Does Google Trends Search Interest Reflect Electric Vehicle Sales? Evidence from Germany

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 58, 259 - 277, 30.12.2025

Nazlı Gamze Özel

https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1778632

Öz

This study analyzes the long-term relationship between sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Germany from January 2016 to March 2025 and consumer interest measured using Google Trends data. To this end, eight German search terms related to electric vehicles were selected and a single composite search interest index was created using Principal Component Analysis. Subsequently, unit root tests with structural breaks and multiple break cointegration tests were conducted. The findings can be summarized under three headings. First, the evidence reveals that search interest exhibits a significant long-term co-movement with both battery electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales. In particular, structural breaks were identified in the post-2020 period, coinciding with incentive mechanisms, energy crises, and policy changes. Second, the results indicate that the relationship varies in sensitivity across segments. Third, by demonstrating that Google Trends data serves as a leading indicator for tracking consumer interest in the electric vehicle market, the study shows that responses to policy and market shocks are reflected simultaneously in both digital interest and sales. These findings provide actionable insights for early signal generation and demand tracking in marketing strategies and public policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Electric Vehicle , Google Trends , Consumer Search Interest , Structural Breaks , Cointegration , Battery Electric Vehicle , Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle

Google Trends Arama İlgisi Elektrikli Araç Satışlarını Yansıtıyor mu? Almanya’dan Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, Almanya’da Ocak 2016–Mart 2025 döneminde bataryalı elektrikli araç ve şarj edilebilir hibrit araç satışları ile Google Trends verilerinden ölçülen tüketici ilgisi arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, sekiz elektrikli araç odaklı Almanca anahtar kelime seçilmiş ve Temel Bileşenler Analizi ile tek bir bileşik arama ilgisi indeksi oluşturulmuştur. Ardından, yapısal kırılmalı birim kök ve çoklu kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular üç ana noktada sıralanabilir. Birincisi, elde edilen sonuçlar, arama ilgisinin hem bataryalı elektrikli araç hem de şarj edilebilir hibrit araç satışlarıyla uzun dönemli anlamlı bir eş hareketlilik sergilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle 2020 sonrası dönemde, teşvik mekanizmaları, enerji krizleri ve politika değişiklikleri ile örtüşen yapısal kırılmalar tespit edilmiştir. İkincisi, ilişkinin segmentler arasında duyarlılık bakımından farklılaştığına dair kanıtlar elde edilmiştir. Üçüncüsü, Google Trends verisinin elektrikli araç pazarında tüketici ilgisini izlemek için stratejik bir öncü gösterge olduğu ortaya koyularak, politika ile piyasa şoklarına verilen tepkilerin hem dijital ilgiye hem de satışlara eş zamanlı olarak yansıdığı gösterilmektedir. Bu bulgular, pazarlama stratejileri ve kamu politikaları için erken sinyal üretimi ve talep izlemede uygulanabilir içgörüler sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Elektrikli Araç , Google Trends , Tüketici Arama İlgisi , Yapısal Kırılmalar , Eşbütünleşme , Bataryalı Elektrikli Araç , Şarj Edilebilir Hibrit Araç

Kaynakça

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