Rusya-Ukrayna ve ABD-İsrail-İran Savaşları Bağlamında Mekânsal İstihbaratın Rolü

Öz

Amaç - Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ile ABD-İsrail-İran arasındaki çatışmalar bağlamında mekânsal istihbaratın (GEOINT) dönüştürücü rolünü incelenmektir. Yöntem – Çalışma, mekânsal istihbaratın (GEOINT) modern savaş alanındaki rolünü, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ve ABD-İsrail-İran çatışması bağlamında karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlayan nitel bir araştırmadır. Araştırma deseni, iki veya daha fazla vakanın sistematik olarak karşılaştırıldığı “karşılaştırmalı vaka çalışması” (comparative case study) yöntemine dayanmaktadır. Vaka seçiminde, 2022 sonrası Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ve 2025 İran-İsrail çatışması olmak üzere iki kritik çatışma bölgesi belirlenmiştir. Bulgular – Çalışma kapsamında, mekânsal istihbaratın savaşın gidişatını nasıl şekillendirdiğini üç temel eksende analiz etmektedir: (1) ticari uydu görüntülerinin savaş alanını "şeffaf" hale getirerek dezenformasyon kampanyalarını etkisiz kılması ve savaş suçlarının belgelenmesine olanak sağlaması; (2) açık kaynak istihbaratı (OSINT) topluluklarının, mekânsal verileri kullanarak askeri operasyonları eş zamanlı olarak izleme ve doğrulama kapasitesi; (3) yapay zekâ destekli mekânsal analiz araçlarının istihbarat üretim sürecini hızlandırması ve daha geniş bir aktör yelpazesine yayması. Çalışmada, Ukrayna'da ticari uydu sağlayıcılarının sunduğu anlık görüntüleme ve SAR teknolojilerinin, Rusya'nın askeri üstünlüğünü dengelemede oynadığı kritik rolü ve ABD-İsrail-İran çatışmasında ise yapay zekâ ile üretilen sahte uydu görüntülerinin yarattığı yeni nesil bilgi kirliliği tehdidini karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendirmektedir. Sonuç – Mekânsal istihbaratın "savaş alanının demokratikleşmesi" olarak adlandırılan sürecin, uluslararası insancıl hukuk ve stratejik istikrar açısından doğurduğu yeni hukuki ve etik sorunlar ve Türkiye için ulusal mekânsal istihbarat kapasitesinin geliştirilmesine yönelik öneriler sunulmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Mekânsal istihbarat, açık kaynak istihbaratı, savaş alanı şeffaflığı, yapay zekâ, Ukrayna savaşı, İran-İsrail çatışması JEL Kodları: F5, H56, D7, C55, H4

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mekânsal istihbarat
• savaş alanı şeffaflığı
• yapay zekâ
• Ukrayna savaşı
• İran-İsrail çatışması

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma için etik herhangi bir ihlal söz konusu değildir. Etik Kurul İznine gerek yoktur. Aksi bir durumun tespiti halinde Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisinin hiçbir sorumluluğu olmayıp, tüm sorumluluk çalışmanın yazarına aittir.

The Role of Geospatial Intelligence in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine and US-Israel-Iran Wars

Öz

Purpose – To examine the transformative role of spatial intelligence (GEOINT) in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Methodology – This study is a qualitative research aiming to comparatively analyze the role of spatial intelligence (GEOINT) in the modern battlefield in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The research design is based on the “comparative case study” method, where two or more cases are systematically compared. In case selection, two critical conflict zones were identified: the post-2022 Russo-Ukrainian War and the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict. Findings The study analyzes how spatial intelligence shapes the course of war along three main axes: (1) commercial satellite imagery makes the battlefield “transparent,” neutralizing disinformation campaigns and enabling the documentation of war crimes; (2) the capacity of open source intelligence (OSINT) communities to monitor and verify military operations in real-time using spatial data; (3) the acceleration and dissemination of the intelligence production process to a wider range of actors by AI-powered spatial analysis tools. The study comparatively evaluates the critical role of real-time imaging and SAR technologies offered by commercial satellite providers in counterbalancing Russia's military superiority in Ukraine, and the threat of new-generation information pollution created by AI-generated fake satellite images in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Conclusions – This study presents new legal and ethical issues arising from the process called "democratization of the battlefield" by spatial intelligence in terms of international humanitarian law and strategic stability, and offers suggestions for developing Turkey's national spatial intelligence capacity. Keywords: Geospatial intelligence, open-source intelligence, battlefield transparency, artificial intelligence, Ukraine war, Iran-Israel conflict JEL Codes: F5, H56, D7, C55, H4

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Geospatial intelligence
• battlefield transparency
• artificial intelligence
• Ukraine war
• Iran-Israel conflict

Etik Beyan

This study does not involve any ethical violations. Ethics Committee approval is not required. Should any violations be found, the Journal of Social and Economic Research shall bear no responsibility, and all responsibility shall rest with the author of the study.

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