Trend Analysis of Observed Standart Duration Maximum Precipitation for Istanbul

Öz

Climate variability and change effects each parameter of hydrological cycle. Intensity, duration and frequency of precipitation is the basic information used in the design of bridges, culverts, city storm drainages. In this study, trend analysis of standart duration maximum precipitation was performed for 7 meteorological station equipped with pluviograph and located in İstanbul and around. Data series were divided two equal periods and precipitaion intensity-duration and frequency curves were developed. Except for Kartal MGI, significant increase trend were detected in 6 stations (Sarıyer, Kumköy, Florya, Çorlu, Göztepe ve Şile). As an example, relative difference between first and second half is 30% 5 hour standart duration and 2 years frequecy maximum precipitation for Sarıyer MGI and Q500 design flood discarge increased 60% Bekar Creek in Sarıyer.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trend
• Intensity-duration-frequency curves
• Maximum rainfalls
• climate variability and change
• İstanbul

İstanbul İçin Standart Süreli Gözlenen En Büyük Yağışların Eğilimleri

Öz

İklim değişkenliği ve değişimi, hidrolojik çevrimin her bir parametresini etkilemektedir. Yağışların şiddet, süre ve tekerrürleri köprüler, menfezler, şehir yağmursuyu drenajlarının tasarımında kullanılan temel bilgidir. Bu çalışmada İstanbul ve civarındaki 7 adet plüviograflı MGİ’de ölçülen standart süreli maksimum yağışların eğilim analizleri yapılmıştır. Veri serileri, iki eşit döneme bölünerek yağış şiddet tekerrür eğrileri oluşturulmuştur. Kartal MGİ haricinde 6 istasyonda (Sarıyer, Kumköy, Florya, Çorlu, Göztepe ve Şile) belirgin artış eğilimleri belirlenmiştir. Bir örnek olarak, Sarıyer meteoroloji istasyonunun 5 saatlik standart süreli 2 yıl tekerrürlü maksimum yağışları ilk dönem ve ikinci dönem hesaplanan bağıl farkları %30 ve Sarıyer’de bulunan Bekar deresinde Q500 taşkın debisindeki %60 artış şeklindedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Eğilim
• Yağış şiddet süre tekerrür eğrisi
• maksimum yağışlar
• iklim değişkenliği ve değişimi
• İstanbul

Kaynakça

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