20 December 1942 (Ms 7.2) Tokat Erbaa Earthquake, Evaluation of Macroseismic Characteristics Using the EMS-98 Scale

Öz

In this study, the macroseismic effects of the 20 December 1942 Tokat-Erbaa Earthquake was re-evaluated in the light of historical data. The dataset comprises official telegrams from the Prime Ministry Republican Archives, press reports sourced from Anadolu Agency, period photographs, and contemporary field reports. The earthquake’s impact was analyzed at 96 settlement points using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) and intensity values were assigned based on building type, vulnerability class, damage grades, and spatial distribution. A new isoseismal map was generated based on observed damage using the Empirical Bayesian Kriging method, revealing a consistent attenuation of intensity from the epicenter toward peripheral areas. The intensity levels show strong correlation with surface geology and alluvial basins, with higher intensities identified in areas with weaker ground conditions. This study reconstructs the damage grade and distribution of a historical earthquake using multiple source documents and highlights the role of local site effects in shaping the spatial variability of seismic intensity. The synthesis and analysis presented here provide valuable data and insights for understanding historical destructive earthquakes along active fault zones and for developing science-based decision-support systems aimed at disaster risk reduction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Erbaa-Niksar Earthquake
• Macro-seismic intensity
• EMS-98
• Empirical Bayesian Kriging
• Historical seismology

20 Aralık 1942 Tokat Erbaa Depremi (Ms 7.2) Makrosismik Özelliklerinin EMS-98 Ölçeğine Göre Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 20 Aralık 1942 tarihinde meydana gelen Tokat-Erbaa Depremi’nin makrosismik etkileri tarihsel veriler ışığında yeniden değerlendirilmiştir. Kullanılan veri seti, Başbakanlık Cumhuriyet Arşivi’nde yer alan resmi telgraflar, Anadolu Ajansı kaynaklı basın haberleri, dönem fotoğrafları ve saha raporlarından oluşturulmuştur. Depremin etkisi, Avrupa Makrosismik Ölçeği (EMS-98) esas alınarak 96 yerleşim noktasında analiz edilmiş; yapı türü, kırılganlık sınıfı, hasar dereceleri ve yayılımı dikkate alınarak şiddet değerleri atanmıştır. Hasar gözlemlerine dayalı olarak oluşturulan yeni izosismal harita, Ampirik Bayesyen Kriging (Empirical Bayesian Kriging) yöntemi ile üretilmiş ve depremin etkisinin merkez üssünden çevre alanlara doğru düzenli biçimde uzaklaştıkça azaldığı görülmüştür. Şiddet dereceleri, yüzey jeolojisi ve alüvyon dolgu alanlarıyla yüksek uyum göstermekte; zayıf zeminlerde daha yüksek şiddetler tespit edilmektedir. Çalışma, tarihsel bir depremin hasar derecesi ve dağılımını çok kaynaklı belgelerle yeniden yapılandırmakta ve yerel zemin etkilerinin şiddet dağılımı üzerindeki rolünü ortaya koymaktadır. Bu derleme ve analiz çalışması aktif fay zonlarındaki tarihsel yıkıcı depremleri anlamak ve afet risklerini azaltmaya yönelik bilimsel temelli karar destek sistemleri geliştirmek açısından faydalı veri ve bulgular sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Erbaa-Niksar Depremi
• Makrosismik şiddet
• EMS-98
• Ampirik Bayesyen Kriging
• Tarihsel sismoloji

Kaynakça

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