Ekonomik Büyüme Performansının Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Algısı Anlamında Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2012, Sayı: 28, 31 - 41, 01.08.2012

Volkan Alptekin

Öz

Günümüzde tüm dünyada bir hizmet sektörü olarak turizm sektörü çok hızlıbir gelişme göstermektedir. turizm sektörü bakıldığında tüm dünyadaki hizmet sektörünün tek başına % 30’unu teşkil etmektedir. Turizmin ekonomilere olan net katkısınıhesaplamak pek çok açıdan çok mümkün olamamaktadır. Bununla birlikte ulusal ve uluslar arasıyazında üzerinde mutabakata varılan husus turizmin ekonomik büyümeye olumlu katkıyaptığıdır. Buna göre denilebilmektedir ki Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde turizm özellikle 1980 sonrasıgeçirdiği evrimle rekabet edebilir sektörler arasında değerlendirilebilmektedir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmada tartılan konu ekonomik büyüme ve turizm sektörü gelirleri arasında özellikle uzun dönemli bir ilişki olup olmadığının Vektör Oto Regresif Model ışığında test edilmesidir. Buna göre çalışmanın ampirik bulgularıda göstermektedir ki; turizm gelirleri ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahiptir. Öyle ki; söz konusu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkiyi ölçmeye yarayan kointegrasyon analizi de bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin uzun dönemli olduğunu raporlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma, VAR Analizi

The Effect Of Tourism Sector On The Economic Growth Performance As A Perception Of Sustainable Development: Turkey Case

Öz

Tourism, a service sector, has shown a very rapid development throughout the world. Today, tourism sector accounts for the 30% of total world services trade on its own. Net contribution of tourism to the economies of countries cannot be calculated precisely in that tourism is a coalescence of sectors, that is, it embodies a number of large and small service sectors. Nevertheless, theoretical and empirical studies on this subject, in both national and international literature, have revealed that tourism has a positive effect on economic growth. Based on this consideration, it is seen that tourism in Turkey, which is a tourism country, developed rapidly especially after 1980 and tried to gain competitive advantage in international tourism sector, consistently with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. In this context, the aim of this study is to test whether there is a long term relationship between tourism and economic growth, and to display the likely contribution of the sector to economic growth. Time series regarding the tourism receipts of 1963- 2004 and GNP have been analyzed through VAR model. The empirical findings obtained have shown that tourism has had a positive effect on economic growth, and the cointegration test has proved that there is a mutual relationship between the two variables in the long term. Global system dominating all of the world leads to any social or economic crisis experienced in a country to be felt more or less in all over the world. Under such difficult conditions, when regarding especially in terms of the developed and developing countries, the tourism sector, whose importance grows increasingly, has a character of being a lifesaver. When the natural beauty and cultural richness possessed are marketed with the correct and rational policies, they become an indispensable income resource Aktaş, 2005: 164 . In this respect, tourism becomes dominant as one of the fastest developing sectors in the world. Especially, rapid improvement experienced in information and transportation, beyond the expected one, has accelerated the development of tourism having economic and social dimensions. Beginning from the second half of 20th century, tourism becoming important from economic point of view, constitutes a potential revenue resource for the economies of the developing countries Opuş, 2001: 37 . Along with the development of tourism in a country, shortage of foreign money moderates; competition power of domestic firms with their competitors abroad increases, as a consequence, their productivities; scale economies are utilized; tourism makes an effect on foreign trade balance; it creates employment; and as a whole, leading to an increase in national income, it brings fourth a positive effect on economic growth . As the number of tourist coming to the country, the demand for producing goods and service in destination country also increases. In parallel with the level of increase in demand, if the country has resources to meet the increase in production, all expenditures of the tourists will remain in that country. So, tourism will make important contribution to the economic growth of country. However, if the county cannot find a power to increase the production in parallel with the increase in demand, it will be necessary to import the production factors remaining insufficient. In this case, if the foreign money profits the country provides from tourism are more than foreign money losses, tourism will positively make to the payments balance, otherwise, negatively affect the pavements balance. Tourism, the fastest developing and growing sector of the world, is seen as an instrument of economic development, in terms of developing countries like Turkey, especially. Turkey, after 1980 transformation, realized important progresses in tourism

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Sustainable Development, VAR Analysis.

Kaynakça

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