The Effect of Defence Expenditures on Inflation: The Case of Selected NATO Countries

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 66, 195 - 217

Mehtap Öksüz , Neslihan Yılmaz

Öz

The impact of defence expenditures on inflation in selected NATO countries was analysed, taking structural breaks into account in this study. The implementation covers the USA, UK, France, Germany, Italy, ranked first to fifth, and Türkiye, ranked 8th in defence expenditures in NATO. The analysis was executed using data from 1960 to 2022. In this respect, the question of whether defence expenditures create inflationary pressure was expanded with the Fourier function. This method integrates the effect of structural breaks into the model by considering and reviewing the ARDL Bounds Test and ADL Cointegration techniques. Consequently, the findings showed that defence expenditures increased inflation in the USA. However, there was no significant effect in the other examined countries. This case suggested that the impact of defence expenditures on inflation greatly differs from country to country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Defence Expenditures , Inflation , NATO , Fourier

Savunma Harcamalarının Enflasyona Etkisi: Seçilmiş NATO Ülkeleri Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada, NATO’nun savunma harcamaları bakımından ilk beş sırasında yer alan ABD, Birleşik Krallık, Fransa, Almanya ve İtalya ile sekizinci sırada bulunan Türkiye özelinde, savunma harcamalarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak analiz edilmiştir. 1960-2022 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak yapılan analizde, savunma harcamalarının enflasyonist baskı yaratıp yaratmadığı sorusu, yapısal kırılmaların etkisini dikkate alarak modele entegre edilebilen Fourier fonksiyonu ile genişletilmiş ARDL Sınır Testi ve ADL Eşbütünleşme Testi teknikleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, ABD’de savunma harcamalarının enflasyonu artırdığını; incelenen diğer ülkelerde ise anlamlı bir etki bulunmadığını göstermiştir. Bu sonuç, savunma harcamalarının enflasyona etkisinin ülkelere göre büyük farklılıklar gösterdiğini güçlü bir şekilde ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savunma Harcamaları , Enflasyon , NATO , Fourier

Kaynakça

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