Öz
Bu çalışmada, Gaziantep ili merkez meteorolojik gözlem
istasyonundan elde edilen 2000-2010 yılları arasındaki kısıtlı periyoda ait 11
yıllık güneş radyasyonu ve meteorolojik
değişkenler (ortalama sıcaklık, bağıl nem, güneşli gün sayısı, rüzgar hızı,
buhar basıncı) arasındaki ilişki genetik programlama tekniği ile formüle
edilerek tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar ölçülmüş veriler
ile istatistiksel olarak ve trend karakteristiklerine göre karşılaştırılmıştır.
Yapılan model karşılaştırmaları sonucunda mevcut veriler ile en iyi tahmin sonuçlarını
lineer genetik programlama tekniğinin verdiği tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen
genetik programlama denklemleri kullanılarak türetilen sentetik verilerin güneş
enerjisi santralleri projelerinin fizibilite ve tasarımında faydalı veri olarak
kullanılabileceği düşünülmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Global güneş radyasyonu genetik programlama trend analizi LOWESS
Kaynakça
- Engel-Cox, J. A., Nair, N.L., Ford, J.L., Evaluation of solar and meteorological data relevant to solar energy technology performance in Malaysia, Journal of Sustainable Energy&Environment, 3, 115-124, 2012.
- Traore, S., Güven, A., New algebraic formulations of evapotranspiration extracted from Gene-Expression Programming in the tropical seasonally dry regions of West Africa, J. Irrig. Sci., 31(1), 1-10, 2013.
- Güven, A., Kişi, O., Daily pan evaporation modeling using linear genetic programming technique, Irrig. Sci, 29(2), 135-145, 2011.
- Güven, A., Kişi, O., Estimation of suspended sediment yield in natural rivers using machine-coded linear genetic programming, Wat. Resour. Manag., 25(2), 691-704, 2011.
- Kişi, O., Güven, A, A machine-code based genetic programming for suspended sediment concentration estimation , Advances in Engineering Software, 41(7-8), 939-945, 2010.
- Brameier, M., On linear genetic programming. Ph.D. thesis, University of Dortmund, 2004.
- Nordin, J.P., A Compiling Genetic Programming System that Directly Manipulates the Machine Code. In Advances in Genetic Programming, K. Kinnear, Jr. (ed.), MIT Press, Cambridge MA, 1994.
- Nordin, J.P., Francone, F., Banzhaf, W., Efficient Evolution of Machine Code for CISC Architectures Using Blocks and Homologous Crossover. In Advances in Genetic Programming 3, MIT Press, Cambridge MA., 1998.
- Ferreira, C., Gene expression programming in problem solving. In: Proceedings of the 6th online world conference on soft computing in industrial applications (invited tutorial), 2001a.
- Ferreira, Gene expression programming: a new adaptive algorithm for solving problems, Complex Syst., 13(2), 87–129, 2001b.
- Akaike, H., Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle, Proc., 2nd Int. Symp. on Information Theory, B. N. Petrov and F. Csaki, eds., Academiai Kiado, Budapest, Hungary, 267–281, 1973.
- Hersel, D.R., Hirsch, R.M., Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Studies in Environmental Science 49, New York: Elsevier, 1992.
Öz
In this study, the
relationship between the global solar radiation and the meteorological
variables (average temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and vapor
pressure) for limited data from 2000 to 2010 years obtained from the Gaziantep
central meteorological observation station is estimated by formulating using genetics
programming technique. The prediction results are compared with the observed
ones statistically, and also based on their trend characteristics. The model
comparison efforts revealed that linear genetic programming gave the best
prediction results. It is believed that the derived genetic programming
formulations can successfully be used in feasibility and design stage of solar
power plants.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Global solar radiation genetic programming trend analysis LOWESS
Kaynakça
- Engel-Cox, J. A., Nair, N.L., Ford, J.L., Evaluation of solar and meteorological data relevant to solar energy technology performance in Malaysia, Journal of Sustainable Energy&Environment, 3, 115-124, 2012.
- Traore, S., Güven, A., New algebraic formulations of evapotranspiration extracted from Gene-Expression Programming in the tropical seasonally dry regions of West Africa, J. Irrig. Sci., 31(1), 1-10, 2013.
- Güven, A., Kişi, O., Daily pan evaporation modeling using linear genetic programming technique, Irrig. Sci, 29(2), 135-145, 2011.
- Güven, A., Kişi, O., Estimation of suspended sediment yield in natural rivers using machine-coded linear genetic programming, Wat. Resour. Manag., 25(2), 691-704, 2011.
- Kişi, O., Güven, A, A machine-code based genetic programming for suspended sediment concentration estimation , Advances in Engineering Software, 41(7-8), 939-945, 2010.
- Brameier, M., On linear genetic programming. Ph.D. thesis, University of Dortmund, 2004.
- Nordin, J.P., A Compiling Genetic Programming System that Directly Manipulates the Machine Code. In Advances in Genetic Programming, K. Kinnear, Jr. (ed.), MIT Press, Cambridge MA, 1994.
- Nordin, J.P., Francone, F., Banzhaf, W., Efficient Evolution of Machine Code for CISC Architectures Using Blocks and Homologous Crossover. In Advances in Genetic Programming 3, MIT Press, Cambridge MA., 1998.
- Ferreira, C., Gene expression programming in problem solving. In: Proceedings of the 6th online world conference on soft computing in industrial applications (invited tutorial), 2001a.
- Ferreira, Gene expression programming: a new adaptive algorithm for solving problems, Complex Syst., 13(2), 87–129, 2001b.
- Akaike, H., Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle, Proc., 2nd Int. Symp. on Information Theory, B. N. Petrov and F. Csaki, eds., Academiai Kiado, Budapest, Hungary, 267–281, 1973.
- Hersel, D.R., Hirsch, R.M., Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Studies in Environmental Science 49, New York: Elsevier, 1992.
Ayrıntılar
| Bölüm | Teknik Not |
|---|---|
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Temmuz 2016 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 20 Mart 2017 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2016 Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3 |