Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar

Pınar Karahan-Dursun; Serkan Şengül; Şerif Canbay

doi:10.61513/tead.1855209

TR EN

Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisi (FLCC) hipotezinin geçerliliğini 1990–2022 dönemi için test etmektedir. FLCC hipotezi, biyokapasitenin ayak izine bölünmesiyle hesaplanan balıkçılık yük kapasitesinin (FLC) ekonomik büyümenin ilk aşamalarında azaldığını, ancak belirli bir gelir eşiğinden sonra FLC’nin yükseldiğini ifade etmektedir. Çalışmada, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, işsizlik oranı ve kentleşme düzeyi kontrol değişkenleri olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Analizde, açıklayıcı değişkenlerin FLC üzerindeki etkileri genişletilmiş ARDL (AARDL) yöntemi ve zamanla değişen parametre yapısına sahip Kalman filtresi kullanılarak hem statik hem de dinamik çerçevede incelenmiştir. AARDL model sonuçları, FLCC hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ve FLC ile gelir arasında U-şeklinde bir ilişki olduğunu göstermiştir. Bulgular, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların FLC üzerinde hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu, kentleşmenin kısa dönemde çevresel baskıları artırdığı ve işsizliğin kısa dönemde FLC’yi arttırıcı etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Kalman filtresi tahmin sonuçları da ekonomik büyümenin ilk aşamalarında FLC’nin azaldığını ancak gelir belirli bir eşiği aştığında denizel çevre kalitesinin arttığını doğrulamaktadır. Çalışma, Türkiye’de balıkçılık yük kapasitesinin sürdürülebilirliğini ekonomik ve sosyo-demografik göstergeler ışığında değerlendirerek önemli politika önerileri sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Balıkçılık yük kapasitesi, FLCC hipotezi, Genişletilmiş ARDL, Kalman filtresi, Çevresel Phillips eğrisi.

Dynamic Evidence on the Fishing Load Capacity Curve in Türkiye

Öz

This study examines the validity of the Fishing Load Capacity Curve (FLCC) hypothesis for Türkiye for the period 1990 to 2022. The FLCC hypothesis suggests that the fishing load capacity (FLC), calculated as the ratio of biocapacity to the fishing footprint, decreases during the early stages of economic growth but begins to rise again after a certain income threshold is reached. In the empirical analysis, foreign direct investment inflows, the unemployment rate and the level of urbanization are included in the model as control variables. The effects of the explanatory variables on FLC are investigated using the Augmented ARDL (AARDL) approach and the Kalman filter with a time varying parameter structure, which together allow both static and dynamic assessments. The AARDL results confirm the validity of the FLCC hypothesis and indicate a U shaped relationship between FLC and income. The findings also show that foreign direct investment has a positive impact on FLC in both the long and short run, that urbanization increases environmental pressures in the short run and that unemployment exerts a short run increasing effect on FLC. The Kalman filter estimations similarly reveal that FLC declines during the initial phases of economic growth but improves once income surpasses a certain threshold. Overall, the study evaluates the sustainability of Türkiye’s fishing load capacity in light of economic and socio demographic factors and offers important policy implications for decision makers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fishing load capacity, FLCC hypothesis, Augmented ARDL, Kalman filter, Environmental Phillips curve.

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Pınar Karahan-Dursun ^*
0000-0002-8289-6570
Türkiye

Serkan Şengül
0000-0001-9891-9477
Türkiye

Şerif Canbay
0000-0001-6141-7510
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

28 Haziran 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

3 Ocak 2026

Kabul Tarihi

17 Mart 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1855209

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA32TJ42EX

APA

Karahan-Dursun, P., Şengül, S., & Canbay, Ş. (2026). Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(1), 56-75. https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1855209

AMA

1.Karahan-Dursun P, Şengül S, Canbay Ş. Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar. TEAD. 2026;12(1):56-75. doi:10.61513/tead.1855209

Chicago

Karahan-Dursun, Pınar, Serkan Şengül, ve Şerif Canbay. 2026. “Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar”. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi 12 (1): 56-75. https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1855209.

EndNote

Karahan-Dursun P, Şengül S, Canbay Ş (01 Haziran 2026) Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi 12 1 56–75.

IEEE

[1]P. Karahan-Dursun, S. Şengül, ve Ş. Canbay, “Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar”, TEAD, c. 12, sy 1, ss. 56–75, Haz. 2026, doi: 10.61513/tead.1855209.

ISNAD

Karahan-Dursun, Pınar - Şengül, Serkan - Canbay, Şerif. “Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar”. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi 12/1 (01 Haziran 2026): 56-75. https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1855209.

JAMA

1.Karahan-Dursun P, Şengül S, Canbay Ş. Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar. TEAD. 2026;12:56–75.

MLA

Karahan-Dursun, Pınar, vd. “Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar”. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 12, sy 1, Haziran 2026, ss. 56-75, doi:10.61513/tead.1855209.

Vancouver

1.Pınar Karahan-Dursun, Serkan Şengül, Şerif Canbay. Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar. TEAD. 01 Haziran 2026;12(1):56-75. doi:10.61513/tead.1855209

Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 lisansı kullanmaktadır.

Türkiye’de Balıkçılık Yük Kapasitesi Eğrisine İlişkin Dinamik Kanıtlar

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dynamic Evidence on the Fishing Load Capacity Curve in Türkiye

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Anahtar Kelimeler

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Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

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