ARIMA Forecasts of Cassava Production Indicators and its Implication for Future Food Supply in Nigeria

Edamisan Stephen Ikuemonısan; Adeyose Emmanuel Akınbola

TR EN

Nijerya’da Kasava Üretim Göstergelerinin ARIMA Modeli ile Tahmini ve Gelecek Gıda Arzına Etkisi

Öz

Nijerya'daki silahlı çatışmalar ve güvensizlik vakalarındaki artan eğilim, Nijerya'daki kasava üretimi ve gıda tedariki üzerinde bazı yıkıcı etkilere sahip olabilirdi. Bu nedenle, bu perspektifte, tarihsel seri (1961-2018) modellenmiş ve Nijerya'da seçilmiş bazı kasava üretim göstergelerinin yedi yıllık bir döneme (2019-2025) ilişkin tahminleri yapılmıştır. ARMA/ARIMA tahminleri seçilen serilerden yapılmıştır. ARIMA (5,1,0). ARMA (1,1) ve ARIMA (1,1,3) bu sırayla üretim serilerine, verim serilerine ve hasat edilen alan serilerine uyacak şekilde seçilmiştir. Bulgular, tahmin döneminde üretim ve verim göstergelerinin sırasıyla ortalama 60 milyon ton ve 10 ton/ha artacağını göstermiştir. Bu dönemde ekilecek arazinin yörüngesi, çiftçilerin daha performanslı kasava çeşitleri yetiştirmek yerine ekili alanı genişleterek daha kapsamlı üretim modellerini benimseyeceklerini göstermektedir. Bunun gıda mevcudiyeti üzerindeki etkisi iki senaryo altında incelenmiştir. Bunlar; “Toplam kasava üretiminin yalnızca % 84'ü tüketim için kullanılabilir olacağı ve “%84'ün %29'unun hasat sonrası faaliyetler sırasında kaybedileceğidir. Kasavanın önemi göz önüne alındığında, bu çalışma, çiftçilerin iyileştirilmiş çeşitler ekmesini önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kasava , ARIMA , Güvensizlik , Üretim göstergeleri , Gıda arzı

ARIMA Forecasts of Cassava Production Indicators and its Implication for Future Food Supply in Nigeria

Abstract

The increasing trend in the cases of armed conflicts and insecurity in Nigeria could have had some devastating effects on the production of cassava and food supply in Nigeria. Therefore, in this perspective, the historical series (1961-2018) was modeled and forecasts of a 7-year period (2019-2025) of some selected cassava production indicators in Nigeria were made. The ARMA/ARIMA forecasts were made from the selected series. ARIMA (5,1,0). ARMA (1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,3) were selected to fit production series, yield series, and harvested area series in that order. Findings showed that output and yield indicators would increase in a slothful manner during the forecast period with an average of 60 million tonnes and 10 tonnes/ha respectively. The trajectory of the area of land that would be cultivated in this period shows farmers would still be adopting more extensive production patterns by expanding the area cultivated instead of cultivating more performing cassava cultivars. The implication of this on food availability was explored under two scenarios: only 84% of total cassava output would be available for consumption; and that 29% of the 84% would be lost during post-harvest activities. In view of the importance of cassava, this study recommends that farmers should plant improved cultivars.

Keywords

Cassava , ARIMA , Insecurity , Production indicators , Food supply

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Tarım Politikaları

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Edamisan Stephen Ikuemonısan ^* Bu kişi benim
0000-0001-7121-6392
Nigeria

Adeyose Emmanuel Akınbola Bu kişi benim
0000-0002-4588-4220
Nigeria

Yayımlanma Tarihi

28 Haziran 2021

Gönderilme Tarihi

19 Mart 2021

Kabul Tarihi

22 Mayıs 2021

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2021 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA69EC95XR

APA

Ikuemonısan, E. S., & Akınbola, A. E. (2021). ARIMA Forecasts of Cassava Production Indicators and its Implication for Future Food Supply in Nigeria. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(1), 14-30. https://izlik.org/JA69EC95XR

Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 lisansı kullanmaktadır.

Nijerya’da Kasava Üretim Göstergelerinin ARIMA Modeli ile Tahmini ve Gelecek Gıda Arzına Etkisi

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

ARIMA Forecasts of Cassava Production Indicators and its Implication for Future Food Supply in Nigeria

Abstract

Keywords

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

IZ

Kaynak Göster