Büyük Menderes Akımlarının Frekans Tabanlı Tahmini

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 7325 - 7343, 01.01.2016

Fatih Dikbaş

Öz

Bu çalışmada, mevsimsel salınımlar gösteren, içsel
bağımlı ve kaotik zaman serilerinin veriye dayalı tahmini için yeni bir yöntem
önerilmektedir. Yöntem, gözlenmiş serilerdeki değer aralıklarının frekanslarına
bağlı olarak mevcut verilerin zamansal ve niceliksel ilişkilerine dayalı olarak
eksik veriler için tahminler üretmektedir. Frekans tabanlı tahmin adı verilen yöntem,
genel bir yaklaşıma sahiptir ve test/onay/düzenleme/ağırlık katsayısı belirleme
gibi işlemler yapılması gerekmemektedir. Geliştirilen yöntem, Büyük Menderes
havzasındaki 34 istasyonun 9050 adet aylık toplam akım gözleminin tahmini ve
1210 adet eksik verinin tamamlanmasında kullanılmıştır. Gözlemler ve tahminler
arasında tüm istasyonlar için elde edilen yüksek korelasyon değerleri, önerilen
yöntemin akım verilerinin tahmininde başarılı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Frekans tabanlı tahmin, veriye dayalı modelleme, aylık toplam akım verileri, Büyük Menderes Havzası, eksik verilerin tamamlanması

Frequency Based Prediction of Büyük Menderes Flows

Öz

In this study, a new method for the data driven prediction of
interrelated and chaotic time series data showing seasonal fluctuations is
proposed. The method produces predictions based on the temporal and
quantitative relationships among the available data related with the
frequencies of the value ranges of observed data. The method, which is called
frequency based prediction, has a general approach and requires no
testing/validation/adjustment/ weight determination steps. The developed method
is used for predicting 9050 monthly total flow observations of 34 stations on Büyük Menderes River and for infilling 1210 missing data. High
correlations obtained between the observations and predictions for all stations
show that the proposed method is successful in the prediction of streamflow
data.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Frequency based prediction, data-driven modeling, monthly total streamflow data, Büyük Menderes Basin, estimation of missing data

Kaynakça

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