confidence”, Nature Human Behavior, 1(11), 810-818.
• Nayman-Hamamcı, H. & S. Aren (2023), “Mediating Role of Trust in the Impact of Financial Tribalism and Narratives on Risky Investment Intention”, XX. IBANESS Congress Series on Economics, Business and Management, Ohrid / Republic of North Macedonia.
• Nugraha, B.A. & R.A. Rahadi (2021), “Analysis of Young Generations toward Stock Investment Intention: A Preliminary Study in an Emerging Market”, Journal of Accounting and Investment, 22(1), 80-103.
• Özçelik, M. & G. Kurt (2024), “The Measurement of Fraud Perception of Investors and the Mediating Effect of Risk Aversion: The Case of Crypto Assets”, International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJAIM-02-2024-0051
• Pellinen, A. et al. (2015), “Beliefs Affecting Additional Investment Intentions of Mutual Fund Clients”, Journal of Financial Services Marketing, 20, 62-73.
• Poeteri, N.A. et al. (2021), “The Investment Intention among Indonesian Millennials via Peer-to-Peer Lending Applications”, Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 25(4), 787-803.
• Ricciardi, V. & D. Rice (2014), “Risk Perception and Risk Tolerance”, in: H.K. Baker & V. Ricciardi (eds.), Investor Behavior: the Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing (325-345), Canada: John Wiley & Sons.
• Sabri, N.A.A. & N. Afiqah (2016), “The Relationship between the Level of Financial Literacy and Investment Decision-Making Millennials in Malaysia”, Taylor’s Business Review, 6(1), 39-47.
• Sarstedt, M. et al. (2017), “Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling”, in: Handbook of Market Research (587-632), Springer, Cham: Heidelberg.
• Sharma, A. & P.K. Panigrahi (2012), “A Review of Financial Accounting Fraud Detection Based on Data Mining Techniques”, International Journal of Computer Applications, 39(1), 37-47.
• Singleton, T.W. & A.J. Singleton (2010), Fraud Auditing and Forensic Accounting (4th Edition), John Wiley & Sons.
• Sipangkar, H. & C. Wijaya (2020), “Factors Affecting Intention to Investing in Peer-To-Peer Lending Platform Toward Universitas Indonesia Students”, International Journal of Management, 11(5), 751-763.
• Sobaih, A.E.E. & I.A. Elshaer (2023), “Risk-taking, Financial Knowledge, and Risky Investment Intention: Expanding Theory of Planned Behavior Using a Moderating-Mediating Model”, Mathematics, 11(2), 453.
• Soeta, R. et al. (2023), “The Effect of Social Influence and Platform Reputation toward Trust, Investment Intention, and Actual Investment on SMEs with Peer-To-Peer Lending Platform”, Keynesia: International Journal of Economy and Business, 2(1), 1-12.
• Sun, W. et al. (2020), “Switching Intention to Crypto-Currency Market: Factors Predisposing Some Individuals to Risky Investment”, PloS ONE, 15(6), e0234155.
• Taffler, R. (2018), “Emotional Finance: Investment and the Unconscious”, The European Journal of Finance, 24(7-8), 630-653.
• Taffler, R.J. & D.A. Tuckett (2003), “Internet Stocks as ‘Phantastic Objects’: A Psychoanalytic Interpretation of Shareholder Valuation During Dot. Com Mania”, in: Boom or Bust? The Equity Market Crisis: Lessons for Asset Managers and Their Clients (150-62), London: European Asset Management Association.
• Taffler, R.J. & D.A. Tuckett (2010), “Emotional Finance: The Role of the Unconscious in Financial Decisions”, in: H. Baker & J.R. Nofsinger (eds), Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets (95-112), Kent John Wiley & Sons.
• Taffler, R.J. (2014), “Emotional Finance: Theory and Application”, WBS Working Paper, October 14.
• Trang, P.T.M. & N.H. Tho (2017), “Perceived Risk, Investment Performance and Intentions in Emerging Stock Markets”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 269-278.
• Tuckett, D. & D. Tuckett (2011), Minding the Markets: An Emotional Finance View of Financial Instability, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Tuckett, D. & R. Taffler (2008), “Phantastic Objects and the Financial Market’s Sense of Reality: A Psychoanalytic Contribution to the Understanding of Stock Market Instability”, The International Journal of Psychoanalysis, 89(2), 389-412.
• Tuckett, D. et al. (2014), “Tracking Phantastic Objects: A Computer Algorithmic Investigation of Narrative Evolution in Unstructured Data Sources”, Social Networks, 38, 121-133.
• Turnbull, O.H. & M. Solms (2007), “Awareness, Desire, and False Beliefs: Freud in the Light of Modern Neuropsychology”, Cortex, 43(8), 1083-1090.
• Uğur, A. & N. Tosun (2023), “Korkunun Yatırım Kararları Üzerindeki Etkisinin İncelenmesi ve Psikolojik Faktörler ile Yorumlanması: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, Sosyoekonomi, 31(56), 325-354.
• Wärneryd, K.E. (1996), “Risk Attitudes and Risky Behavior”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 17(6), 749-770.
• Wood, R. & J.L. Zaichkowsky (2004), “Attitudes and Trading Behavior of Stock Market Investors: A Segmentation Approach”, The Journal of Behavioral Finance, 5(3), 170-179.
• Woodward, J.D. et al. (2003), Biometrics: A Look at Facial Recognition, Santa Monica: Rand Corp, Santa Monica, CA.
• Yang, M. et al. (2017), “Influencing Lenders’ Repeat Investment Intention in P2P Lending Platforms in China Through Signaling”, PACIS 2017 Proceedings, 72.
• Yang, X. et al. (2019), “Developing and Validating A Theory-Based Model of Crowdfunding Investment Intention - Perspectives from Social Exchange Theory and Customer Value Perspective”, Sustainability, 11(9), 2525.
• Yıldız, E. (2021), Smart PLS ile Yapısal Eşitlik Modellemesi, 2. Baskı. Ankara: Seçkin Publishing.
• Zhang, Y. et al. (2017), “Understanding Investment Intention Towards Social Lending - Based on Social Exchange Theory”, PACIS 2017 Proceedings, 168.