İklim Değişikliğinin İkizcetepeler Barajı Akımlarına Etkilerinin Modellenmesi: 2015-2030 Projeksiyonu

Öz

Sunulan çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin akımlar üzerindeki etkileri modelleme esaslı bir yaklaşımla araştırılmıştır. Çalışma, Akdeniz iklimi karakterine sahip Balıkesir-İkizcetepeler Baraj havzasında, IPCC’nin AR4 kapsamında türetilen ECHAM5 sirkülasyon modeli iklim tahminleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. ECHAM5 modelinin kaba çözünürlüklü A1B ve 20C3M senaryo sonuçları havza ölçeğindeki aylık yağış ve sıcaklıklara indirgenerek, uygulama sahasının gelecek dönem yağış ve sıcaklıkları tahmin edilmiştir. İstatistiksel ölçek indirgeme analizlerini takiben, yağış ve sıcaklıklardaki değişimlerin akışlar üzerindeki olası etkilerini değerlendirebilmek maksadıyla indirgenmiş senaryo sonuçları parametrik bir hidrolojik model yardımıyla akışlara dönüştürülmüştür. ECHAM5 iklim modelinin A1B iklim senaryo sonuçlarına göre İkizcetepeler akımlarında önümüzdeki 15 yıllık süreçte, 1960-1999 referans dönemi istatistiklerine göre yaklaşık %23 oranında bir azalma öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği,ECHAM5,ölçek indirgeme,hidrolojik model

Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Ikizcetepeler Inflows: 2015-2030 Projection

Öz

In the study presented, the impacts of climate change on flows were examined by a modeling based approach. The study has been carried out using climate forecasts of ECHAM5 circulation model simulated in the AR4 of the IPCC for Balikesir-İkizcetepeler watershed having Mediterranean climate characteristics. The future projections of precipitation and temperature changes on the study area have been determined by downscaling the coarse A1B and 20C3M scenario results of ECHAM5 to monthly precipitation and temperature at basin scale. Following the statistical downscaling analyses, the downscaled scenario results have been transformed to runoff by means of a parametric hydrological model to assess the probable impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on runoff. According to the A1B climate scenario results of ECHAM5 climate model, approximately 23% decrease on İkizcetepeler runoff is foreseen with regard to 1960-1999 reference period statistics for the next 15-year period. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change,ECHAM5,downscaling,hydrological model

Kaynakça

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