Araştırma Makalesi
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Symmetric Market Integration of Wheat in the World

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 1 - 16, 28.06.2022

Öz

This study determined market integration of wheat in the world using price time series (1966-2018) of major world producing countries. The data were sourced from FAO database and data analysis were performed using unit root tests, Engel-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests, Granger causality and impulse response tests, restricted vector auto-regression (VAR), and auto-regression integration moving average (ARIMA) models. The empirical evidence showed that the law of one price (LOP) or parity in prices failed to hold in these markets due to poor co- integration among these markets. Furthermore, the wheat prices of Indian, USA and China markets were efficient as they established long-run equilibrium. However, Australian, Canadian and France markets were observed to be autarkic markets as short-run disequilibrium adjustment processes will not lead to stable long-run prices. It was established that USA market prices is a relative follower and plays little or no role in the global wheat trade. Therefore, the study recommends that a network of wheat commodity network across the globe at almost equal distance from each other for the enhancement of market integration and price transmission should be designed.  

Kaynakça

  • Ahuja, N.L. (2006). Community derivatives market in India: development, regulation and futures prospects. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2:153-62.
  • Beag, F.A. and Singla, N. (2014). Cointegration, causality and impulse response analysis in major Apple markets of India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 27(2):289-298.
  • Berg, A. (2011). The Rise of Commodity Speculation: from Villainous to Venerable. In: Prakash, A.(Ed.), Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets. FAO. Pp. 255-280
  • Christiaensen, L. and Demery, L. (2006). Revisiting the role of agriculture in poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank Report Paper.
  • Easley, D., Engle, R., OHara, M. and Wu, L. (2008). Time-varying arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 6(2):171–207.
  • Ghafoor, A., Mustafa, K., Mushtaq, K. and Abedulla (2009). Cointegration and causality: An application to major mango markets in Pakistan. Lahore Journal of Economics, 14(1):85- 113.
  • Goodwin, B. K., Holt, M.T. and Prestemon, J.P. (2008). North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach. MPRA Paper, 9684. University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Grandmont, J. (1977). Temporary general equilibrium theory. Econometrica, 45:535-72.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(1):424-438.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3): 231-254.
  • Kohl, S.R.L. and Uhl, J.N. (1998). Marketing of Agricultural Product, Fifth Edition, Macmillan, New York.
  • Malinvaud, E. (1966). Statistical Methods of Econometrics. Rand McNally, Chicago. Pp. 195-197.
  • Mushtaq, K., Abdul, G. and Maula, D. (2008). Apple market integration: implications for sustainable agricultural development. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 13: 129-138.
  • Poulton, C., Kydd, J., Wiggins, S. and Doward, A. (2006). State interventions for food price stabilization in Africa: Can it work?. Food Policy, 31: 342-356
  • Prakash, A. and Stigler, M. (2011). The Economics of Information and Behaviour in Explaining Excess Volatility. In: Prakash, A.(Ed.), Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets. FAO. Pp. 281
  • Praveen, K.V. and Inbasekar, K. (2015). Integration of agricultural commodity markets in India. International Journal of Social Science, 4(1): 51-56
  • Rahman, M.M. and Shahbaz, M.(2013).Do imports and foreign capital inflows lead economic growth? cointegration and causality analysis in Pakistan. SouthAsia Economic Journal, 14(1): 59-81.
  • Rapsomanikis, G.(2011). Price Transmission and Volatility Spillovers in Food Markets. In: Prakash, A.(Ed.), Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets. FAO. Pp. 150-151
  • Sadiq, M S., Singh, I.P., Aminu, S. and Grema, I. J. (2017). Volatility and price discovery of palm oil in international markets under different trade regime. Journal of Agricultural Economics, Environment and Social Sciences, 3(1): 33–50.
  • Sadiq, M S., Singh, I.P., Suleiman, Aminu, Umar, S.M., Grema, I.J., Usman, B.I., Isah, M.A. and Lawal, A. T. (2016a). Extent, pattern and degree of integration among some selected cocoa markets in West Africa: An innovative information delivery system. Journal of Progressive Agriculture, 7(2): 22-39.
  • Sadiq, M.S., Karunakaran, N. and Singh, I.P. (2018). Integration of banana markets in India. ICTACT Journal on Management Studies, 4(2): 764-781
  • Sadiq, M.S., Singh, I.P. and Ahmad, M.M. (2020). Market integration of sesame seeds in South Asia. Alanya Academic Review, 4(1): 143-155.
  • Sadiq, M.S., Singh, I.P., Suleiman Aminu, Umar, S.M., Grema, I.J., Usman, B.I., Isah, M.A. and Lawal, A.T. (2016b). Price transmission, volatility and discovery of gram in some selected markets in Rajasthan State, India. International Journal of Environment, Agriculture and Biotechnology, 1(1): 74-89.
  • Shahbandeh, M. (2021). Wheat-production volume worldwide 2011/2012-2020/21. Retrieved on 10/11/2021 from https://www.statista.com/statistics/267268/production-of-wheat- worldwide-since-1990/
  • Thomas, S. (2003). Agricultural Commodity Market in India. Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai, India
  • Wani, M.H., Paul, R.K., Bazaz, N.H. and Manzoor, M. (2015). Market integration and price forecasting of apple in India. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 70(2): 171-181.

Dünyada Buğdayın Simetrik Piyasa Entegrasyonu

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 1 - 16, 28.06.2022

Öz

Bu çalışma dünyanın önde gelen üretici ülkelerinin fiyat zaman serilerini (1966-2018) kullanarak buğdayın dünyadaki piyasa entegrasyonunu belirlemiştir. Veriler FAO veri tabanından alınmış ve birim kök testleri, Engel-Granger ve Johansen eşbütünleşme testleri, Granger nedensellik ve dürtüsellik testleri ve kısıtlı vektör otoregresyon (VAR), otoregresif entegre hareketli ortalama (ARIMA) modelleri kullanılarak veri analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, tek fiyat (LOP) kanununun veya paritenin, bu piyasalar arasındaki zayıf eşbütünleşme nedeniyle bu piyasalarda geçerli olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca Hindistan, ABD ve Çin piyasalarının buğday fiyatları uzun dönemli dengeyi sağladıkları için etkindir. Ancak, Avustralya, Kanada ve Fransa piyasalarının, kısa vadeli dengesizlik ayarlama süreçleri istikrarlı uzun vadeli fiyatlara yol açmayacağı için otarşik piyasalar olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. ABD piyasa fiyatlarının göreli bir takipçisi olduğu ve küresel buğday ticaretinde çok az rol oynadığı veya hiç rol oynamadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu nedenle, çalışma, piyasa entegrasyonunu ve fiyat aktarımını geliştirmek için dünya çapında birbirinden neredeyse eşit mesafede bir buğday emtia ağının tasarlanmasını önermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Ahuja, N.L. (2006). Community derivatives market in India: development, regulation and futures prospects. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2:153-62.
  • Beag, F.A. and Singla, N. (2014). Cointegration, causality and impulse response analysis in major Apple markets of India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 27(2):289-298.
  • Berg, A. (2011). The Rise of Commodity Speculation: from Villainous to Venerable. In: Prakash, A.(Ed.), Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets. FAO. Pp. 255-280
  • Christiaensen, L. and Demery, L. (2006). Revisiting the role of agriculture in poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank Report Paper.
  • Easley, D., Engle, R., OHara, M. and Wu, L. (2008). Time-varying arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 6(2):171–207.
  • Ghafoor, A., Mustafa, K., Mushtaq, K. and Abedulla (2009). Cointegration and causality: An application to major mango markets in Pakistan. Lahore Journal of Economics, 14(1):85- 113.
  • Goodwin, B. K., Holt, M.T. and Prestemon, J.P. (2008). North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach. MPRA Paper, 9684. University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Grandmont, J. (1977). Temporary general equilibrium theory. Econometrica, 45:535-72.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(1):424-438.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3): 231-254.
  • Kohl, S.R.L. and Uhl, J.N. (1998). Marketing of Agricultural Product, Fifth Edition, Macmillan, New York.
  • Malinvaud, E. (1966). Statistical Methods of Econometrics. Rand McNally, Chicago. Pp. 195-197.
  • Mushtaq, K., Abdul, G. and Maula, D. (2008). Apple market integration: implications for sustainable agricultural development. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 13: 129-138.
  • Poulton, C., Kydd, J., Wiggins, S. and Doward, A. (2006). State interventions for food price stabilization in Africa: Can it work?. Food Policy, 31: 342-356
  • Prakash, A. and Stigler, M. (2011). The Economics of Information and Behaviour in Explaining Excess Volatility. In: Prakash, A.(Ed.), Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets. FAO. Pp. 281
  • Praveen, K.V. and Inbasekar, K. (2015). Integration of agricultural commodity markets in India. International Journal of Social Science, 4(1): 51-56
  • Rahman, M.M. and Shahbaz, M.(2013).Do imports and foreign capital inflows lead economic growth? cointegration and causality analysis in Pakistan. SouthAsia Economic Journal, 14(1): 59-81.
  • Rapsomanikis, G.(2011). Price Transmission and Volatility Spillovers in Food Markets. In: Prakash, A.(Ed.), Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets. FAO. Pp. 150-151
  • Sadiq, M S., Singh, I.P., Aminu, S. and Grema, I. J. (2017). Volatility and price discovery of palm oil in international markets under different trade regime. Journal of Agricultural Economics, Environment and Social Sciences, 3(1): 33–50.
  • Sadiq, M S., Singh, I.P., Suleiman, Aminu, Umar, S.M., Grema, I.J., Usman, B.I., Isah, M.A. and Lawal, A. T. (2016a). Extent, pattern and degree of integration among some selected cocoa markets in West Africa: An innovative information delivery system. Journal of Progressive Agriculture, 7(2): 22-39.
  • Sadiq, M.S., Karunakaran, N. and Singh, I.P. (2018). Integration of banana markets in India. ICTACT Journal on Management Studies, 4(2): 764-781
  • Sadiq, M.S., Singh, I.P. and Ahmad, M.M. (2020). Market integration of sesame seeds in South Asia. Alanya Academic Review, 4(1): 143-155.
  • Sadiq, M.S., Singh, I.P., Suleiman Aminu, Umar, S.M., Grema, I.J., Usman, B.I., Isah, M.A. and Lawal, A.T. (2016b). Price transmission, volatility and discovery of gram in some selected markets in Rajasthan State, India. International Journal of Environment, Agriculture and Biotechnology, 1(1): 74-89.
  • Shahbandeh, M. (2021). Wheat-production volume worldwide 2011/2012-2020/21. Retrieved on 10/11/2021 from https://www.statista.com/statistics/267268/production-of-wheat- worldwide-since-1990/
  • Thomas, S. (2003). Agricultural Commodity Market in India. Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai, India
  • Wani, M.H., Paul, R.K., Bazaz, N.H. and Manzoor, M. (2015). Market integration and price forecasting of apple in India. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 70(2): 171-181.
Toplam 26 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Tarım Politikaları
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Mohammed Sanusi Sadıq Bu kişi benim 0000-0003-4336-5723

Invinder Paul Sıngh Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-1886-5956

Muhammad Makarfi Ahmad Bu kişi benim 0000-0003-4565-0683

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Haziran 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Sadıq, M. S., Sıngh, I. P., & Ahmad, M. M. (2022). Symmetric Market Integration of Wheat in the World. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(1), 1-16.