ARIMA Forecasts of Cassava Production Indicators and its Implication for Future Food Supply in Nigeria
Öz
The increasing trend in the cases of armed conflicts and insecurity in Nigeria could have had some devastating effects on the production of cassava and food supply in Nigeria. Therefore, in this perspective, the historical series (1961-2018) was modeled and forecasts of a 7-year period (2019-2025) of some selected cassava production indicators in Nigeria were made. The ARMA/ARIMA forecasts were made from the selected series. ARIMA (5,1,0). ARMA (1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,3) were selected to fit production series, yield series, and harvested area series in that order. Findings showed that output and yield indicators would increase in a slothful manner during the forecast period with an average of 60 million tonnes and 10 tonnes/ha respectively. The trajectory of the area of land that would be cultivated in this period shows farmers would still be adopting more extensive production patterns by expanding the area cultivated instead of cultivating more performing cassava cultivars. The implication of this on food availability was explored under two scenarios: only 84% of total cassava output would be available for consumption; and that 29% of the 84% would be lost during post-harvest activities. In view of the importance of cassava, this study recommends that farmers should plant improved cultivars.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Cassava, ARIMA, Insecurity, Production indicators, Food supply
Kaynakça
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