Meteorological Drought Analysis for Helmand River Basin, Afghanistan

Öz

This study evaluates drought at Lashkargah, Farah, Adraskan, and Gardandiwal stations in Helmand River Basin (HRB) in Afghanistan to determine appropriate drought indices for the basin. Thirty seven years of monthly recorded precipitation data from 1979 to 2015 are employed with different drought index (DI) methods which include the Standardized Precipitation Index (Normal-SPI, Log-SPI, and Gamma-SPI), the Percent of Normal (PN), and the Deciles. All the methods are applied to the annual long term precipitation data. The log-SPI and the gamma-SPI predict extreme drought conditions, whereas, the normal-SPI determines wet and less dry conditions. The results emphasize that the PN and the Deciles methods predict more drought years in comparison to the SPI methods. The Deciles method shows longer period of extreme and severe drought than other methods. The five methods indicate various drought intensities in 1985, 1987, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 at all the stations. The extreme drought condition in 2001 at all the stations confirms to the recorded drought reports for the same region. It is noted that since the log-SPI and the gamma-SPI capture the historical extreme and severe drought periods successfully, these are recommended as the drought monitoring indices for Helmand River Basin.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Afghanistan
• deciles
• drought indices
• Helmand River Basin
• PN
• SPI

Kaynakça

1. Zarei A. R., Moghime M. M, and Mahmodi M. R, 2015. Parametric and Non-Parametric Trend of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Using RDI Index, Water Resource and Management, 30, 5479-5500.
2. Sirdas S., and Sen Z., 2003. Spatio-temporal drought analysis in the Tarakya region, Turkey, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48(5), 809-819.
3. Yacoub E., and Tayfur G., 2017. Evaluation and Assessment of Meteorological Drought by Different Methods in Tazara Region, Mauritania, Water Resource and Management, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1510-8.
4. Tsakiris, G., & Vangelis, H., 2005. ‘Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration.’ European Water, 9(10), 3-11.
5. Bazrahshan, J. and Hejabi, S. (2018). ‘A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate.’ Water Resources Management, 32:2611–2624, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1947-z
6. Wang, L., Yua, H., Yang, M., Yang, R., Gao, R. and Wang, Y. (2019). ‘A drought index: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration runoff index.’ Journal of Hydrology, JH 2019, 651-668.
7. Mishra, A.K. and Singh, V.P. (2010). ‘Drought modelling- A review.’ Journal of Hydrology, 403, 157-175.
8. Eslamian, S.Askari, KOA, Singh, VP, Dalezios, NR, GHane, M., Yihdego, Y. and Matouq, M. (2017). ‘A Review of Drought Indices.’ International Journal of Constructive Research in Civil Engineering (IJCRCE), Volume 3, Issue 4, 2017, PP 48-66

9. Bulut, M. and Yilmaz, T. 2016. ‘Türkiye’deki 2007 ve 2013 yılı kuraklıklarının NOAH hidrolojik Modeli ile incelenmesi.’ Teknik Dergi, 27(4), 7619 – 7634.
10. Keskiner, A.D., Cetin, M., Simsek, M. and Akin, S. 2020. ‘Kuraklık riski altındaki havzalarda gölet haznelerinin tasarımı: Seyhan Havzasında Bir Uygulama.’ Teknik Dergi, 31(5), 10189 – 10210.
11. Dikici, M. and Aksel, M. 2021. ‘Evaluation of two vegetation indices (NDVI and VCI) over Asi Basin in Turkey.’ Teknik Dergi, 32(4) (in press).
12. Mehr, A.D., Safari, M.J.S. and Nourani, V. 2021. ‘Wavelet packet-genetic programming: A new model for meteorological drought hindcasting.’ Teknik Dergi, 32(4) (in press).
13. Dikbas, F. and Bacanli, U.G. 2021. ‘Detecting drought variability by using two-dimensional correlation analysis.’ Teknik Dergi, 32(4), (in press).
14. Ahmad, M., and Wasiq, M., 2004. Water resources development in Northern Afghanistan and its implications for Amu Darya Basin (No. 36). World Bank Publications.
15. Miyan, M. A., 2015. Droughts in Asian Least Developed Countries: Vulnerability and sustainability. Weather and Climate Extremes, 7, 8-23.
16. APN, 2015. An International Geosphere‐Biosphere Programme Synthesis Theme on Global Environment Change and Sustainable Development: Needs of Least Developed Countries. A project report by Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research, 16-17.
17. Ashraf M., and Routray J. K., 2015. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Precipitation and Drought in Balochistan Province, Pakistan, Nat Hazards, 77, 229-254.
18. Morid S., Smakhtin V., and Moghaddasi M., 2006. Comparison of Seven Meteorological Indices for Drought Monitoring in Iran, International Journal of Climatology, 26, 971-985.
19. Broshears, R.E., Akbari, M.A., Chornack, M.P., Mueller, D.K., and Ruddy, B.C., 2005. Inventory of ground-water resources in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5090.
20. Wolf, A. T., Natharius, J. A., Danielson, J. J., Ward, B. S., and Pender, J. K., 1999. International River Basins of the World. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 15(4), 387-427.
21. Thomas, V., Azizi, M. A., and Behzad, K., 2016. Developing transboundary water resources: What perspectives for cooperation between Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan? Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, Case Study.
22. Goes, B. J. M., Howarth, S. E., Wardlaw, R. B., Hancock, I. R., and Parajuli, U. N., 2015. Integrated wate resources management in an insecure river basin: a case study of Helmand River Basin, Afghanistan. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 32(1), 3-25.
23. Mckee TB., Doesken NJ., and Kleist J., 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993. American Meteorological Society Boston, MA, USA, 179–18.
24. Cacciamani C., Morgillo A., Marchesi S., and Pavan V., 2007. Monitoring and forecasting drought on a regional scale: Emilia-Romagna region, Methods and Tools for Drought Analysis and Management, Springer, 29-48.
25. Barua S., Ng A., Perera B., 2010. Comparative Evaluation of Drought Indexes: Case Study on the Yarra River Catchment in Australia, Water Resour Plan Manag, 137, 215-226.
26. Angelidis P., Maris F., Kotsovinos N., Hrissanthou V., 2012. Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions, Water Resources Management, 26(9), 2453-2473.
27. Thom HCS., 1958. A note on the gamma distribution, Mon Weather Rev 86:117–122.
28. Abramowitz M., and Stegun A., eds 1965. Handbook of mathematical formulas, graphs and mathematical tables, Dover Publications Inc, New York.
29. Hayes M. J., 2006 Drought Indices, Willy Online Library Center. (Online). < https://drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm
30. Gibbs, W. J., and Maaher, J. V., 1967. Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bureau of Meteorology, Bulletin No. 48, Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne, Australia.