TFF 1. LİGDE TAKIMLARIN EV SAHİBİ AVANTAJI VE DEPLASMAN DEZAVANTAJI ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Öz

Futbolda, bir takımın maçı kendi sahasında ya da deplasmanda oynamasının, maçın sonucu üzerinde oldukça etkili olduğu bilinmektedir. Bununla birlikte, her takımın farklı seviyede ev sahibi avantajına ve deplasman dezavantajına sahip olduğu bir gerçektir. Bu çalışmada 2001/2002 ile 2021/2022 yılları arasında en az 3 sezon Türkiye 1. Ligi’nde yer alan takımlar için ev sahibi olma avantajı ve deplasman dezavantajı araştırılmıştır. Poisson regresyonun kullanıldığı çalışmada, takımların avantaj ve dezavantaj değerleri takımların attıkları ve yedikleri gol üzerinden analiz edilmiştir. 53 takım için yapılan tahminler sonucunda, 49 takımın ev sahibi avantajına sahip olduğu buna karşın 22 takımın deplasman dezavantajına sahip olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Takımların ev sahibi avantajı değerlerinin %37,9 ile %72,9 arasında değişmesine karşın takımlar arasında anlamlı bir farklılık olmadığı, deplasman dezavantajı değerlerinin ise %46,7 ile %65,4 arasında değiştiği ve takımlar arasında anlamlı bir farklılık bulunduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Takımların farklı ev sahibi avantajı ve deplasman dezavantajına sahip olmasının sebebi olarak, seyirci avantaj, stadyumun yapısı, deplasman yolculuğu mesafesi ile takımların kendi sahalarında ve deplasmanda uyguladıkları farklı oyun taktikleri gibi nedenler gösterilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• futbol
• ev sahibi avantajı
• deplasman dezavantajı
• poisson regresyon
• genelleştirilmiş tahmin denklemleri

AN INVESTIGATION ON HOME ADVANTAGE AND AWAY DISADVANTAGE OF TEAMS IN THE TFF 1. LEAGUE

Öz

In football, it is well known that whether a team plays a match at their home stadium or away from home can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game. However, it is also a fact that every team has a different level of home advantage and away disadvantage. In this study, the home advantage and away disadvantage for teams that have participated in the Turkish 1. League for at least 3 seasons between 2001/2002 and 2021/2022 were investigated. In the study, Poisson regression has been used to analyze the home advantage and away disadvantage values of teams based on the goals they scored and conceded. The predictions for 53 teams showed that 49 teams had a home advantage, while 22 teams did not have an away disadvantage. The values of the home advantage for teams ranged from 37.9% to 72.9%, but there was no significant difference between teams. On the other hand, the values of the away disadvantage for teams ranged from 46.7% to 65.4%, and there was a significant difference between teams. The reasons for teams having different levels of home advantage and away disadvantage may include factors such as the advantage of having supporters, stadium structure, travel distance for away games, and different tactical approaches taken by teams when playing at home or away.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• football
• home advantage
• away disadvantage
• poisson regression
• generalized estiamted equations

Kaynakça

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