Detecting Drought Variability by using Two-Dimensional Correlation Analysis

Öz

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been recognized as the standard index that should be used for quantifying and reporting meteorological drought. This study aims to present the application of the two-dimensional correlation method for determining the spatial and temporal variability of drought among the SPI series. Heatmaps were used as a new way of visualizing SPI series which enables visual inspection of dry and wet periods. The developed method was applied on 13 meteorological stations in Central Anatolia. Significant variations in drought behaviour were found in the investigated region even for the stations close to each other.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Drought variability
• standardized precipitation index
• two-dimensional correlation
• drought visualization
• Central Anatolia

Kaynakça

1. Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Oinas, V., Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 97(18), 9875-9880, 2000.
2. Leconte, J., Forget, F., Charnay, B., Wordsworth, R., Pottier, A., Increased Insolation Threshold for Runaway Greenhouse Processes on Earth-Like Planets. Nature, 504(7479), 268-271, 2013.
3. Popp, M., Schmidt, H., Marotzke, J., Transition to a Moist Greenhouse with Co2 and Solar Forcing. Nat Commun, 7, 2016.
4. Mishra, A.K., Singh, V.P., A Review of Drought Concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1), 202-216, 2010.
5. Wilhite, D.A., Glantz, M.H., Understanding: The Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Water International, 10(3), 111-120, 1985.
6. Van Rooy, M.P., A Rainfall Anomaly Index Independent of Time and Space. Notos, 14, 43, 1965.
7. Palmer, W.C., Keeping Track of Crop Moisture Conditions, Nationwide: The New Crop Moisture Index. Weatherwise, 21(4), 156-161, 1968.
8. McKee, T.B.N., J. Doeskin, N., Kleist, J., Drought Monitoring with Multiple Time Scales. 1995.

9. Shafer, B.A., Dezman, L.E., Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (Swsi) to Assess the Severity of Drought Conditions in Snowpack Runoff Areas, in 50th Annual Western Snow Conference. 1982, Western Snow Conference: Reno, Nevada.
10. Willeke, G., Hosking, J., Wallis, J., Guttman, N., The National Drought Atlas. Institute for water resources report, 94, 1994.
11. Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I., A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Clim., 23(7), 1696-1718, 2010.
12. McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kleist, J., The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales, in 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. 1993: Anaheim, CA, . p. 179-184.
13. Guttman, N.B., Accepting the Standardized Precipitation Index: A Calculation Algorithm. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(2), 311-322, 1999.
14. Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wall, N., Widhalm, M., The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(4), 485-488, 2011.
15. Keyantash, J., Dracup, J.A., The Quantification of Drought: An Evaluation of Drought Indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8), 1167-1180, 2002.
16. Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., Moghaddasi, M., Comparison of Seven Meteorological Indices for Drought Monitoring in Iran. Int. J. Climatol., 26(7), 971-985, 2006.
17. Livada, I., Assimakopoulos, V.D., Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Drought in Greece Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 89(3-4), 143-153, 2007.
18. Jamshidi, H., Khalili, D., Zadeh, M.R., Hosseinipour, E.Z. Assessment and Comparison of Spi and Rdi Meteorological Drought Indices in Selected Synoptic Stations of Iran. in World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability - Proceedings of the 2011 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress. 2011.
19. Bandyopadhyay, N., Saha, A.K., A Comparative Analysis of Four Drought Indices Using Geospatial Data in Gujarat, India. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9(5), 2016.
20. Önöz, B., Oğuz, B., İstanbul Su Temini Sistemi Ve Kuraklık Analizi. Teknik Dergi, 1083-1090, 1996.
21. Kömüşcü, A.Ü., Using the Spi to Analyze Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Drought in Turkey. Vol. 11. 1999.
22. Türkeş, M., Tatlı, H., Use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi) and a Modified Spi for Shaping the Drought Probabilities over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 29(15), 2270-2282, 2009.
23. Sırdaş, S., Şen, Z., Meteorolojik Kuraklık Modellemesi ve Türkiye Uygulaması. İTÜ Mühendislik Dergisi, 2(2), 95-103, 2003.
24. Bacanli, Ü.G., Dikbaş, F., Baran, T., Meteorological Drought Analysis Case Study: Central Anatolia. Desalination and Water Treatment, 26(1-3), 14-23, 2011.
25. Karabulut, M., Drought Analysis in Antakya-Kahramanmaraş Graben, Turkey. Journal of Arid Land, 7(6), 741-754, 2015.
26. Bulut, B., Yilmaz, M.T., Analysis of the 2007 and 2013 Droughts in Turkey by Noah Hydrological Model. Teknik Dergi/Technical Journal of Turkish Chamber of Civil Engineers, 27(4), 7619-7634, 2016.
27. Güner Bacanli, Ü., Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Drought in the Aegean Region, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 24(2), 239-249, 2017.
28. Dikbas, F., A Novel Two-Dimensional Correlation Coefficient for Assessing Associations in Time Series Data. International Journal of Climatology, 37(11), 4065-4076, 2017.
29. Sensoy, S., Demircan, M., Ulupınar, Y., Climate of Turkey. Turkish State Meteorological Service.
30. Erinç, S., Applied Climatology and the Climate of Turkey (in Turkish). 1957, Istanbul Technical University, Hydrogeology Institute: Istanbul, Turkey.
31. Bacanli, U.G., Entropy Based Assessment and Palmer Drought Severity Index of Drought Analysis. Scientific Research and Essays, 7(44), 3823-3833, 2012.
32. Zhang, Y., Cai, W., Chen, Q., Yao, Y., Liu, K., Analysis of Changes in Precipitation and Drought in Aksu River Basin, Northwest China. Vol. 2015. 2015. 1-15.
33. Jain, V.K., Pandey, R.P., Jain, M.K., Comparison of Drought Indices for Appraisal of Drought Characteristics in the Ken River Basin. Weather and Climate Extremes, (8), 1-15, 2015.
34. T.C. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı, Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü, Ulusal Kuraklık Yönetimi Strateji Belgesi ve Eylem Planı, 2017-2023.
35. Şener, E., Şener, Ş., Meteorolojik Kuraklığın Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri Tabanlı Zamansal ve Konumsal Analizi: Çorak Gölü Havzası (Burdur-Türkiye) Örneği. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 7(3), 596-607, 2019.
36. Dabanlı, İ., Mishra, A.K., Şen, Z., Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Drought Variability in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 552, 779-792, 2017.
37. Sönmez, F.K., Kömüscü, A.Ü., Erkan, A., Turgu, E., An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dimension of Drought Vulnerability in Turkey Using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Natural Hazards, 35, 243-264, 2005.
38. Kadıoğlu M., Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliği Risk Yönetimi, Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği II. Ulusal Bildiriminin Hazırlanması Projesi Yayını, 172 sf., 2012.
39. Tsakiris, G., & Vangelis, H. Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resources Management, 18(1):1-12, 2004.
40. Dikbas, F., A New Two-Dimensional Rank Correlation Coefficient. Water Resour Manage, 32(5), 1539-1553, 2018.