Modeling Soybean Production in Türkiye: The Effects of Agricultural Support and Prices Using FMOLS, DOLS, CCR, and ARDL Approaches
Öz
Soybean is one of the most strategic agricultural commodities due to its critical role in livestock feed, vegetable oil production, and food security. Despite favorable agroecological conditions, Türkiye remains highly dependent on soybean imports to satisfy domestic industrial demand. This study investigates the determinants of soybean production in Türkiye using annual data covering the 2004–2024 period. The analysis focuses on the effects of real soybean producer prices, real corn prices representing inter-crop competition, and inflation-adjusted agricultural support mechanisms. The study employs Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron unit root tests, Johansen cointegration analysis, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR), and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-based error-correction modeling. In addition, a unified hectare-equivalent real subsidy indicator was developed by converting heterogeneous soybean support instruments into inflation-adjusted real support values. The findings reveal a stable long-run cointegration relationship among soybean production, real soybean prices, real corn prices, and real agricultural support. Long-run estimations indicate that a 1% increase in real soybean prices increases soybean production by approximately 3.77–4.52%, while a 1% increase in real corn prices reduces soybean production by approximately 2.97–3.69%. Real agricultural support positively affects production, with elasticity coefficients ranging between 0.55 and 0.88. The ARDL error-correction coefficient (ECT = −0.827, p<0.01) indicates that nearly 83% of short-run disequilibrium adjusts toward long-run equilibrium within one production cycle. The results suggest that soybean production in Türkiye is primarily driven by long-run profitability conditions, competing crop incentives, and the real effectiveness of agricultural support policies. Strengthening domestic soybean production may therefore contribute to reducing import dependency, improving food-feed security, and enhancing agricultural resilience under increasingly uncertain global agri-food conditions.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Soybean Production, Supply Response, Time Series Analysis, Türkiye
Kaynakça
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