Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Yeni Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 57, 186 - 203, 30.08.2025

Fatih Akın

https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1621157

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1994-2021 yılları arasında Arjantin, Mısır, Katar, Pakistan ve Türkiye’den oluşan “Yeni Kırılgan Beşli” ülkelerinde ticari açıklık ve finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini panel Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) yöntemi ile incelemektir. Ayrıca, Kónya Bootstrap nedensellik testi de uygulanmıştır. Panel ARDL uzun dönem sonuçlarına göre, ticaret açıklık ve finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif ve anlamlı şekilde etkilediği bulunmuştur. Kónya Bootstrap Nedensellik Yaklaşımı sonuçlarına göre ise, Arjantin, Mısır, Katar ve Pakistan’da ticari açıklıktan ekonomik büyümeye tek yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Katar’da finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye ve Pakistan’da ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişmeye tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, Arjantin’de finansal gelişmeden ticari açıklığa ve Katar’da ticaret açıklıktan finansal gelişmeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Türkiye’de ise herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamıştır. Yeni Kırılgan Beşli ülkeleri için, ticari açıklık ve finansal gelişmeyi eş zamanlı olarak geliştiren politikalar hayati önem taşımaktadır. Bu politikalar, uluslararası pazarlara erişimi artırarak ihracat ve yatırımları teşvik ederken, güçlü bir finansal altyapı ile bu faydaların tam anlamıyla gerçekleşmesini sağlayacaktır. Bu stratejiler, ekonomik istikrarı güçlendirmek ve sürdürülebilir büyümeyi sağlamak açısından kritiktir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticari Açıklık , Finansal Gelişme , Ekonomik Büyüme , Panel ARDL , Bootstrap Nedensellik

Trade Openness, Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Investigation on the New Fragile Five Countries

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of trade openness and financial development on economic growth in the “New Fragile Five” countries, consisting of Argentina, Egypt, Qatar, Pakistan, and Türkiye, between 1994 and 2021, using the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. In addition, the Kónya Bootstrap causality test is also applied. According to the panel ARDL long-run results, trade openness and financial development have positive and significant effects on economic growth. According to the results of the Kónya Bootstrap Causality Approach, unidirectional causality is found from trade openness to economic growth in Argentina, Egypt, Qatar, and Pakistan. Unidirectional causality was found from financial development to economic growth in Qatar and from economic growth to financial development in Pakistan. Moreover, there is a unidirectional causality from financial development to trade openness in Argentina and from trade openness to financial development in Qatar. In Türkiye, however, no causal relationship has been found. For the New Fragile Five countries, policies that simultaneously promote trade openness and financial development are vital. These policies will promote exports and investment by increasing access to international markets, while a strong financial infrastructure will ensure that these benefits are fully realized. These strategies are critical to strengthen economic stability and ensure sustainable growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade Openness , Financial Development , Economic Growth , Panel ARDL , Bootstrap Causality

Kaynakça

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