Nijerya’da Kasava Üretim Göstergelerinin ARIMA Modeli ile Tahmini ve Gelecek Gıda Arzına Etkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 14 - 30, 28.06.2021

Edamisan Stephen Ikuemonısan Adeyose Emmanuel Akınbola

Öz

Nijerya'daki silahlı çatışmalar ve güvensizlik vakalarındaki artan eğilim, Nijerya'daki kasava üretimi ve gıda tedariki üzerinde bazı yıkıcı etkilere sahip olabilirdi. Bu nedenle, bu perspektifte, tarihsel seri (1961-2018) modellenmiş ve Nijerya'da seçilmiş bazı kasava üretim göstergelerinin yedi yıllık bir döneme (2019-2025) ilişkin tahminleri yapılmıştır. ARMA/ARIMA tahminleri seçilen serilerden yapılmıştır. ARIMA (5,1,0). ARMA (1,1) ve ARIMA (1,1,3) bu sırayla üretim serilerine, verim serilerine ve hasat edilen alan serilerine uyacak şekilde seçilmiştir. Bulgular, tahmin döneminde üretim ve verim göstergelerinin sırasıyla ortalama 60 milyon ton ve 10 ton/ha artacağını göstermiştir. Bu dönemde ekilecek arazinin yörüngesi, çiftçilerin daha performanslı kasava çeşitleri yetiştirmek yerine ekili alanı genişleterek daha kapsamlı üretim modellerini benimseyeceklerini göstermektedir. Bunun gıda mevcudiyeti üzerindeki etkisi iki senaryo altında incelenmiştir. Bunlar; “Toplam kasava üretiminin yalnızca % 84'ü tüketim için kullanılabilir olacağı ve “%84'ün %29'unun hasat sonrası faaliyetler sırasında kaybedileceğidir. Kasavanın önemi göz önüne alındığında, bu çalışma, çiftçilerin iyileştirilmiş çeşitler ekmesini önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kasava, ARIMA, Güvensizlik, Üretim göstergeleri, Gıda arzı

ARIMA Forecasts of Cassava Production Indicators and its Implication for Future Food Supply in Nigeria

Öz

The increasing trend in the cases of armed conflicts and insecurity in Nigeria could have had some devastating effects on the production of cassava and food supply in Nigeria. Therefore, in this perspective, the historical series (1961-2018) was modeled and forecasts of a 7-year period (2019-2025) of some selected cassava production indicators in Nigeria were made. The ARMA/ARIMA forecasts were made from the selected series. ARIMA (5,1,0). ARMA (1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,3) were selected to fit production series, yield series, and harvested area series in that order. Findings showed that output and yield indicators would increase in a slothful manner during the forecast period with an average of 60 million tonnes and 10 tonnes/ha respectively. The trajectory of the area of land that would be cultivated in this period shows farmers would still be adopting more extensive production patterns by expanding the area cultivated instead of cultivating more performing cassava cultivars. The implication of this on food availability was explored under two scenarios: only 84% of total cassava output would be available for consumption; and that 29% of the 84% would be lost during post-harvest activities. In view of the importance of cassava, this study recommends that farmers should plant improved cultivars.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cassava, ARIMA, Insecurity, Production indicators, Food supply

Kaynakça

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