The Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Renewable Energy Consumption in EU Economies: A Panel Bootstrap Causality Analysis

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 18 - 33, 30.06.2025

Merve Güngör Parlakyiğit , Eda Dineri

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15732741

Öz

In addition to frequently discussed economic problems such as fluctuations in energy costs and elimination of exchange rate fluctuations, there are also recent environmental problems such as global warming and climate change, and one of the policy recommendations that can be implemented to eliminate these problems is to increase the use of renewable energy sources. Within this context, the present study aims to investigate the interaction between renewable energy consumption and exchange rates. Furthermore, the analysis incorporates key economic determinants of exchange rates, namely the inflation rate and gross domestic product (GDP). This study aims to analyze the causal relationships between the exchange rate, renewable energy, inflation rate, and GDP in fifteen EU countries over the period 1995–2020, using the Panel Bootstrap Causality Analysis developed by Kónya (2006). The empirical findings reveal a bidirectional Granger causality between renewable energy consumption and exchange rates at the panel level for the selected EU countries. Additionally, the results indicate a unidirectional Granger causality from GDP to exchange rates, while no causal relationship is found between inflation and exchange rates. At the individual country level, the direction and significance of causality relationships vary, reflecting country-specific dynamics. These results suggest that the green transformation initiatives pursued by EU countries—particularly under the European Green Deal and the REPowerEU plan—may also contribute to enhancing exchange rate stability through increased reliance on renewable energy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate , Renewable Energy , Economic Growth , Inflation , Panel Data Analysis

AB Ekonomilerinde Döviz Kuru ile Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Bootstrap Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Enerji maliyetlerindeki dalgalanmalar ve döviz kuru oynaklıklarının giderilmesi gibi sık gündeme gelen ekonomik sorunların yanı sıra son dönemlerde küresel ısınma ve iklim değişikliği gibi çevresel sorunlar ve bu sorunları ortadan kaldırmak için uygulanabilecek politika önerilerinden biri olan yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının kullanımının artırılması yer almaktadır. Bu bağlamda yenilenebilir enerji ile döviz kuru etkileşiminin araştırılması hedeflenmektedir. Aynı zamanda döviz kurunun ekonomik belirleyicilerinden olan enflasyon oranı ve GSYH ile etkileşimi de analize dahil edilmektedir. On beş AB ülkesinde 1995-2020 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmada Kónya (2006) tarafından önerilen Panel Bootstrap Nedensellik Analizi yardımıyla döviz kuru, yenilenebilir enerji, enflasyon oranı ve GSYH arasındaki nedensel bağları analiz etmek bu çalışmanın amacıdır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular doğrultusunda model bazında onbeş AB ülkesi için yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve döviz kuru arasında çift yönlü bir Granger nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Aynı zamanda GSYH’den döviz kuruna doğru tek yönlü bir Granger nedensellik gözlemlenmiştir. Enflasyon ve döviz kuru arasında ise herhangi bir nedensel ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır. Ülke bazında elde edilen nedensellik ilişkileri ise nedenselliğin yönü ve anlamlılığı bakımından ülkeler arasında farklılık göstermektedir. Elde edilen analiz sonucuna göre AB ülkelerinin yenilenebilir enerji politikalarını Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı kapsamında ve REPowerEU planını dikkate alarak yenilenebilir enerji temelli attıkları yeşil dönüşüm adımları aynı zamanda bu ülkelerdeki döviz kuru istikrarına katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz Kuru , Yenilenebilir Enerji , Enflasyon , Ekonomik Büyüme , Panel Veri Analizi.

Etik Beyan

Etik onay izni gerektirmemektedir.

Kaynakça

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